I expect the economy to have a great acceleration in Q1 and Q2 2025 anchored on Trump’s optimism and MAGA swagger. But I am also positing that by Q4 2027, there will be a calibration because the goodies in the capital market have gone for a really long time. Yes, this party cannot just continue forever!
The S&P 500 advanced on Wednesday, while the Nasdaq also gained ground, driven by a rally in Big Tech stocks following the announcement of a $500 billion artificial intelligence infrastructure venture. However, market strategists raised concerns about the narrow scope of the rally, as most companies in the S&P 500 saw declines, according to Bloomberg. Additionally, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that “asset prices are kind of inflated, by any measure.” The numbers: Dow Jones: +0.3%; S&P 500: +0.6%; Nasdaq: +1.3%.
Besides those economic readjustments, there is also the element of AI where in 2025, we expect the firing department to focus on the middle technical level as 2024 was a year for entry level workers getting pink slips. Stripe has opened the season with 300 workers going: “Stripe has announced plans to lay off 300 employees, representing approximately 3.5% of its global workforce.”
There is always a cycle which we see in Nigeria and broad Africa, and that is that after a recession in the US and Western Europe, there is always a massive acceleration in technology evolution in the continent. The recession in early 2000s brought many African diasporas to remember home at scale, and many started foundational web design and networking companies in the continent. Then when the great recession struck in 2008, many returned and were pioneering in the age of SMAC (social media, analytics and cloud).
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The world through massive financial engineering has avoided recession at scale since 2008, but it is expected that one will hit before the end of 2028. When that happens, the African diasporas will do what they have done, linking with those in the homelands to bring AI to scale.
The challenge is that post-recession will bring new species of AI companies, and most will alter the structures of many current industries which will be recovering from a recession, just as companies like Airbnb and Uber at different times emerged to deal with the challenges of downtime or recession.
The implication is that most industries will fade and new ones will evolve, affecting jobs in many ways. For everyone, the next five years will be intriguing, career-wise, because surviving on a job will become a career itself. Yes, it is possible we will have a sole staff billion dollar company working with AI agents.
Not to scare since we have an antidote which remains updating and upgrading one’s skills. Have a plan.
The banking industry could cut as many as 200,000 jobs worldwide in the next three to five years due to the rise of artificial intelligence, Bloomberg Intelligence suggests. That’s based on a survey of 93 CIOs and CTOs at major banks, including Citigroup and Goldman Sachs. “Back office, middle office and operations” roles will likely be the most vulnerable. AI could also boost bank profits by as much as 17% by 2027.
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We are running very fast to return to the past, by then we have learned what really worked. There’s no infinite growth, and global population is not slowing down for at least a century. No accurate response or answer to how things would turn out, but if you survive it, then you have won.