After suffering one of its sharpest corrections in years, gold could be poised for a powerful rebound, according to UBS, which believes the precious metal could climb about 28% over the next 12 months as expectations for U.S. monetary policy shift, the dollar weakens, and central banks continue accumulating bullion.

The bullish outlook contrasts with the growing caution among several major investment banks, many of which have recently cut their gold price forecasts after the metal tumbled from record highs amid a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates elevated for longer.

Spot gold is currently trading around $4,040 an ounce, down roughly 23% from its record highs reached in January, ending a remarkable rally that saw prices surge approximately 150% from around $2,000 an ounce in early 2024 to nearly $5,600 an ounce at their intraday peak in early 2026.

The correction has been driven largely by higher U.S. Treasury yields, renewed dollar strength and fading expectations for imminent Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, all of which have reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

However, UBS believes investors have become overly pessimistic.

UBS Targets $5,200 Gold

In a research note published on June 25, UBS projected that gold could recover to approximately $5,200 per ounce over the coming year, driven by three major catalysts that it believes markets are currently underestimating.

The first is monetary policy.

According to the Swiss bank, investors have become excessively hawkish following Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Reserve policy meeting as chairman, pricing in a higher probability that interest rates will remain elevated or even rise further.

UBS disagrees with that assessment.

Instead, the bank believes the next meaningful move by the Federal Reserve is more likely to be an interest-rate cut as economic growth slows over the coming year.

Lower interest rates generally benefit gold because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding an asset that generates no income while simultaneously increasing demand for traditional safe-haven investments. UBS expects slowing economic activity to eventually force policymakers to adopt a more accommodative stance, creating favorable conditions for bullion prices.

Weaker Dollar Could Provide Major Tailwind

The second pillar supporting UBS’s bullish outlook is the U.S. dollar. The bank argues that investor positioning in the dollar has become increasingly crowded, while America’s expanding fiscal deficits could gradually undermine the currency.

Historically, gold has exhibited a strong inverse relationship with the dollar because a weaker greenback makes dollar-denominated bullion less expensive for international buyers, supporting global demand.

UBS Global Head of Equities Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi said: “A weaker dollar has historically been a powerful tailwind for gold.”

Should the dollar retreat as investors unwind long positions, gold would likely receive additional support.

UBS also believes official-sector demand will remain one of gold’s strongest long-term supports. Central banks have been among the largest net buyers of gold over the past several years as many countries diversify foreign exchange reserves away from the U.S. dollar amid rising geopolitical tensions and increasing fragmentation of the global financial system.

The bank pointed to continued purchases during May, when Poland bought 18 metric tons of gold, while China added another 10 metric tons to its reserves. According to UBS, sustained annual central-bank purchases should continue providing a structural floor beneath gold prices even if investment demand remains volatile.

Beyond its price outlook, UBS continues to recommend maintaining strategic exposure to gold within diversified investment portfolios. Hoffmann-Burchardi suggested that investors consider allocating a mid-single-digit percentage of their portfolios to bullion.

She said gold continues to offer diversification benefits because of its relatively low correlation with traditional financial assets.

“Its relatively low historical correlation with traditional asset classes means that it should add to overall portfolio resilience over time,” she said.

That defensive characteristic has become increasingly valuable as investors confront persistent geopolitical uncertainty, elevated government debt levels and shifting monetary policy expectations.

Contrasting Outlook With Rival Banks

UBS’s optimism stands in contrast to several major investment banks that have recently lowered their gold forecasts following the recent price correction.

Goldman Sachs last week reduced its year-end target to $4,900 per ounce, down from its previous forecast of $5,400, after abandoning expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. ING has also revised its outlook lower, forecasting gold will average about $4,600 per ounce by year-end instead of the $5,000 it had previously expected.

Earlier, Deutsche Bank likewise trimmed its forecasts, citing softer exchange-traded fund inflows, weaker physical demand from China and India, higher bond yields and a stronger dollar.

Those revisions illustrate how rapidly market sentiment has shifted after gold’s historic rally. Only months ago, some analysts were debating whether bullion could reach $6,000 per ounce, supported by central-bank buying and anticipated monetary easing. Instead, expectations have become more restrained as investors reassess the interest-rate outlook and global economic conditions.

UBS, however, believes the recent sell-off represents a temporary correction rather than the end of gold’s longer-term bull market, arguing that slowing global growth, eventual monetary easing, persistent central-bank demand and a softer U.S. dollar should combine to restore momentum over the coming year.

WhatsApp on Thursday introduced usernames, a feature users have been anticipating for years, allowing people to share their profiles and connect without revealing their phone numbers — though the Meta-owned messaging app will still require a phone number for account creation.

The rollout marks a significant evolution for the world’s most popular messaging platform, which has more than 3 billion users. Starting today, users can reserve their usernames, with the feature set to fully launch later this year. Individuals can choose any username between 3 and 35 characters, subject to WhatsApp’s policies.

The company is reserving certain usernames for top celebrities, VIPs, and organizations to prevent impersonation. Businesses and creators can also claim their existing Facebook or Instagram usernames for consistency across Meta’s ecosystem.

Users will receive a notification when the reservation option becomes available in their country. Once active, they can navigate to Settings > Account > Username to select their handle. WhatsApp is also introducing a username key that others will need to know in order to message them.

The company emphasized that usernames will not be searchable within the app. Only those who know the exact username can initiate contact. Users can turn off the feature or change their username at any time.

“When you meet someone new, whether it’s a classmate, a neighbor, or someone you met at an event, sharing your phone number can feel like a big step. Your phone number is personal, and it’s tied to so many other parts of your life,” Alice Newton-Rex, Vice President and Head of Product at WhatsApp, said in a briefing. “So usernames are designed to give you control of who gets to see your phone number in the first place.”

At present, users will need to share their username verbally or via text, as there is no QR code scanning option for contact without knowing a phone number.

Meta noted that the reservation process is necessary to avoid duplication across its massive user base. The feature gives WhatsApp parity with rivals like Telegram, Signal, and Wire, which have offered usernames for years, allowing users to keep their phone numbers private.

The introduction of usernames represents WhatsApp’s latest attempt to address growing privacy concerns while preserving the phone-number-based verification system that has been central to its security model and massive scale. By decoupling profile sharing from phone numbers, the company aims to make the app more appealing for users wary of exposing personal contact details, particularly in professional, social, or public contexts.

This change comes shortly after WhatsApp underwent a leadership transition, suggesting a renewed focus on user experience enhancements. The timing also aligns with broader industry trends, as messaging platforms face increasing pressure to offer more flexible and privacy-centric features amid heightened awareness of data security.

Analysts see the ability to link usernames across Meta’s platforms as an opportunity for businesses and creators to streamline communication and branding efforts. A uniform handle across WhatsApp, Instagram, and Facebook simplifies customer outreach and content distribution, potentially strengthening Meta’s ecosystem lock-in.

However, the feature has limitations. Without searchability or easy QR code sharing, usernames may not immediately transform how people connect on the app. Users will still need to exchange handles manually, which many believe could slow adoption in some scenarios. Additionally, the continued requirement for a phone number to create an account maintains WhatsApp’s core identity verification method, which the company argues enhances security against spam and fraudulent accounts.

Balancing Privacy, Security, and Scale

WhatsApp’s approach underpins a careful balancing act. While usernames enhance privacy for everyday interactions, the platform’s scale and reliance on phone numbers have long been credited with helping curb abuse. The company’s decision to reserve premium usernames for notable figures, which also aimed to prevent impersonation and maintain trust, has been lauded.

The move, however, is expected to have meaningful implications for user behavior. In regions where sharing phone numbers carries social or safety risks, usernames may encourage greater engagement. For global users, it offers a more modern, flexible way to connect without compromising the app’s fundamental security architecture.

As competitors like Telegram have demonstrated, username systems can coexist with phone-based verification, providing users with choice and control. WhatsApp’s implementation, while delayed compared to some rivals, benefits from the company’s vast user base and integration within Meta’s broader social ecosystem.