A fresh controversy is escalating over the true volume of Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption, as Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, openly challenges the official data endorsed by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
While the NMDPRA pegs daily usage at around 50 million liters, Dangote insists the actual figure is significantly lower, closer to 33 million liters—a gap of 17 million liters that has been alleged to have been exploited for years to siphon public funds through the now-defunct fuel subsidy scheme.
Speaking during a visit by members of the Global CEO Africa group to the Dangote Refinery in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos, the billionaire industrialist revealed that, contrary to government figures, Nigeria’s actual petrol consumption does not exceed 33 million liters per day. He warned that the country had been misled for years with bloated estimates of 60 to 70 million liters per day, sometimes even as high as 100 million liters — figures that enabled a powerful cabal to siphon off vast sums under the guise of fuel subsidy payments.
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He had earlier stated that when he decided to embark on the project, people tried to dissuade him, saying it was impossible to survive in the industry without joining the cartel that controlled fuel importation, describing it as a “mafia business.”
His comments cast fresh light on the controversy surrounding Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, particularly the opacity of the country’s fuel consumption and subsidy regime.
Energy economist and policy analyst, Kelvin Emmanuel, corroborated Dangote’s claims by explaining the technical mechanics of the fraud. In a post on social media, Emmanuel accused regulators and oil marketers of engaging in a coordinated operation that manipulated documents to support inflated claims.
“All those times when the regulator told you Nigerians consume 70 million liters per day and they were paying for subsidy… what actually gets delivered is around 30 million liters,” Emmanuel wrote. “The remaining PMS in crude equivalent is diverted mid-ocean, and then customs documents are falsified to represent 70 million liters per day.”
According to him, the subsidy racket was a sophisticated scheme involving the lifting of crude oil equivalent to 70 million liters on Free on Board (FOB) terms, while only about 30 million liters of refined petrol would be delivered into Nigeria. The shortfall, he said, was monetized through illegal sales, with false documentation used to validate the full 70 million liter figure, creating a gaping hole in national finances.
“I can tell you that for the last few years, this scheme has been producing N471 billion monthly for a cabal that do not want it to end,” Emmanuel said.
The scale of the alleged fraud has added weight to growing calls for a forensic audit of the country’s fuel import and distribution records during the years the fuel subsidy was paid.
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), the agency responsible for collating and publishing daily petrol consumption figures, has consistently insisted that its data is accurate. Following the removal of the petrol subsidy in May 2023, the agency pegged Nigeria’s consumption at about 50 million liters per day, down from earlier estimates of over 60 million.
The PIA (Petroleum Industry Act) mandates the NMDPRA to ensure transparency in petroleum supply and enforce compliance among marketers. However, Dangote’s assertion has cast doubt on the integrity of this oversight, prompting fresh demands for institutional reforms and independent verification of data.
However, some industry stakeholders have questioned the accuracy of Dangote’s figures. Speaking to LEADERSHIP, lawyer and energy sector analyst Taiwo Ogunloye of the Institute of Energy and Extractive Industry Law said while Dangote’s position is important, it must be weighed against the agency’s statutory role.
“Dangote may have figures at his disposal, but those may be limited in scope. NMDPRA is the agency with the responsibility and capacity to provide accurate information,” Ogunloye said.
Still, he acknowledged that allegations of corruption were serious and said they deserved a thorough and independent investigation.
“However, Dangote is an operator and may have some figures in his disposal but that may be limited in scope because the NMDPRA has the duty and responsibility as well as capacity to provide accurate information on the actual marketer situation,” he said.
Since President Bola Tinubu announced the end of fuel subsidy in his May 29, 2023, inauguration speech, petrol prices have tripled, inflation has surged, and poverty levels have risen, leading to widespread public discontent. While the government argues that subsidy removal was necessary to curb unsustainable spending, the controversy over past abuses continues to dominate public discourse.
Critics say the failure to prosecute those responsible for subsidy fraud has further eroded trust in Nigeria’s energy governance.