The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited posted one of the strongest revenue years in its history, generating N29.21 trillion from crude oil sales in 2024 — more than double the N14.07 trillion reported in 2023.

The company’s newly released audited financial statements show a sweeping rise across nearly every revenue stream, driven by increased crude production, stronger export flows, and a widening network of international buyers.

Total revenue from customer contracts climbed to N45.08 trillion in 2024, sharply up from N23.99 trillion the previous year, with crude oil contributing the largest share. Petroleum product earnings rose from N7.15 trillion to N9.68 trillion, while natural gas revenue jumped to N5.20 trillion from N2.30 trillion. The services segment, which covers seismic work, marine operations, engineering services, and gas transmission fees, also grew significantly to N980.46 billion from N464.94 billion.

The revenue surge reflects a company that appears to have moved past its historically lackluster performance. However, analysts who reviewed the financial statements note that, despite the impressive rise, NNPCL’s earnings still pale compared with global peers. They point out that the company’s 2024 revenue is only about three percent of Saudi Aramco’s 2024 turnover. The contrast underscores the scale gap between Nigeria’s national oil company and the world’s dominant state-run producer, even though both have access to vast reserves.

Nigeria remained NNPCL’s strongest market, contributing N34.41 trillion in 2024, nearly double the N18.29 trillion posted in 2023. Crude sales within Nigeria amounted to N19.59 trillion, petroleum products N9.68 trillion, natural gas N4.16 trillion, services N973.45 billion, and power N9.42 billion.

Outside Nigeria, Switzerland led the pack with N2.14 trillion in revenue, driven almost entirely by crude liftings of N2.12 trillion. Spain generated N1.40 trillion, the UAE N1.26 trillion, France N1.19 trillion, Singapore N979.90 billion, and the UK N743.90 billion, lower than the N993.72 billion recorded in 2023. Smaller or new markets such as Italy, Vietnam, and Cyprus surfaced in 2024, signaling ongoing diversification in export destinations.

At the standalone company level, NNPCL earned N19.66 trillion in 2024, more than double the N8.13 trillion recorded the previous year. Crude sales rose from N7.03 trillion to N17.39 trillion, natural gas from N951.61 billion to N2.10 trillion, and petroleum products from N151.79 billion to N158.81 billion. Panama unexpectedly emerged as the largest revenue source for the standalone entity, contributing N14.77 trillion, mostly from crude shipments. Nigeria followed with N4.85 trillion, and Ghana delivered N37.54 billion.

Most group revenue — N40.49 trillion — was recognized at a point in time, indicating revenue was booked once control of crude, gas, or petroleum products passed to buyers. The remaining N4.58 trillion was recognized over time, largely from gas contracts and services.

Troubling Pipeline Security Deals

However, beneath the strong headline numbers, analysts found features of the financial statements that raise questions about crude allocation and national fiscal priorities. Energy economist Kelvin Emmanuel drew attention to what he described as confirmation of long-rumored crude allocations tied to pipeline security arrangements.

“For months I have been saying that the government is giving crude oil daily to militants for pipeline protection. Now that the NNPC’s financial statement shows that N7.1 trillion was disbursed in 2024 from supposed subsidy savings for pipeline security contracts,” Emmanuel said.

“I am sure the 78k to 110k barrels p.d is now confirmed,” he added.

According to the financial statement, a portion of the crude volumes classified as “subsidy savings” was redirected as daily allocations across several channels. The breakdown includes 312,000 barrels per day tied to subsidy savings in the crude allocation framework. Out of this, 110,000 barrels were assigned to pipeline security contracts. Another 202,000 barrels went into what Emmanuel described as funding for parallel accounts not covered by approved budgets, such as the coastal road and Lagos airport rehabilitation fund.

While the company did not respond to these interpretations, analysts have pointed out that such commitments have practical consequences. One of the immediate effects, they say, is NNPCL’s inability to meet its crude supply obligations to the Dangote Refinery.

“But Dangote has to import 53% of the crude he uses daily from mostly America,” Emmanuel said.

He argued that the refinery has been navigating two major hurdles. “If it’s not the JV partners trying to strangle him with an additional $3 per barrel commission by routing feedstock through their third party trading houses (that do not pay tax to Nigerian government), and then claiming ‘willing buyer, willing seller’, it’s NNPC telling him that all their barrels are committed.”

This situation has intensified criticism of Nigeria’s crude allocation structure, particularly as the country battles foreign exchange shortages, fuel import dependence, and rising domestic energy costs. Analysts have noted that a national refinery of that scale relying on imported crude not only raises costs but also weakens the original policy objective behind its establishment — to reduce import dependence and conserve foreign exchange.

Despite the strong earnings, energy economists warn that the company’s financial position continues to mirror Nigeria’s broader oil sector struggles. The numbers capture what happens when production rises, trading improves, and buyers increase. They also expose how allocations, off-the-book commitments, and structurally embedded leakages drag the national oil company away from its core commercial obligations.