As the tariff war between China and the United States intensifies, Beijing is making swift moves to recalibrate its global trade strategy, and Nigeria appears to be one of the key players in this realignment.

Speaking during a press conference in Abuja on Friday, the Chinese Ambassador to Nigeria, Yu Dunhai, described the latest U.S.-China tariff confrontation not simply as a setback, but as an opening to reinforce economic and trade ties with African nations, particularly Nigeria.

Yu, echoing Beijing’s broader diplomatic tone, described the tariffs as a “crisis with opportunities,” underscoring China’s intention to deepen cooperation with Nigeria in ways that could reshape the contours of its international trade alliances.

Yu’s remarks come as China officially responded to President Donald Trump’s sweeping 145% tariff hikes on Chinese goods by slapping its own countermeasures—raising tariffs on American imports from 84% to a staggering 125%, effective April 12, 2025. The move not only marks a significant escalation in the trade standoff but also signals Beijing’s growing urgency to look elsewhere for stable trade partners.

He pointed to China’s zero-tariff pledges for African least-developed countries as one of the concrete steps taken to back its rhetoric with action. These measures, announced during the most recent Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), are already opening doors for African exports and could serve as a critical economic boost for countries like Nigeria battling inflation, weakened currency, and an overburdened import bill.

“African nations are committed to development and revitalization, which requires a free, open multilateral trading system and a stable, predictable global environment,” Yu stated, directly linking Africa’s growth ambitions to China’s global outreach.

Beijing Shifts to Africa, Asia, and Beyond

But while China’s outreach to Nigeria may appear like a diplomatic gesture, it is in fact part of a broader and more calculated effort to rewire its global supply chains and reduce dependence on Western markets.

Beyond Africa, Chinese President Xi Jinping has also embarked on a strategic diplomatic tour across Asia in recent weeks, meeting with leaders in countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand to strengthen regional cooperation and trade ties. These visits are part of China’s accelerated push to secure new trade routes, negotiate alternative tariff arrangements, and advance its Belt and Road Initiative amid growing friction with Washington.

According to state media, Xi’s tour focused heavily on economic agreements covering agriculture, digital infrastructure, renewable energy, and transport—sectors China is also eyeing in Nigeria and other African nations.

Analysts believe these moves represent a calculated attempt by Beijing to diversify its trade portfolio and shore up economic resilience, especially as Chinese exports to the United States face tightening restrictions and higher costs.

For African countries, including Nigeria, this geopolitical tension is being framed by Beijing as a unique opportunity to plug into alternative supply chains and secure investment deals previously dominated by U.S. or European counterparts.

Yu said that China’s decades-long presence in Africa has earned it the trust of governments and people, noting that infrastructure projects, technical cooperation, and investment deals have continued even during global economic slowdowns.

In Nigeria, China has already funded and executed a number of high-profile infrastructure projects, including railways, airports, and power stations. However, critics say many of these deals have come with questionable terms, including opaque loan agreements and limited knowledge transfer.

Still, Yu insisted that China remains committed to transparency and mutual benefit, calling Nigeria “a natural partner in the journey toward shared prosperity.”

He added that trade relations could be expanded not only through zero-tariff arrangements but also via new investment flows into manufacturing, digital technology, and energy infrastructure.

At the heart of Yu’s message was a rebuke of growing protectionist tendencies, which he said pose a threat to countries that rely on international trade for development. While he did not mention the U.S. by name, his criticism was a clear reference to Trump’s hardline trade policies, which have drawn similar pushback from Europe and other parts of Asia.

“Together, we will uphold the multilateral trading system, resist protectionism, and foster an open, inclusive, and fair international environment,” he said, reaffirming China’s positioning as a defender of globalization in contrast to Washington’s more insular trade agenda.

Yu also used the moment to renew China’s support for creating a more balanced, multipolar world order—where all countries, regardless of size, have an equal say in global governance.

“Our shared goal is to advance an equal and orderly multipolar world and a universally beneficial and inclusive economic globalization, building a community with a shared future for humanity,” he concluded.

Nigeria’s Dilemma—and Opportunity

For Nigeria, the diplomatic overture from China offers both promise and caution. While Beijing’s support could bring needed capital and trade access at a time when Nigeria is struggling with low growth and weak exports, there is rising scrutiny over the terms of Chinese engagement. Nigerian lawmakers and civil society groups have increasingly raised concerns about the opacity of Chinese loans and the risk of mortgaging strategic assets.

However, in the absence of strong Western economic support, and amid declining capital inflows, China’s proposal to deepen ties may appear too timely to ignore.

As rising nationalism, trade protectionism, and shifting alliances reshape the global economy, Nigeria may be forced to make strategic choices about which global powers to align with.

Analysts have noted that the U.S.-China trade war, while disruptive, is also offering Abuja the rare chance to renegotiate its position in the global market if it can navigate the emerging power game with foresight and prudence.

Happy Easter and let me wish everyone a Happy Resurrection Day via this short video. Resurrection brings a new life, and I am praying that your career, family, etc will experience the power of His resurrection.

As we say in the Scripture Union, His resurrection will resolve any challenge – grace infinite.  And your next praise will be better because  you will discover new songs. The next praise of the business model. The next praise of academics.  The next praise of your life aspirations. All will be better because resurrection resolves all frictions.

Prayer with your Bible Study teacher and ex-Scripture Union secondary school cell lead: “Oh Lord, as you send your angels to bless men and women today, our hands are raised up. Because you have qualified us, through grace, we cannot be strangers before you, for blessings. May we experience the abundance and victory of Easter in our lives today and forever. Thank You Lord”

Happy Easter from my family to yours.

Nigeria’s foreign exchange market in January 2025 tells a story of shifting control—one that subtly exposes the weakening grip of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) over the country’s forex inflows, even as private players quietly expand their footprint.

According to the January 2025 Economic Report released by the CBN on April 17, net foreign exchange inflows into the economy dropped to $4.79 billion, down 4.49% from $5.01 billion recorded in December 2024. At first glance, this may seem like a minor dip. But scratch beneath the surface and a deeper trend becomes evident: the sharp decline in CBN-led inflows contrasts starkly with the surge in autonomous inflows—those from non-government sources like private exporters, international investors, and diaspora remittances.

The central bank’s share of foreign exchange inflows plummeted to $2.33 billion in January, a dramatic fall from $4.09 billion in December—a 43% drop in just one month. On the other hand, autonomous inflows surged to $7.31 billion from $6.08 billion, marking a growing confidence in private channel participation amid the government’s struggle to maintain its influence in the FX ecosystem.

While aggregate inflows fell from $10.17 billion to $9.63 billion during the period, foreign exchange outflows also eased to $4.84 billion from $5.17 billion. But it’s the breakdown of these flows that truly reshapes the narrative. Outflows through the CBN dropped to $3.80 billion from $4.16 billion, yet that reduction did not cushion the impact of falling inflows through the same channel. What resulted was a net outflow of $1.47 billion via the CBN—a reversal from the marginal net outflow of $0.07 billion in December. Autonomous sources, by contrast, posted a net inflow of $6.26 billion, up from $5.07 billion.

Naira Finds Strength, Turnover Rises

The foreign exchange market itself responded in kind. The naira appreciated at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), strengthening by 1.16% to an average of N1,535.94 per US dollar in January from N1,553.73 in December. The end-period exchange rate fared even better, gaining 3.90% to close at N1,478.22 from N1,535.82.

Increased confidence among market participants also translated into activity. Average daily turnover on the NFEM jumped 18.30% to $408.49 million, up from $345.30 million in December, underscoring a more liquid market with greater participation—again, largely driven by the non-official segment.

Is CBN Losing Its Grip on FX Inflow?

While the improvement in the exchange rate and growing liquidity appear encouraging, the underlying shift in forex inflow dynamics calls for concern. A declining share of inflows through the CBN signals dwindling government capacity to intervene in the market when necessary. This erosion of influence can become problematic if external shocks hit—especially in the absence of robust reserves or policy buffers.

It also poses a challenge to the country’s balance of payments, which leans heavily on oil receipts and foreign investments typically channeled through official sources. As the CBN recedes, the onus shifts to private capital to plug the gap—an unreliable solution at best in an economy where investor confidence can evaporate quickly.

Yet the rise in autonomous inflows may offer some hope. It reflects renewed activity among non-oil exporters, possibly spurred by exchange rate adjustments and sustained remittance flows. If properly incentivized and regulated, these inflows could become more stable over time and help Nigeria reduce its overreliance on oil-linked forex.

The CBN’s declining role also speaks to broader questions of confidence in government-led monetary policy. The foreign exchange market has long been plagued by dual rates, inconsistent interventions, and a lack of transparency. Investors and exporters often prefer alternative channels to avoid bureaucratic delays or unfavorable rates. The result is an FX market where informal and autonomous channels increasingly call the shots.

Going forward, economic analysts argue that simply watching the naira appreciate month to month is not enough. They note that the government must address core structural problems: rebuild external reserves, improve non-oil exports, and restore trust in CBN’s policy framework.

According to them, Nigeria’s foreign exchange scene may continue to be dominated by autonomous actors, not out of strength, but because the official channels have ceded ground if the above steps are not taken.