Nigeria’s trade relations within Africa underwent a major shake-up in the second quarter of 2025, with Togo eclipsing South Africa to become the country’s top African trading partner, according to the latest Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The development highlights Togo’s growing importance as a regional re-export hub and raises questions about how Nigeria’s trade patterns may evolve in the coming quarters.
In Q1 2025, Togo ranked fourth among Nigeria’s African export destinations with N134.8 billion in trade, all of it non-crude oil goods.
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By Q2, the story changed dramatically. Exports to Togo surged to N811.97 billion, representing 27.4% of Nigeria’s total exports to Africa. Of this, N113.3 billion came from crude oil, while N698.7 billion was from non-crude oil products.
The six-fold jump illustrates Nigeria’s growing reliance on Togo’s logistics capacity. With Lomé’s port serving as one of West Africa’s busiest transshipment hubs, analysts believe a significant share of Nigerian exports to Togo may be destined for redistribution across francophone West Africa.
On imports, Togo also dominated in Q2, supplying Nigeria with goods worth N211.99 billion, or 25.8% of total imports from Africa. That performance cemented Togo’s position as Nigeria’s largest African trade partner overall — not only on the export front but also as the top import origin.
South Africa’s Decline
South Africa, which led the list in Q1 with N708.7 billion worth of imports from Nigeria, fell to second place in Q2. Exports from Nigeria to South Africa shrank to N473.65 billion, a sharp drop of 33% compared with the previous quarter.
Crude oil remained the bulk of trade at N430.8 billion in Q2, but down significantly from N704.7 billion in Q1. Imports from South Africa into Nigeria also dipped, falling to N115.15 billion in Q2 from N125.38 billion in Q1. While it retained its second-place ranking as a supplier, the contraction underscores Nigeria’s shifting trade flows toward West Africa.
Other Movers in the Rankings
Ivory Coast maintained its third-place position in both quarters, though volumes fell slightly from N428.56 billion in Q1 to N408.97 billion in Q2, mostly crude oil at N354.1 billion.
Ghana climbed from fifth to fourth in Q2 with N307.47 billion in Nigerian exports, up from N122.07 billion in Q1. Its imports were nearly balanced between crude oil (N154.9 billion) and non-crude goods (N152.6 billion), highlighting a more diversified trade relationship than South Africa’s oil-heavy imports.
Mauritius entered the top five in Q2, recording N264.98 billion in Nigerian exports, entirely non-crude oil products — a sign of expanding trade with island economies.
Senegal, third in Q1 with N346.26 billion, slipped to sixth in Q2 with N222.31 billion. Cameroon rose to seventh at N106.18 billion, while Equatorial Guinea climbed to eighth at N96.93 billion, both absent from Q1’s top 10. Benin Republic (N37.58 billion) and Niger Republic (N26.19 billion) rounded out the list. Burkina Faso and Swaziland, present in Q1, dropped out entirely.
On the import side, Togo’s rise displaced Angola, which had been Nigeria’s largest African import source in Q1 with N224.39 billion, but disappeared from the top 10 in Q2. Equatorial Guinea emerged as a new entrant in fourth place, supplying N97.93 billion. Ghana also entered as a new source with N24.66 billion, or 3% of Nigeria’s imports from Africa. Egypt, Morocco, and Tanzania remained in the rankings but shifted down.
Nigeria’s Trade Surplus Widens
Overall, Nigeria’s trade position strengthened. The surplus widened by 44.3% to N7.46 trillion in Q2, up from N5.17 trillion in Q1.
Exports rose to N22.75 trillion — a 10.5% quarter-on-quarter increase and 28.4% higher than the same period in 2024. Imports, by contrast, slipped marginally by 0.9% to N15.29 trillion.
This dynamic created a stronger external account, with Togo’s rise central to that outcome.
Forward-Looking Perspectives
Economists believe Nigeria’s deepening ties with Togo could accelerate under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), embedding Lagos more firmly into West Africa’s re-export and logistics network. If Nigeria leverages Togo’s port infrastructure, exporters of both crude and non-crude goods could find new gateways into francophone markets, making trade more resilient to disruptions elsewhere. Diversification toward partners like Ghana and Mauritius suggests that non-oil exports may gain more prominence, reducing the country’s reliance on volatile crude flows.
However, some analysts warn that Nigeria’s growing dependence on Togo as a middleman raises concerns about overexposure. If Lomé’s re-export model faces policy shifts, capacity bottlenecks, or diplomatic strains, Nigeria’s trade volumes could suffer. Meanwhile, South Africa’s declining role points to weakening links with Africa’s most industrialized economy — a trend that could leave Nigeria less connected to southern Africa’s consumer and investment markets. The collapse of Angola from the top 10 import list in Q2 illustrates how quickly such ties can unravel.
For policymakers, the challenge is said to be tied to balancing Nigeria’s gains from regional re-export hubs with the need to maintain strong direct ties with large economies like South Africa, Ivory Coast, and Angola. The next few quarters are expected to determine whether Togo’s rise marks a structural realignment of Nigeria’s trade or a temporary shift driven by oil and logistics dynamics.