Nigeria could see a significant shift in its monetary policy trajectory by 2025, as Stanbic IBTC Bank projects interest rate cuts of 150 to 200 basis points, with further reductions expected in 2026.

This comes on the back of easing inflation and broader economic reforms that are beginning to reshape the country’s economic landscape.

According to the bank’s latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report, released in early July, inflationary pressures are expected to ease considerably over the next 18 months, paving the way for a looser monetary stance by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

Muyiwa Oni, Stanbic IBTC’s Head of Equity Research for West Africa, stated that, with inflation softening and growth outlook improving, interest rates are likely to fall — unlocking growth across key sectors.

“We expect 150/200 bps rate cut in 2025 and 200/250 bps in 2026. These, along with structural reforms and the removal of protectionist policies, should support Nigeria’s medium-term growth path,” Oni said in the report.

The June PMI reading, which stood at 51.6, indicates continued expansion in private sector activity — albeit at a slower pace than the 52.7 recorded in May. This marks the slowest expansion in seven months and is largely due to sluggish performance in manufacturing, which saw a sharp drop in output. Despite this deceleration, business confidence remains high, fueled by optimism over future investments, economic reforms, and expected improvements in the macroeconomic environment.

Economic Outlook: Growth, Investment, and Post-Rebasing Boost

Stanbic IBTC expects Nigeria’s economy to grow by 3.5% in 2025, a modest but stable expansion rate. However, with Nigeria planning a GDP rebasing exercise, the growth outlook could rise to 4.2%, as the rebasing would provide a more accurate reflection of economic activity, including expanding digital and service sectors.

This optimism stems from a combination of factors — including stronger fiscal coordination, improved foreign exchange availability, and the dampening effect of ongoing reforms on inflation and the cost of doing business.

Inflation Declining, But Still Elevated

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that headline inflation fell to 22.97% in May 2025, down from 23.71% in April — the second consecutive monthly decline. Though inflation remains well above the CBN’s long-term target range of 6–9%, the recent trend offers hope of a turnaround, especially as food inflation — a key driver — begins to ease due to better harvests and reduced logistics costs.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the CBN has paused its aggressive tightening stance for the second time this year, holding the benchmark interest rate at 27.50% in its last two meetings. The move signals a shift toward a wait-and-see approach as inflation moderates and economic activity stabilizes.

Analysts believe the next MPC meeting, scheduled for July 21–22, 2025, will be crucial in shaping the monetary policy outlook for the rest of the year. A sustained decline in inflation, alongside continued implementation of fiscal and structural reforms, could convince the MPC to initiate the first rate cut cycle since 2021.

Policy Challenges and Risks

While optimism abounds, Stanbic IBTC cautions that several risks could still undermine the recovery:

• Persistent exchange rate volatility could reignite inflation.
• Rising debt service costs could squeeze fiscal space.
• Political resistance to subsidy reforms or tax increases may stall fiscal consolidation.
• Weak infrastructure and insecurity could hinder investment inflows.

Nevertheless, the anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to improve credit conditions, stimulate consumer spending, and attract more private investment — all of which are necessary to boost Nigeria’s fragile recovery.

In summary, Nigeria appears to be on a cautious but hopeful path toward economic normalization, with falling inflation, structural reforms, and rate cuts on the horizon. The months ahead will be critical in determining whether these early signals translate into sustained, inclusive growth.

Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup, xAI, has secured a permit to operate natural gas-burning turbines at its controversial supercomputer facility in Memphis, Tennessee, despite mounting public opposition and legal pressure.

The permit, issued by the Shelby County Health Department on July 2, allows the company to power its Colossus datacenter using 15 gas turbines, which have become the focus of heated environmental and health concerns from residents and advocacy groups.

The approval comes after months of protests and public hearings during which local residents criticized the project’s effect on air quality in the surrounding neighborhood. Many said the operation of the turbines had already resulted in air pollution so severe that they could no longer open their windows or exercise outside without experiencing strong odors and discomfort.

According to specifications from Solaris Energy Infrastructure (SEI), the Houston-based company installing the turbines, the machines emit pollutants including nitrogen oxides and formaldehyde—substances linked to increased respiratory illness and long-term health risks. Solaris markets itself as a rapid-deployment energy firm for data centers and industrial operations with large, immediate power needs.

The permit comes with strict conditions: xAI must adhere to emissions limits, conduct environmental testing, and meet regulatory deadlines or face penalties of up to $10,000 per day for each violation. However, many believe the enforcement mechanisms remain weak and the decision marks a disregard for community health.

Adding to the controversy, the Southern Environmental Law Center, which is representing the NAACP in an ongoing lawsuit against xAI, said satellite imagery taken on July 1—just one day before the permit was granted—showed “at least 24 turbines” on the property. That number exceeds the 15 turbines the permit allows to be operational.

The NAACP has accused xAI of violating the Clean Air Act, and the law center said it had previously documented more than 35 turbines at the site, many running simultaneously, in breach of environmental laws.

The permit also followed a leadership shake-up within the local health authority, with Bruce Randolph named interim director of the Shelby County Health Department just one day before the decision was announced.

xAI’s Response and Future Plans

xAI responded to the controversy on Wednesday, telling CNBC that it welcomed the decision by county officials. The company claimed the site would feature “state-of-the-art emissions control technology,” adding that Colossus would be the “lowest emitting of its kind in the country.”

Yet, the community remains unconvinced. Local residents and environmental activists point out that natural gas turbines—even with advanced control systems—still release significant pollutants, and their placement in a residential area raises questions about environmental justice.

Beyond Colossus, xAI is already plotting its next move. The company intends to build an even larger datacenter in the Memphis area, again with SEI providing the turbines. This expansion effort is being powered by a fresh round of capital: a combined $10 billion in debt and equity raised this week, led in part by Morgan Stanley.

xAI, which recently merged with Musk’s social media platform X in a deal valuing the combined entity at $80 billion, is working to compete directly with AI titans like Google’s Gemini and OpenAI’s ChatGPT. The Memphis facility serves as the backbone for the company’s AI chatbot, Grok, now integrated into X.

Tesla, another Musk-owned company, is also benefiting from the project. According to recent filings, xAI spent around $191 million in 2024 and another $36.8 million in early 2025 on Tesla’s Megapacks—large-scale battery systems used to store backup power for critical infrastructure.

Rising Tensions Over AI-Powered Infrastructure

The rapid buildout of energy-hungry data centers in urban and suburban areas has triggered widespread concern, with communities increasingly pushing back on the environmental costs of powering next-generation AI systems. While companies like xAI claim to be investing in clean energy innovations, critics argue the continued reliance on fossil fuels—even in “state-of-the-art” formats—is a step backward in the fight against climate change.

The Memphis case now joins a growing number of legal and social battles surrounding AI infrastructure, particularly in historically underserved communities. With lawsuits pending, further regulatory scrutiny likely, and construction still underway, Musk’s AI ambitions in Tennessee may face even more resistance before the supercomputers fully come online.

JPMorgan Chase, through its blockchain unit Kinexys, is piloting a program to tokenize carbon credits in collaboration with S&P Global Commodity Insights, EcoRegistry, and the International Carbon Registry. The initiative aims to convert carbon credits—each representing one ton of CO2 removed or not emitted—into digital tokens on a blockchain to enhance transparency, traceability, and efficiency in the voluntary carbon market.

This market has faced challenges like fragmentation, lack of standardization, and credibility issues due to concerns over double-counting and greenwashing. By leveraging blockchain, JPMorgan seeks to create a unified, tradable ecosystem for carbon credits, potentially improving liquidity and trust. The pilot focuses on tracking credits from issuance to retirement, addressing past tokenization pitfalls. Alastair Northway, head of natural resource advisory at JPMorgan Payments, noted the market’s potential for innovation, with the bank aiming to become a leader in climate finance. The voluntary carbon market could reach $2 trillion by 2030 if infrastructure improves, though risks like regulatory divergence remain.

Tokenizing carbon credits on a blockchain ensures immutable records of issuance, trading, and retirement, reducing risks of double-counting and fraud. This could rebuild confidence in the voluntary carbon market, which has been criticized for greenwashing and lack of credibility. Digital tokens can standardize and streamline trading, making carbon credits more liquid and accessible to a broader range of investors and companies. This could drive market growth, potentially reaching the projected $2 trillion valuation by 2030.

Blockchain-based systems automate processes like verification and settlement, cutting costs and time compared to traditional carbon credit trading, which often involves fragmented registries and manual processes. Success in this pilot could position JPMorgan as a leader in climate finance, encouraging other financial institutions to adopt similar technologies. This could accelerate investment in carbon reduction projects globally.

While tokenization addresses some market issues, divergent global regulations and lack of universal standards for carbon credits could hinder scalability. Harmonization will be critical for a cohesive global market. By making carbon credits more tradable and trustworthy, the initiative could incentivize more companies to offset emissions, supporting global decarbonization efforts. However, the effectiveness depends on the quality and verification of the underlying credits.

Blockchain enhances transparency but doesn’t inherently solve issues like the environmental integrity of credits. Poorly designed projects could still undermine the system’s impact if not rigorously vetted. Established players in the carbon market, like traditional registries or brokers, may face competition from blockchain-based platforms, potentially reshaping market dynamics and business models. This move could catalyze innovation in climate finance but requires careful navigation of regulatory, technical, and environmental challenges to realize its full potential.

JPMorgan’s carbon credit tokenization initiative could transform the VCM by enhancing transparency, efficiency, and liquidity, potentially unlocking significant climate finance. However, its success depends on overcoming technical, regulatory, and credibility challenges. While blockchain offers promising tools, it cannot address underlying issues like project quality or greenwashing without complementary reforms.

The initiative signals a convergence of climate finance and blockchain innovation, but its real-world impact will hinge on rigorous execution and alignment with global climate goals. Stakeholders should monitor the pilot’s outcomes, particularly its ability to deliver verifiable environmental benefits alongside financial gains