Hodling Bitcoin Now is Poor Strategy [podcast]

This vdeo podcast by Ndubuisi Ekekwe presents a strong argument against the long-term “hodling” of Bitcoin, particularly for investors seeking substantial future gains. The speaker, a self-proclaimed “mathematics guy,” bases the analysis on Bitcoin’s current market capitalization of approximately $2.4 trillion, arguing that most of its significant value appreciation has already occurred. By comparing Bitcoin to other trillion-dollar assets like gold, Microsoft, and “Nvidia,” they project that even in highly optimistic scenarios (e.g., $100 trillion market cap), the maximum return for new investors would be around 40x, with more realistic scenarios yielding much less (20x or 10x). This is contrasted with the massive returns enjoyed by early adopters who bought Bitcoin at significantly lower prices.

The speaker introduces the concept of “injection settlement,” suggesting that current purchases primarily serve to allow early investors to exit. They predict that once Bitcoin reaches an “inflection point” of around $250,000 per Bitcoin, its asset growth will largely halt, transforming it more into a transactional currency rather than a high-growth investment.

As an alternative, the speaker strongly advocates for investing in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency infrastructure companies. They believe these foundational infraco businesses have significant growth potential ahead, enabling the broader digital finance and digital economy. They claim that such infrastructure investments can yield returns of “50x faster” than direct Bitcoin investments, offering “better value” and easier 25x gains for those willing to take on risk. 

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