Eutelsat expects to generate more than €10 billion ($11.1 billion) in commercial services revenue from 2032 to 2040 as it takes a leading role in the European Union’s planned satellite communications network, strengthening its position in Europe’s effort to reduce dependence on Elon Musk’s Starlink.
The Franco-British satellite operator said on Thursday that its role in the EU’s Infrastructure for Resilience, Interconnectivity and Security by Satellite (IRIS²) programme had substantially expanded its revenue backlog, even as its existing businesses faced weaker demand. The company has been selected to lead the low Earth orbit (LEO) segment of the network, which will comprise 330 satellites.
The first IRIS² satellites are scheduled for launch in 2029, with initial services expected from 2030. The programme is intended to provide secure satellite communications for European governments and commercial customers, while giving the bloc greater control over critical communications infrastructure.
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Eutelsat’s growing importance comes as European governments reassess their reliance on US technology providers following President Donald Trump’s return to office. The company owns OneWeb, which operates one of the few existing LEO satellite networks capable of providing an alternative to SpaceX’s Starlink.
The commercial opportunity is significant, but the returns will take time to materialize. Eutelsat must invest billions of euros in infrastructure before IRIS² reaches full commercial operation, while its traditional video broadcasting business continues to weaken. The project therefore offers a potential long-term growth engine rather than an immediate solution to the company’s operating challenges.
Eutelsat said its backlog now includes €8.9 billion in revenue associated with designing and building the IRIS² network, with most of that revenue expected to be recognized between 2027 and 2031.
The addition lifted its total backlog to €12.1 billion from €3.4 billion at the end of June. The €8.9 billion IRIS² component alone is more than seven times the €1.24 billion in revenue the company generated last year, underscoring the scale of the programme relative to its existing business.
A backlog provides visibility into future contracted revenue, but it is not equivalent to cash already received or profit guaranteed. Eutelsat will need to deliver the contracted work, manage project costs and meet the network’s development timetable before it can convert those commitments into financial returns.
The company also outlined its investment obligations. It expects to invest a combined €3.39 billion in shared and commercial infrastructure associated with IRIS² between 2027 and 2034. In return, it will gain access to more than twice OneWeb’s current bandwidth, potentially expanding the capacity available for commercial satellite services.
But that investment would create a substantial funding and execution challenge. Satellite networks require capital for spacecraft, launches, ground infrastructure and ongoing operations, often years before the full revenue potential becomes available. Delays or cost overruns could affect the timing and profitability of the programme, while the benefits will depend on demand for the additional capacity and Eutelsat’s ability to secure customers.
Nevertheless, the expansion could help the company reposition itself in a market where demand for connectivity extends beyond conventional broadcasting. Satellite internet can serve customers in remote areas and provide communications links where terrestrial networks are unavailable, unreliable or insufficient.
Eutelsat already operates more than 600 OneWeb satellites, with another 229 planned as part of a €1 billion expansion. The additional spacecraft and IRIS² infrastructure would increase its capacity to compete for government and commercial communications contracts.
IRIS² is also part of a broader European effort to strengthen technological autonomy. Starlink has established a significant position in satellite broadband, while European governments have become more attentive to the strategic implications of depending on infrastructure controlled by foreign companies.
Eutelsat’s ownership of OneWeb gives it an existing operational network from which to build, rather than requiring Europe to begin developing a competing LEO system entirely from scratch. Its role in IRIS² could also place the company at the center of a publicly supported effort to establish secure satellite connectivity across the bloc.
However, government backing and strategic importance do not eliminate commercial risks. Eutelsat must balance the development of IRIS² and OneWeb against the declining economics of its established broadcasting operations. The new network’s long timetable also means that the company must manage its finances during the years before the projected commercial services revenue begins to arrive.
Its latest trading update offered a reminder of those pressures. Revenue across Eutelsat’s four operating businesses fell 2.1% on a like-for-like basis to €278.3 million in the three months to the end of September. The figure missed the €291 million average forecast in a company-compiled poll of analysts.
The shortfall shows that the expansion in contracted future work has not yet translated into stronger near-term operating performance. Eutelsat confirmed its financial targets for the 2026-27 and 2028-29 financial years, but the immediate revenue decline leaves the company needing to demonstrate that its existing operations can remain sufficiently resilient while it funds the transition.
The distinction between contracted infrastructure revenue and commercial services revenue has attracted attention. The €8.9 billion backlog largely relates to designing and building IRIS², whereas the forecast of more than €10 billion covers commercial services revenue expected over the longer period from 2032 to 2040. The two figures represent different stages of the business opportunity and should not be treated as interchangeable measures of profitability.