The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has cut its ex-gantry petrol price to N699 per liter, a reduction of N129 from the previous N828, and a move that is already reshaping competition in a market long dominated by import-driven pricing.
Sources inside the refinery confirmed the adjustment, and the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) later validated it.
“The refinery reduced the price to N699 per liter and told marketers that we can start buying the product for the festive season,” IPMAN’s national president, Abubakar Garima, told TheCable.
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The price cut has added to the growing shift in Nigeria’s petroleum market. For decades, petrol prices in Nigeria were heavily anchored to the cost of imported products. Dangote’s arrival has tilted that equation. By lowering its ex-depot price to N699, the refinery is setting a benchmark that importers cannot match under current global and domestic conditions.
Aliko Dangote, who has repeatedly expressed the refinery’s goal to dominate the local market, is competing directly with importers.
“Prices are going down. The reason why prices have to go down is because we have to also compete with imports,” he said, adding that both diesel and petrol “will continue to be sold in the market at a very reasonable price.”
The cut is already putting pressure on the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), which reduced pump prices across its Lagos and Abuja retail stations in late November to N900 and N940 per liter. Industry sources say that although the NNPC and independent marketers will be forced to make further adjustments once Dangote’s new price filters through the market, they will not be able to compete.
Nigeria’s long-standing dependence on imported petrol is mired in exorbitant import costs. Even when global prices eased, Nigeria faced elevated landing costs because of the weaker naira, freight charges, insurance, and port fees. During late 2024, the landing cost oscillated between N829 and N976 per liter. In November 2024, figures widely circulated by market operators, including the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN), put the landing cost in the N970s. By October 2025, updated industry data showed a drop to the low N830s as global prices cooled and shipping routes stabilized.
Those figures explain why imported fuel cannot compete with Dangote’s new pricing. At N699, the refinery is offering a product more than N130 below the best-case import landing cost and nearly N280 below the high end seen in late 2024. This leaves NNPC and independent importers in no position to bring in foreign petrol and sell at affordable rates without incurring heavy losses.
Against this backdrop, Nigeria’s petrol import is expected to drop further. Nigeria spent N1.28 trillion on petrol imports in the third quarter of 2025, down from N2.3 trillion in Q2, but it remains a major burden on foreign exchange reserves. The drop in Q3 was tied to lower global price averages and occasional improvement in refined product availability. Nigeria’s import bill remains large because domestic output has only recently begun to scale.
In 2020, petrol imports cost N2.01 trillion. By 2021, that figure rose sharply to N4.56 trillion. In 2022, it hit N7.71 trillion. In 2023, it eased slightly to N7.51 trillion. Then came the surge in 2024: N15.42 trillion, driven by a more than 40 percent slide in the naira and higher global shipping and insurance fees.
These costs created long-standing volatility in Nigeria’s retail petrol market, forcing pump prices to chase global dynamics. With Dangote offering large volumes priced locally, that structure is beginning to shift. The refinery’s latest cut puts pressure on all fuel retailers — including NNPC — to align with domestic, rather than imported, pricing.
That shift is happening as Dangote pursues an ambitious expansion plan. The refinery, currently rated at 650,000 barrels per day, is already producing diesel, aviation fuel, and petrol. Work is ongoing to raise total output to 1.4 million barrels per day within three years, a scale that would make it the world’s largest single-site refinery.
The Federal Government has welcomed this expansion, calling it a “game-changer” with the potential to lift West Africa’s entire energy landscape. Beyond stabilizing domestic supply, the government sees Nigeria becoming a regional export hub, with refined products heading to neighboring countries and beyond.
There is also reprieve for one of the refinery’s biggest challenges. OPEC’s latest data shows Nigeria pumped 1.436 million barrels per day in November 2025, up from 1.401 million barrels per day in October. That trend gives the country more room to allocate crude for domestic refining.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s national petrol consumption has slowed. Federal data shows average daily usage fell to 52.9 million liters in November 2025. Analysts say this is linked to earlier high pump prices, changing transport habits, and the gradual entry of Dangote’s products, which are expected to stabilize supply and lower retail prices in 2026.
With the N699 price now in play, traders say the market has entered a new phase. The days when imported fuel determined domestic pricing are fading. As Dangote ramps up production in 2026, the downstream sector is shifting toward a new price anchor — one set inside Nigeria rather than offshore. However, energy analysts warn that this will be impacted by international oil prices.