Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts for late 2026, warning that disruptions to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could last longer than previously expected as the conflict involving Iran continues to unsettle global energy markets.
In a research note released on Thursday, the investment bank lifted its fourth-quarter 2026 forecast for Brent crude to $71 per barrel, up from an earlier estimate of $66. Its outlook for West Texas Intermediate was also raised to $67 per barrel, compared with a previous projection of $62.
The revision comes amid expectations that disruptions to oil flows through the strategically vital shipping corridor could persist longer than initially anticipated.
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Global crude prices have surged since fighting involving Iran escalated on February 28. Brent crude has climbed more than 36%, while U.S. benchmark WTI has risen roughly 39% over the same period. Both benchmarks briefly spiked above $119 per barrel on Monday, their highest levels since mid-2022, as fears mounted over a potential supply crisis.
The conflict has effectively paralyzed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving oil tankers stranded for more than a week. Producers in the Gulf region have also begun suspending output as onshore storage facilities approach capacity.
The waterway is one of the most important chokepoints in the global energy system. Roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne crude oil normally passes through the narrow passage linking the Persian Gulf to international markets.
Any prolonged disruption there can have immediate repercussions for oil supply and prices.
Longer Disruption Expected
Goldman analysts said they now assume 21 days of sharply reduced oil flows, with volumes falling to just 10% of normal levels, followed by a 30-day gradual recovery. That marks a significant revision from the bank’s earlier scenario, which assumed only 10 days of disruption.
Under that scenario, the bank warned that daily oil prices could surpass the record highs reached in 2008 if flows through the strait remain severely constrained through March.
Governments and energy agencies are already preparing emergency measures to prevent a deeper supply crunch.
Goldman said it has incorporated into its models a large coordinated policy response involving the release of 254 million barrels from global strategic petroleum reserves, along with 31 million barrels from Russian crude stockpiles.
These emergency releases, the bank estimates, could reduce the impact on global commercial oil inventories by nearly 50%. The move follows a decision by the International Energy Agency to release 400 million barrels of crude from strategic reserves — the largest coordinated drawdown in its history.
The United States is expected to supply the bulk of the emergency oil.
Limits to emergency supply
Despite the unprecedented scale of the release, Goldman cautioned that logistical constraints will limit how quickly the oil can reach markets. The bank estimates that withdrawals from strategic reserves across the Organization for Economic Co?operation and Development will be capped at roughly 3 million barrels per day.
In addition, the drawdown is expected to be gradually phased out over roughly four weeks, extending into early June.
Under Goldman’s base case scenario, flows through the Strait of Hormuz begin recovering from March 21 onward. In that case, the bank expects not all of the 400 million barrels announced by the IEA to be released.
Prices Expected To Ease Later
If shipping routes stabilize and reserve releases help offset supply losses, Goldman expects oil prices to gradually cool in the coming months. Under its base scenario, WTI prices could retreat to the low $70s by early summer as emergency supply reaches markets and tanker traffic slowly resumes.
Even so, analysts warn that energy markets are likely to remain volatile as long as geopolitical tensions continue to threaten one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes.
For governments and central banks already grappling with inflation concerns, the conflict’s impact on energy prices could complicate economic planning and monetary policy decisions in the near term.