APC should not be pressured to zone its presidential ticket to the South since Southwest and Southsouth are unable to subzone it to Southeast. Indeed, no politician from Southsouth and Southwest must hide on equity and fairness while arguing for zoning APC ticket to South when the same people cannot subzone to Southeast.
It is the same call for PDP: when it refused to zone it to the Southeast, there was no need wasting time zoning it to the South. Atiku has the ticket now.
I expect APC to keep this in the North because Southsouth and Southwest provided strong reasons that Nigeria has “matured” and “outgrown” zoning and quota system. This is a major precedent. At the end of everything, I want to see this applied in all domains of Nigerian existence including admission, business permits, etc where quota, natural and artificial advantages, comparative disadvantages, etc would be muted and discarded for the “best” to emerge.
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I am beginning to feel like the 2023 election may begin the turning point in Nigeria. Kill zoning for politics. Kill quota in everything. Let competitive spirit return in the land.
Comment 1: Prof don’t you think you’re being unfair to the other south zones?They can’t be held responsible for the failures of that zone to get their act together.When Buhari contested,there was nothing like this zone in the North must get the ticket.Let the SE fight for it.
My Response: You are rewriting history. The SE politicians are just like SW and northern politicians. SW did not support OBJ, that did not stop him from winning. Northern delegates voted for GEJ in 2011 even when they had many from the North; they voted for GEJ.. Everything you wrote against SE is disinformation. It would be bad if all the SE politicians are aligned 100% – I am happy some are in APC, PDP, etc.
Buhari did not win because of North; he won because of SW. Never think it is about any region getting “act together”. If North decides it is SE, it will happen irrespective of SW. SW decided it was North in 2015 and it happened. That is how it works.
… He is making it look like Kwakwanso was not running when Northern delegates voted for Jonathan. He was making it look like Buhari would have won without SW or there was a magical strategy on unification why Buhari won. That SE delegates voted for other regions is typical: Northern delegates voted for GEJ and Nigeria voted for OBJ even when SW did not accept him.
Comment 2: Ndubuisi Ekekwe , what do you think of this statement credited to former minister of Aviation – Osita Chidoka?… “No other group did more damage to the idea of zoning than the 80 out of 95 Igbo delegates to the last Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) convention who cast their votes against Igbo aspirants. The 80 delegates and their sponsors, in a tragic display of lack of group consciousness and primacy of personal interest, sent the country a clear and loud message: zoning is not an issue dear to Ndigbo. Igbo PDP delegates told Nigerians that a President from the Southeast is not a priority and not an issue of justice and fairness. The country heard them”.
My Response: Chidoka is wrong and I think his political sagacity is limited. I would be more worried if Igbo delegates just vote for SE. The Northern delegates in 2011 voted for GEJ against their own. Nigeria voted for OBJ in 1999 even when SW rejected him. Chidoka should see the big picture. We cannot win by being local. We win by arguing at the big picture. That picture is that Nigeria must consider since we cannot win via “numbers” because they are not there. We need our own quota. Period.
My Response: “So the south east was a major beneficiary of GEJ regime ,so they should have combined to give the south south ,” – incorrect. You would have said that SE was the political beneficiary of GEJ govt but went ahead to build other regions, driving on the Igbo spirit of not to be seen as favouring itself. Okonji Iweala, Pius Anyim, etc who held all those big positions for 5 years built zero road, rail tracks, airport, anything in SE but of course developed other areas. That is the Igbo spirit so that we do not take advantage to corner opportunities. In Igbo tradition, the elders serve drinks to Nwa-ada before the sons of the soil.
On SE delegates, that is not a problem. The Northern delegates voted for GEJ in 2011 even though they had politicians from the North. This is typical in politics. SW rejected OBJ but Nigeria elected him. Can APC pick Onu, Umahi and do what PDP did in SW for Obj? That is the issue.
Comment 4: Prof. the two references both in 1999 & 2011 are won through the ballot even though we all knew it wasn’t free and fair due to the massive electoral malpractice but all the candidates campaigned/lobbied in almost all the 36 states of the federation. The only time we can say the Nigerian presidency was negotiated was when IBB handed over to Shonekan.
One particular region in the south has created hatred even among the Southerners claiming marginalization.
We all know the election process everywhere in the world is about lobby and campaigning.
My Response: Elections in Nigeria are mostly won at the primaries, out of the powers of the citizens! Hope you know that. Delegates determine more than 90% of everything. (In America, citizens determine 100% because it is OPEN primary.). 1999 was negotiated as Nigeria decided in all major parties to nominate SW flagbearers due to Abiola case.
In 2011, GEJ was anointed and all delegates, north and south voted for him. SS governors were not even happy. But Nigeria overruled them.
Without Tinubu who brought SW, Buhari would not have won in 2015. The delegate system reduces the choices and 2 parties use that to shape the options. If APC nominates Ndubuisi Ekekwe tomorrow, magically that is the option even though you have your preference. That is the power of delegates. You general ballot has limited impact as it is a secondary phase reaction.
Nigeria 2023: PDP Throws Presidential Ticket Open, No Zoning
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When I saw @PeterObi at 10 Downing Street, I knew the decision has been made. The following corrections are in place:
1. Igbo presidency to stop the secession agitations
2. Southern Presidency to Stabilize Nigeria oil outlook: You don’t want any interruption to oil supply now that Europe is being pounded left and right by Russia with every leverage Russia has through oil. Nigeria is part of the plan to assure Europe’s independence from Russia oil
3. Business man leader because, come to think of it “…it is the economy, Stupid!”
Naming a consensus candidate for APC today to be from the North means the Northern vote is divided between Kwankwanso, Atiku and Lawan. This automatically clears the way for @MrPeterObi.
Very brilliant analysis of Isidore on potential votes sharing in the North. APC should go north I pray
Every argument seems valid in politics, depending what you think that could favour you. If you believe that zoning will offer you an advantage, you frame it as ‘our turn’ line, then garnish it with ‘equity’ and ‘fairness’. And in the event you find the zoning argument unfavorable, you can switch to what is politically expedient, in that case you flip it to a candidate that can help us win the general election. The interesting thing is that either way, you will still find enough people supporting your argument, because everything makes sense in politics.
This is a land where the meaning of competence keeps shifting, same goes for integrity, same goes for loyalty. Those who tell you to put aside sentiments are themselves swimming in sentiments, and those who accuse you of sabotage are one step ahead sabotaging themselves and you; but the blame is always be about the other person or people, never about you.
I don’t have any advice for the APC, only waiting for them to make their own wrong move, and then we can put the options before us in proper perspective.
Don’t worry about the politicians, but be more careful with the very people who share space with you here and other places, telling you how they want the best for Nigeria…
They do support indeed. South South surprised me after All SE did for Gej