Germany’s export sector showed signs of recovery in September 2025, with overall exports rising 1.4% month-on-month—surpassing economists’ expectations of a modest 0.5% gain. This uptick was largely driven by a sharp 11.9% increase in shipments to the United States, marking the first growth in US-bound exports in six months after five consecutive declines.
The rebound comes against the backdrop of escalating US tariffs imposed by the Trump administration since early 2025, which had previously hammered German trade. Year-over-year, exports to the US remain down 14%, reflecting the ongoing drag from a baseline 15% tariff on EU goods, plus additional levies on key items like steel and aluminum.
Exports to EU countries also climbed 2.5% in September, while shipments to non-EU nations held steady. Despite the monthly gains, Germany’s overall exports are still below pre-tariff levels from March 2025, when President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement triggered global market turmoil and retaliatory measures from trading partners.
For context, Germany’s trade surplus with the US hit a record €65 billion ($66.95 billion) in the first 11 months of 2024, underscoring the stakes for its export-dependent economy.
Register for Tekedia Mini-MBA edition 19 (Feb 9 – May 2, 2026): big discounts for early bird.
Tekedia AI in Business Masterclass opens registrations.
Join Tekedia Capital Syndicate and co-invest in great global startups.
Register for Tekedia AI Lab: From Technical Design to Deployment (next edition begins Jan 24 2026).
German Government Engages Pharma Sector on US Tariff Challenges
In response to the tariff environment, the German government is preparing to convene representatives from the pharmaceutical industry to strategize on mitigating impacts from US trade policies.
This follows earlier assumptions that a 15% tariff rate would apply to pharmaceuticals and heavy trucks, as stated by government spokespeople in September 2025. While pharma products have largely been exempt from steeper levies—such as the 39% tariffs hitting other Swiss imports—the sector remains vigilant amid ongoing US Section 232 investigations into national security implications for drug supplies.
The discussions align with broader EU efforts, including a July 2025 trade agreement capping tariffs at 15% for EU exports and exemptions for critical sectors like chemicals and pharma. European drugmakers, including German giants, have lobbied US officials to avoid tariffs that could raise costs and disrupt patient access, arguing they contradict Trump’s goals on drug pricing and life expectancy.
Recent deals, such as Pfizer’s October 2025 agreement for tariff relief in exchange for price cuts in Medicaid, highlight how firms are negotiating carve-outs. These moves come as tariffs threaten to stall Germany’s growth for a third year, with Economy Minister Robert Habeck warning of reduced competitiveness.
Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil has called for swift bilateral solutions, noting that high levies on EU imports like German pharma and machinery would also inflate US consumer prices. The pharma sector—Europe’s top export to the US—hopes investments and trade pacts will shield it from further escalation.
The 11.9% surge in German exports to the US in September 2025 signals a tentative stabilization in bilateral trade, potentially easing some immediate pressures on Germany’s export-driven economy after months of tariff-induced contraction.
This uptick contributed to overall exports rising 1.4% month-on-month—exceeding forecasts of 0.5%—and helped narrow the trade surplus to €15.3 billion, the lowest in 11 months, as imports jumped 3.1% due to restocking and a weaker euro.
Economists view this as evidence of a modest post-summer rebound, but the gains are fragile: US-bound shipments remain 7.4-14% below year-ago levels, and total exports are still under pre-tariff March 2025 figures.
Persistent US levies 15% baseline plus sector-specific hikes could delay a fuller recovery, with analysts warning of “rough headwinds” and no quick return to growth. For Germany’s GDP, where US exports account for about 2.5%, this implies a shallow uplift—perhaps adding 0.1-0.2% to Q4 2025 forecasts—but risks stalling if new tariffs materialize, exacerbating structural weaknesses like high energy costs and competition from China.