As the world watches the paralysis in the failed Sri Lanka, check your personal economy. Ghana is now a big concern. Egypt is there. El Salvador is there. Nigeria is in a gestation period with huge implications ahead of 2023 elections. The hopeful effervescence of South Africa is challenged by youth unemployment and they are ramping up violence daily (19 died this weekend). From all indicators, I expect massive sovereign defaults and severe deterioration of many currencies.
The Ghanaian cedi has lost 30.56% against the US dollar in 6months. The drop in the Cedi comes despite Ghana’s central bank’s hawkish stance to stamp out inflation.
As the dollar index (DXY) maintains its bullish momentum, the Cedi seems to be heading in the opposite direction. At the time of writing this article, the USD/GHS up 30.56% (YTD) to trade a 7.89 Cedi.
At a time when Ghana is facing economic disruptions caused by the Russian-Ukraine war, a stronger US dollar supported by hikes in US interest rates would only accelerate the depreciation.
The biggest news now is that President Biden has to meet a man he initially ignored to speak with on phone. Yes, Saudi Crown Prince. Reading his piece in the Washington Post, you can see that even the United States feels the urgency to strike partnerships to avert a major economic upheaval.
The war in Ukraine has provided a validation that some statistics the world has relied on is faulty. No one would have believed that Russia and Ukraine have these impacts on global food security. But with both cut out due to sanctions and war, the world is now rattled with even the “major” suppliers of food confused.
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Nigeria has lost physical security. President Buhari needs to do all to ensure we do not lose Food Security. Where he fails to do that, via all means necessary, it would be devastating. This becomes necessary as our leaders continue to make statements which make no sense: “The Kuje custodial centre that was attacked by terrorists on Tuesday was Nigeria’s most fortified prison, interior minister Rauf Aregbesola has said. Mr Aregbesola said this in a statement on Friday after visiting the prison.
“Now my position is so clear, I have declared since April 2021 that all our facilities are red zones and that whoever attempts an attack may not live to tell the story. I still maintain this.
“Kuje is the most fortified in the country. It is medium by size but maximum by the security being put there. We have a platoon of security officers deployed here.”
The minister said that although the prison is officially a ‘medium’ security prison, it was the most fortified in the country.” Yes, it is the most fortified, but it was attacked for hours, and no help came even though it is within the nation’s capital! That denial is part of our problems just as we have been talking about crude oil theft with no action.
Mr. Kennedy [Managing Director of Chevron Nigeria/Mid Africa Business Unit, Richard Kennedy] emphasized the need not to confuse the agitations of host communities of oil-producing areas with the spate of crude oil theft being carried out in the area.
“From my experience, the issue with crude oil theft should not be confused with host community issues. It is much much much bigger than that. It is completely different from host community issues. Quite frankly it is organized crime.”
He also revealed that the level of theft is costing Nigeria millions of dollars daily in lost revenue which could have helped solve our fiscal challenges.
“The volume of crude that is being stolen is well beyond comprehension. You can see some of the figures in the press, maybe it’s about 100,000 barrels per day at $100 per barrel and that’s $10 million per day that is being stolen. And NNPC owns 60% while taxes of 85% are paid so it’s a huge loss for the country.”
Globally, provided the Western powers continue to focus only on Ukraine, we may see what happened in Sri Lanka take place in other places: ‘Thousands of protesters in the Sri Lankan capital Colombo have taken over the president’s residence, BBC reports. And the president is resigning: “Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has announced he will step down after protesters stormed his official residence and set the prime minister’s house on fire.”’ So, do not count on leaders to lead. You just have to have your plan.
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