It began on their website as:
- Works like real stock market.
- Predictions are traded as shares. Max price is Ksh 100.00
- Correct predictions are redeemed at 100/= per share
- Alternatively you can sell your shares and profit instantly
It is called Kesho Exchange Prediction Market. And it was developed by a Kenyan. So, what is it?
Kesho exchange is Kenya’s 1st prediction stock market. It allows people to profit from there predictions by buying into outcomes they think are likely to occur. Outcomes are presented as shares and can be bought and sold for a profit. It works just like a real stock market except predictions are traded instead of stock.
A Prediction market works like a stock market except predictions are traded instead of company stock. These Predictions are presented as shares and can be sold and bought by the public. The value of any share is fixed between ksh. 0 and Ksh. 100. Thus the value of a share at any one time can be seen as a percentage represention of the likelyhood of the prediction.
They even aggregate news on sports, economy, politics, etc just to give you a balance. And you can trade right now, here.
All Predictions are made in the context of a Market Event. An event maybe a soccer match, an election or even the likelyhood of a natural disaster. These events usually have several possible outcomes. It is these different outcomes which are converted to shares which are traded.
Example : Kenya vs Uganda soccer match
An example of a Market event would be a soccer match between Kenya and Uganda. In this case there are 3 possible outcomes in these event i.e
- Kenya wins
- Uganda Wins
- They Draw
These 3 outcomes are then converted to shares and given trading symbols i.e:
- Kenya wins – KENWIN
- Uganda wins – UGWIN
- Draw – KEN=UG
Now you the trader can make a prediction by either buying or selling the presented shares