Renowned Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo made a significant projection on Wednesday, indicating that shipments of Apple’s MacBook computers are anticipated to decline by approximately 30% year over year in 2023, with an estimated total of 17 million units.
Kuo’s analysis provides insights into the challenges facing Apple’s MacBook lineup.
One key factor contributing to this decline, according to Kuo, is the noticeable drop in demand for the new 15-inch MacBook Air, which has declined “significantly.” This decline in demand was particularly evident after the back-to-school shopping period, traditionally a period of heightened sales activity.
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Consequently, Kuo predicts that MacBook shipments during Apple’s fourth quarter will be lower than they have been in previous years. Historically, the fourth quarter is an important period for Apple as consumers make holiday-related technology purchases.
Kuo attributes the decrease in MacBook shipments to several factors. One of them is the diminishing demand from customers who have transitioned to working from home and may not require new laptops. Additionally, Kuo mentions the “waning consumer appeal” of Apple’s mini-LED displays and silicon, which may have led to a dip in consumer interest.
The 15-inch MacBook Air, in particular, is expected to see a decline of more than 20% in shipments this year.
In an interesting development, Kuo noted that Apple does not plan to release any new products during the fourth quarter. This pause in product launches is seen as an opportunity for the company to “clear inventory and reformulate new product and marketing strategies” for the coming year.
The MacBook lineup has been a significant part of Apple’s product portfolio, and a decline in shipments is noteworthy. As Apple navigates these challenges, it may need to reassess its product strategy and marketing approach to reignite consumer interest in its laptops.
Kuo said that the ASP of assembly and key components for the MacBook is significantly higher than that of general Windows notebooks (by more than three times), which significantly impacts the revenues and profits of key MacBook suppliers.
Additionally, ongoing shifts in work and education patterns in a post-pandemic world may continue to influence the demand for personal computing devices. Apple’s response to these dynamics will likely be closely observed by both investors and tech enthusiasts.
Apple expects the M3 processor to boost MacBook shipments in 2024, but it remains to be seen whether this strategy will be effective, Kuo said.