Israeli authorities have arrested multiple individuals and indicted two in connection with using classified military information to place bets on Polymarket, a prediction market platform, regarding Israeli military operations.
A joint investigation by the Shin Bet (domestic security agency), Israel Police, and the Defense Ministry’s security unit led to the arrests of several suspects, including military reservists. Two individuals—a military reservist and a civilian—were indicted in Tel Aviv on charges including serious security offenses, bribery, and obstruction of justice.
The suspects allegedly used non-public classified information to which reservists had access through their military roles to wager on outcomes related to military operations, such as strikes or events tied to the June 2025 12-day war with Iran.
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Authorities described this as a “real security risk” to the military and state, marking what appears to be the first publicly known case of arrests linked to insider betting on a prediction market like Polymarket.
No details were released on the identities, exact ranks, or specific bets due to gag orders, but the case followed earlier media reports about suspicions of leaks used for accurate, profitable wagers on Israel-Iran military events.
This incident highlights emerging risks at the intersection of classified intelligence, blockchain-based prediction markets, and insider trading-like activity. Polymarket itself was not implicated in wrongdoing; the focus is on the alleged misuse of secret information by the bettors.
Discussions on X have linked this to a specific Polymarket user profile to “Rundeep” or “ricosuave666” that reportedly profited ~$150,000–$154,000 from a string of perfect predictions on related markets before going inactive, though official statements do not name individuals or confirm exact wallet ties.
The arrests of Israeli military reservists and a civilian for allegedly using classified information to place bets on Polymarket regarding military operations notably tied to the June 2025 Israel-Iran 12-day war carry significant implications across multiple dimensions.
National Security Risks for Israel
Israeli authorities, including the Shin Bet, IDF, and Defense Ministry, described these actions as a “real security risk” to operations and the state. Even without direct operational harm in this case, leaking or misusing classified details for personal gain could incentivize broader espionage or compromise sensitive intelligence.
The IDF labeled it a “grave ethical failure” and a “clear crossing of a red line,” signaling heightened internal scrutiny of personnel with access to secrets. This could lead to stricter protocols for reservists, enhanced monitoring of communications, or broader vetting to prevent future leaks.
This appears to be the first publicly documented instance worldwide where individuals faced criminal charges specifically for using non-public especially classified and government information to bet on a prediction platform like Polymarket. Previous suspicious cases raised eyebrows but didn’t result in arrests tied to state secrets.
Experts, including former regulators, noted this should alarm militaries globally about personnel monetizing secrets via decentralized or crypto-based markets. Prediction markets thrive on aggregating information for accurate probabilities, but insider advantages undermine trust and liquidity.
Allowing or failing to curb such activity could: Erode user confidence, as people avoid markets perceived as “rigged” by insiders.
Invite regulatory crackdowns, especially as platforms grow in political/geopolitical betting.
Platforms like Polymarket lack traditional KYC/surveillance tools that regulated ones use to detect patterns, freeze accounts, or refer cases to authorities.
Related scandals already prompted platforms to bolster integrity measures, but this case escalates concerns to national security levels. The charges (serious security offenses, bribery, obstruction of justice) treat this as akin to unauthorized disclosure of classified info for profit, not mere gambling.
It sets a precedent that profiting from state secrets via prediction markets can trigger severe prosecution, potentially deterring similar behavior elsewhere. In Israel, it reinforces that personal gain doesn’t excuse breaches of duty, even absent intent to harm security (a charge reportedly dropped in at least one case).
No direct wrongdoing by the platform; focus remains on users, but publicity could spur more scrutiny of on-chain wallets tied to accurate geopolitical bets. Could accelerate calls for better surveillance, or push regulators to classify certain markets as gambling and securities with insider-trading bans.
Public discourse on X highlights speculation linking the arrests to specific high-win accounts, amplifying debates on whether blockchain transparency helps catch insiders or exposes vulnerabilities.
While the incident involved relatively small sums ~$150k+, it exposes a dark intersection of classified intel, decentralized betting, and personal greed—potentially catalyzing tighter controls in both military and prediction-market worlds.