Nigeria is on course to fully repay its International Monetary Fund (IMF) Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) loan by 2029, marking a key milestone in the country’s recovery from the COVID-19-induced economic crisis of 2020.

In April 2020, the IMF approved emergency support worth 2,454.50 million Special Drawing Rights (SDR), roughly equivalent to $3.32 billion at the current exchange rate of SDR1 to $1.35404 as of May 1, 2025. The support came at a time when Nigeria was grappling with plunging oil prices, capital flight, and widespread macroeconomic shocks triggered by the pandemic.

As per the repayment schedule published on the IMF website, Nigeria’s repayment timeline begins in 2025 and concludes in 2029. This year, the country is expected to make its final principal payment of SDR 306.81 million, along with charges and interest of SDR 22.81 million, bringing total payments in 2025 to SDR 329.62 million, or about $446.21 million.

From 2026 to 2029, remaining repayments will consist mainly of annual interest and charges, each year estimated at SDR 26.7 million, amounting to approximately $36.14 million annually. In total, Nigeria will pay back SDR 436.42 million ($590.78 million) over the five-year period.

Earlier in 2024, Nigeria paid a substantial $1.63 billion to the IMF, made up entirely of principal payments on past disbursements, which contributed to a 67.6 percent reduction in the country’s debt to the Fund—from $2.47 billion in 2023 to $800.23 million in 2024.

This reduction came against the backdrop of increased external debt servicing, which rose to $4.66 billion in 2024, compared to $3.5 billion in 2023. Multilateral creditors, led by the IMF, accounted for the largest share of that burden.

Unlike traditional IMF loans, the RFI support came with minimal conditionalities and was disbursed in full immediately. The absence of policy strings made it a quick-response tool during the pandemic but also raised concerns among some observers then about how judiciously the funds would be used.

Those concerns haven’t entirely disappeared.

Despite Nigeria’s progress in repayment, critics warn that structural issues, particularly endemic corruption, weak transparency mechanisms, and the absence of institutional accountability—continue to raise doubts about how such emergency funds were deployed and whether they achieved their intended impact.

Moreover, while the IMF commended Nigeria’s macroeconomic reforms and its effort to meet repayment obligations without refinancing or restructuring, governance challenges remain. President Bola Tinubu’s administration has pushed through key reforms, including the elimination of petrol subsidies, exchange rate unification, and steps to improve tax revenue collection.

However, the macroeconomic gains from these reforms are yet to trickle down meaningfully. Inflation remains high at 24.23 percent as of March 2025, and purchasing power for many Nigerians continues to decline. Debt servicing costs still crowd out critical development spending, and social safety nets remain inadequate.

Still, global institutions appear to be betting on Nigeria’s reform momentum. Both the IMF and World Bank project modest economic growth in the near term, with the latter expecting a 3.6 percent expansion in 2025, slightly ahead of the IMF’s 3.0 percent forecast. The country’s external reserves have remained stable due to improved oil earnings and diaspora remittances. A current account surplus is also anticipated by 2026.

The IMF has praised Nigeria’s strides in macroeconomic stability, but it has also issued a note of caution, urging more aggressive structural reforms and stronger anti-corruption safeguards to consolidate gains.

Analysts note that Nigeria’s ability to wrap up its IMF loan by 2029 would indeed improve its international credit profile, potentially easing access to global capital markets. But repayment, in itself, is not a sign of long-term recovery. For that to happen, Nigeria has been urged to diversify its economy, build infrastructure, eradicate systemic corruption, and create a friendly business environment.

The President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, has issued a stark warning that Nigeria is in the grips of an economic regression deeper than many realize, declaring that the average Nigerian today is poorer than at the dawn of independence in 1960.

Speaking during the 20th-anniversary dinner of investment firm Chapel Hill Denham in Lagos, Adesina laid bare Nigeria’s economic contradictions, drawing attention to the country’s low GDP per capita, which now stands at $824 — less than half the $1,847 recorded in 1960, when Nigeria gained independence from Britain.

“Our GDP per capita in 1960 was $1,847. Today, it stands at $824. Nigerians are worse off than 64 years ago,” Adesina said in a statement released on Thursday following his keynote address. “Underdevelopment should not be accepted as our destiny. We must break free from this pattern.”

Despite claims by the federal government that its economic reforms will yield a $1 trillion economy by 2030, Adesina warned that Nigeria’s economic structure remains “deeply flawed and unsustainable.” The AfDB chief blamed the country’s economic slide on decades of policy failures, institutional decay, over-dependence on crude oil exports, and an inability to invest meaningfully in critical sectors.

A Country of Wasted Potential

Adesina contrasted Nigeria’s stagnant growth with the meteoric rise of South Korea, a country that had a lower GDP per capita than Nigeria in 1960 but has since industrialized to become a global economic power, with a per capita income of more than $36,000. South Korea’s success, he noted, was driven by a deliberate policy shift that prioritized manufacturing, innovation, and education — areas Nigeria continues to neglect.

“Nigeria belongs in the league of developed nations. To get there, we must shift our mindset and pursue rapid economic growth,” Adesina said. “We must become Africa’s industrial powerhouse.”

The former Nigerian agriculture minister said the current state of Nigeria’s economy — one plagued by deindustrialization, extreme poverty, unreliable power supply, and widespread youth unemployment — is not the result of fate, but of years of neglect and poor leadership.

“The Nigeria of 2050 must be deliberately shaped, developed, corruption-free, and lead the rest of Africa,” he said.

Five Pillars for Economic Redemption

In his speech, Adesina laid out five urgent priorities to pull Nigeria out of its current trajectory and place it on a path to inclusive, sustainable growth:

1. Universal access to electricity, which he described as non-negotiable for industrialization and innovation
2. Development of world-class infrastructure, especially in transportation and digital networks
3. Rapid industrialization that shifts Nigeria’s economy away from primary commodity dependence
4. Innovation-driven growth, with significant investment in education, research, and technology
5. Competitive agriculture, not just for food security but as a strategic export sector.

Adesina stressed that these reforms cannot be superficial or cosmetic but must involve deep structural changes supported by effective governance and institutional strength.

“Without credible reforms, Nigeria will continue to miss out on global opportunities and fail its growing population,” he warned.

He cited the Dangote Refinery, Africa’s largest oil refinery, as an example of the kind of private sector-led industrial project that represents a step in the right direction. He urged policymakers to see such projects not as exceptions but as models to replicate and scale up across different sectors.

Funding Transformation Through Domestic Capital

To finance Nigeria’s transformation, Adesina urged the government and private sector leaders to harness the country’s domestic resources, including its massive pension fund assets, which now exceed N19 trillion, its capital markets, and the global Nigerian diaspora. These, he said, should be leveraged to fund large-scale industrial and infrastructure projects, rather than relying excessively on foreign debt or aid.

“There is no shortage of capital. What is missing is the confidence in governance and the consistency of policy that gives investors the courage to commit,” Adesina said.

Governance Still the Elephant in the Room

Adesina was unequivocal in stating that structural reforms alone would not be enough. He emphasized that the success of any economic agenda would depend on the strength of institutions, the rule of law, and the eradication of corruption. Without these, he warned, reforms risk being undermined or reversed.

“This is not just about economic plans. It’s about leadership, integrity, and the political will to do what is right, even when it is hard,” he said.

Adesina’s sobering remarks come on the heels of the World Bank’s April 2025 Africa’s Pulse report, which paints an even grimmer picture of Nigeria’s development path. According to the report, Nigeria is home to 19% of sub-Saharan Africa’s extremely poor population, the highest share in the region. That means roughly one in every seven of the world’s poorest people now lives in Nigeria.

The World Bank noted that sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 80% of the world’s 695 million extremely poor people in 2024, with Nigeria contributing the largest share. The statistics directly challenge claims by Nigerian officials who often tout GDP growth without addressing its failure to reduce poverty and improve human development outcomes.

The collapse of real incomes, double-digit inflation, and currency instability have eroded living standards for millions of Nigerians, many of whom now struggle to afford basic necessities. Despite being a major oil producer, Nigeria remains one of the most energy-poor countries in the world, with over 90 million people lacking reliable electricity.

Adesina’s message, that Nigeria is poorer today than it was 64 years ago, directly contradicts decades of government rhetoric celebrating nominal economic expansion. Amid growing public disillusionment with the political and economic elite, he urged the Nigerian leadership to up the ante.

“We cannot continue to squander our potential. The time to act is now,” he said.

Fidelity Bank Plc has opened 2025 with a powerful earnings statement, reporting a pre-tax profit of N107.77 billion for the first quarter, a 167.79% year-on-year leap – signaling that its recent strategic moves, including a successful capital raise, are already delivering returns to investors.

The performance, announced in the bank’s unaudited financial statement for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, confirms a continuation of the bank’s growth trajectory, with earnings underpinned by a sharp increase in interest income, disciplined cost management, and improved asset quality.

The result also bolsters investor sentiment following last year’s oversubscribed public offers and rights issue, which Fidelity Bank launched as part of its plan to meet the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) N500 billion minimum capital requirement for tier-one banks. The recapitalization directive, issued in March 2024, gave banks a 24-month window to bolster their capital base to improve financial system stability.

Fidelity Bank’s combined capital raise via public offer and rights issue, which closed in late 2024 — drew massive interest from investors, who were betting on the bank’s profitability and management’s strategy. This Q1 result now serves as proof that those bets are beginning to pay off. Fidelity Bank raised a total of N231.97 billion through its public offer. The offer received applications for 23.79 billion shares valued at N231.97 billion. The bank initially aimed to raise N97.5 billion through the public offer, with a total capital raise of N127.1 billion including a rights issue.

Core Earnings Drive Profit Surge

Gross earnings rose to N315.42 billion in Q1 2025, a 64.21% increase from the N192.1 billion recorded in the same period last year. The bulk of this came from interest income, which surged 65.44% year-on-year to N281.47 billion. Notably, 75% of interest income came from loans and advances to customers, affirming the bank’s aggressive but disciplined lending stance. Investment in securities added another 18.31% to interest income.

At the same time, interest expenses rose to N90.65 billion, a 28.58% increase, largely due to rising deposit rates. However, this accounted for just 32% of total interest income, a marked improvement from 41.14% in Q1 2024, meaning Fidelity is now retaining a greater share of its income.

Net interest income jumped 91.52% to N190.82 billion, while net interest income after credit loss provisions grew 111.45% to N184.53 billion. The bank’s cost of risk fell significantly, with credit loss expenses dropping by nearly half to N6.28 billion, down from N12.37 billion a year earlier — indicating fewer bad loans and improved loan book quality.

Non-Interest Income and Fee Growth

Fidelity Bank also made significant headway in its non-lending business. Fees and commission income rose 30.10% year-on-year to N23.82 billion. While income from account maintenance fees slightly declined, the bank saw a 57% jump in earnings from traveler’s cheques and foreign bills and a 23.38% increase in commissions from letters of credit. Fee and commission expenses, however, rose by 37.56% to N2.67 billion.

Ultimately, net profit for the period rose to N91.10 billion, up from N31.44 billion in Q1 2024 — a growth of 189.75%. This translated to earnings per share of N1.81, representing an 84.69% improvement from N0.98 recorded a year earlier.

Balance Sheet Expansion and Liquidity Strength

Fidelity Bank’s balance sheet continues to expand at pace. Total assets climbed to N10.45 trillion, representing an 18.48% growth from the same quarter in 2024. The bank also recorded a sharp increase in cash and cash equivalents, which jumped by 128.90% to N1.62 trillion — a key indicator of the bank’s healthy liquidity position.

Loans and advances to customers rose 4.96% to N4.61 trillion, underlining controlled lending growth despite aggressive interest income expansion. Customer deposits also grew by 11.15% to N6.60 trillion, reflecting sustained depositor confidence and strong mobilization of retail and institutional funds.

Shareholders’ funds rose slightly by 3.39% to N933.14 billion, boosted by retained earnings and capital injection from the recently concluded public offers.

A Payout for Investor Faith

With its Q1 profit now standing at over N107 billion, roughly 75% of its full-year 2024 pre-tax earnings of N140 billion, Fidelity has effectively rewarded investor confidence just months after their commitment. The performance suggests the bank is on track to deliver another record-breaking year.

The Q1 earnings also improve the bank’s capacity to retain profits for future capital buffers while maintaining dividend potential — a key attraction for retail shareholders.

On the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), Fidelity Bank began the year trading at N17.50 per share. As of the close of Q1 2025, the stock had gained 14%, making it the 48th best-performing stock on the exchange in year-to-date rankings. This upward movement mirrors growing investor optimism, especially as the broader banking sector enters a period of transformation under the CBN’s capital restructuring directive.

Analysts say Fidelity Bank’s result strengthens its positioning to become one of the strongest indigenous players in the tier-one banking space. Its ability to mobilize deposits, grow interest income, maintain cost discipline, and manage risk effectively, while also attracting market capital, puts it in a favorable spot as Nigerian banks adjust to tougher regulatory and economic conditions.