The Bank of Ghana has lowered its benchmark rate by 350 basis points to 18 percent, the third successive cut, as inflation tumbles and economic conditions ease.

Governor Johnson Asiama, speaking in Accra, said the decision reflected improved real interest rate conditions and a sustained outlook for stable inflation through mid-2026. The governor explained that elevated real rates created enough room to ease monetary policy in order to support growth recovery. The central bank projects inflation to remain near its target band well into the first half of 2026.

Ghana’s recent inflation trajectory has been dramatic. After peaking at over 54 percent in December 2022 — the highest in two decades — consumer price inflation fell sharply, returning to the BoG’s 6–10 percent target range by September this year. By October, inflation had dropped to 8 percent, the lowest in more than four years.

Key factors behind the decline include improved fiscal discipline and a rally in global gold prices. As the continent’s largest gold producer, Ghana benefited from surging commodity prices; the resulting strengthening of the cedi — up roughly 30 percent against the U.S. dollar this year — helped lower import costs and ease inflationary pressures.

Ghana’s government, through Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson, has pledged continued fiscal consolidation as the country prepares to exit its programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The budget projection targets a primary surplus of 1.5 percent of GDP by 2026, with the overall fiscal deficit expected to narrow from a projected 2.8 percent in 2025 to 2.2 percent in 2026.

Forson also forecasts economic growth of at least 4.8 percent in 2026, up from an estimated 4 percent for the current year. Data from national sources show food inflation dropped sharply to 9.5 percent in October from 11.8 percent in September, supported by harvest season supply and favorable base effects.

In contrast to Ghana’s aggressive easing, Nigeria’s central bank opted to hold its benchmark rate steady at 27 percent even as inflation has come down markedly. As of October 2025, headline inflation in Nigeria stood at 16.05 percent, nearly a full percentage point lower than the previous reading. The decision to maintain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) was announced by CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso following the bank’s latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

While many had expected at least a modest cut, given inflation’s steady decline, the CBN resisted. Officials argued that despite the recent disinflation, double-digit inflation remains too high to warrant a rate cut. Instead, the central bank adjusted the interest-rate corridor around the MPR, narrowing it to plus 50 / minus 450 basis points, and kept other tools such as the Cash Reserve Ratio and liquidity ratio unchanged. The adjustment is widely interpreted as an effort to encourage banks to lend rather than hoard deposits, hinting at cautious optimism about liquidity conditions and future stability.

Nigeria’s measured approach reflects concern that inflation remains elevated and underlying price pressures persist. While lower inflation is recognized, policymakers appear to prefer waiting for a sustained trend, especially in food and core inflation, before loosening monetary policy further.

The diverging strategies between Ghana and Nigeria highlight contrasting assessments. For instance, Ghana, benefiting from strong external tailwinds, improved currency strength, and a steep inflation reversal, feels confident enough to ease rates aggressively. Nigeria, on the other hand, appears more cautious despite disinflation to 16 percent. The central bank appears unwilling to loosen against a backdrop of still-high inflation and structural uncertainties.

The apex bank seems committed to ensuring that the disinflation path is durable before reducing borrowing costs, even if that means foregoing some short-term economic boost.

However, analysts have noted that if Nigeria’s inflation fails to moderate significantly, the decision to hold could preserve macro stability — but also risk keeping borrowing costs high just as economy-wide costs remain steep.

Apple is on track to ship more smartphones than Samsung in 2025, marking the first time in 14 years the iPhone maker will displace its long-time rival at the top of the global market, according to new data from Counterpoint Research.

The research firm told CNBC that Apple is projected to ship around 243 million iPhones this year, compared with Samsung’s expected 235 million shipments. That places Apple at an estimated 19.4% share of the global smartphone market, ahead of Samsung’s 18.7%.

While shipments don’t directly equate to sales, they remain a core indicator of how smartphone vendors measure demand and gauge expected retail performance across regions.

The shift is being driven by the momentum behind Apple’s latest flagship lineup. Counterpoint said the iPhone 17 series — launched in September — delivered a “bumper” holiday season, outpacing expectations and helping lift Apple’s shipment outlook for the year.

In the United States, sales of the iPhone 17 series, including the iPhone Air, were 12% higher during the first four weeks after launch when compared with the iPhone 16 series, excluding the iPhone 16e. In China, which remains one of Apple’s most strategically important markets, sales of the iPhone 17 lineup were 18% higher than its predecessor during the same four-week window.

Counterpoint Research Senior Analyst Yang Wang said the strong reception for the iPhone 17 series is only part of the story. He highlighted an industry-wide shift as the primary driver behind the boost in Apple’s shipment forecast.

“Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point. Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase,” Wang said.

Samsung, meanwhile, faces a tougher landscape. Counterpoint noted that Chinese manufacturers are applying pressure in the low-to-mid-tier segments of the market, making it harder for the South Korean company to reclaim the top spot. That competition is particularly intense in regions where value-priced Android devices continue to outsell premium phones.

Long-term advantage for Apple

Looking further ahead, Counterpoint Research forecasts that Apple will maintain the number-one position through 2029. The firm points to several structural advantages underpinning Apple’s long-term dominance.

One key factor is the vast second-hand market for iPhones. Counterpoint noted that about 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025. Many of those users remain locked into Apple’s ecosystem and are likely to upgrade to brand-new models in the coming years, maintaining a steady demand pipeline.

Apple has also benefited from external and macroeconomic factors. The company experienced a lower-than-expected impact from tariffs under the existing U.S.–China trade truce, which helped stabilize its supply chain. Meanwhile, growth in emerging markets and a weaker U.S. dollar supported demand for iPhones during periods when other premium smartphone brands faced slower consumer spending.

“With these structural tailwinds, Apple is well-positioned to surpass Samsung in annual shipments in 2025,” Wang said.

Counterpoint added that Apple’s product roadmap could help preserve its lead through the decade. The firm expects Apple to launch the entry-level iPhone 17e in 2026, alongside a foldable iPhone that would allow the company to compete directly with foldable-focused brands such as Samsung and Huawei.

The research firm also pointed to ongoing improvements to Apple’s virtual assistant Siri and said a major iPhone design overhaul is expected in 2027 — changes that could reinvigorate demand across regions.

Apple’s strategy now includes widening price tiers to reach more consumers. Apple aims to strengthen its grip on the lower premium smartphone segment — an area projected to grow faster than the broader market- by expanding the “e” series, adjusting the launch cadence for its Pro and base models, and tailoring devices for aspirational buyers in emerging markets.

“Given an increasing preference for the iOS ecosystem, compatibility between devices and a substantial number of older models within Apple’s installed base due for renewal, Apple will retain the lead over other smartphone OEMs through the end of the decade,” Counterpoint said.