Nigeria’s commercial engagement with other African nations strengthened sharply in the first half of the year, with intra-African trade rising 14% amid a renewed government push to overhaul border processes and deepen regional connectivity.

The data, released on Monday by the Comptroller-General of the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS), Bashir Adewale Adeniyi, offers one of the clearest signs yet that Nigeria is beginning to benefit from a more integrated continental market.

Adeniyi told participants at a trade conference in Abuja that trade with African partners jumped by 600 billion naira (about $415 million) to 4.82 trillion naira between January and June. He described the growth as a firm signal that Nigeria’s regional trade reforms are gaining traction.

“This is a clear signal of strengthening regional trade momentum,” he said.

Nigeria’s exports to member states within the Economic Community of West African States saw a marked increase as well, which he said highlighted the country’s rising importance as a hub for continental trade and emerging value chains.

The gains coincide with government efforts to remove long-standing trade barriers. Authorities have been digitizing customs procedures, reducing clearance times, and improving transport links with neighboring countries, all aimed at easing the movement of goods across borders. Weak road networks, bureaucratic delays, and a lack of harmonized documentation have historically been some of the biggest obstacles to intra-African trade.

Nigeria’s reforms are part of a broader strategy to position the country advantageously under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the landmark agreement that aims to create a unified market of more than 1.3 billion people.

Industry, Trade and Investment Minister Jumoke Oduwole said Nigeria has taken “concrete” steps to implement its AfCFTA commitments. Among the measures is a set of new tariff concessions designed to expand market access for Nigerian exporters. She also highlighted the launch of a dedicated air-cargo corridor to East Africa, which has already cut export costs by about 75%.

According to her, the corridor is helping exporters — especially those dealing in perishables — reach distant African markets faster and more competitively.

The surge in regional trade has generated fresh optimism among analysts who have long argued that AfCFTA could significantly boost Africa’s economic fortunes if fully executed. The recent uptick in commerce, they say, demonstrates the scale of potential gains once member states harmonize regulations, improve logistics, and expand cross-border infrastructure.

Analysts have pointed out that Africa currently trades more with Europe and Asia than with itself, largely because of tariff and non-tariff barriers, fragmented markets, and poor connectivity. Nigeria’s improvement, driven by early compliance with AfCFTA-aligned reforms, is seen as proof that removing these barriers could unlock substantial growth for businesses and governments across the continent.

Some trade experts noted that if more African countries adopt Nigeria’s approach — especially in simplifying customs procedures and reducing transport bottlenecks — the continent could see a dramatic rise in manufacturing competitiveness, agricultural exports, and value-added processing.

For Nigeria, the gains come at a crucial moment. The country has faced persistent economic challenges, including high inflation, forex volatility, and reduced oil earnings. Stronger regional trade, analysts say, could offer a new path toward diversification, helping local industries plug into regional supply chains.

The next test will be whether Nigeria can maintain the trajectory — and whether other African states can match its pace of reforms. But for now, officials and analysts agree that the latest figures are a promising indicator that AfCFTA’s long-anticipated economic benefits may be within reach once implementation deepens continent-wide.

Morgan Stanley is leaning heavily toward equities going into next year, projecting that U.S. stocks will outperform global peers in 2026 on the back of accelerating artificial intelligence investment and a policy backdrop it believes is finally aligning in favor of risk assets.

“Risk assets are primed for a strong 2026, powered by micro fundamentals, accelerating AI capex, and a favorable policy backdrop,” the bank said in a set of global economic and strategy outlook notes released Monday.

The view caps a turbulent year in global markets, shaped in no small part by President Donald Trump’s shifting tariff approach. Much of that uncertainty has eased heading into 2026, giving investors clearer visibility even as Morgan Stanley cautioned that the next 12 months still carry a wide range of possible outcomes. The U.S., it stressed, remains the central swing factor for global markets.

U.S. Outlook: AI, Earnings, and a Soft Dollar Cycle

Morgan Stanley’s baseline scenario sees the S&P 500 climbing to 7,800 by the end of 2026, implying roughly 16% upside from current levels. The bank attributes the projection to resilient earnings growth across major sectors and productivity gains tied to the rollout of AI-driven tools and infrastructure.

Small-cap stocks are expected to outperform large caps, while cyclicals should lead defensive sectors. The assessment reflects expectations of a Federal Reserve that remains dovish through much of 2026, enabling borrowing costs to stay supportive of growth.

On currencies, Morgan Stanley forecasts the dollar index sliding to 94 in the first half of next year before recovering to 99 by year-end as global growth patterns shift.

Europe: Riding the Coattails of a U.S. Upswing

The firm expects Europe to benefit from a widening U.S. recovery despite the region’s stubborn fiscal constraints and intensifying competition from China.

It raised its 2026 target for the MSCI Europe local currency index to 2,430, up from a prior forecast of 2,250. European stocks have already gained about 12.5% this year, buoyed by improved corporate earnings, easing inflation, and renewed optimism around Germany’s fiscal spending plans.

Still, Morgan Stanley noted that Europe’s structural challenges remain unresolved, making the region more dependent on U.S. momentum than in previous cycles.

Commodities: Gold Soars, Oil Anchored

The bank’s commodities outlook paints a sharply divergent landscape.

Gold is projected to hit $4,500 per ounce in 2026, reflecting expected demand for safe assets and a weaker early-year dollar. Copper is forecast at $10,600 per ton, supported by continued electrification demand and tight supply conditions.

By contrast, Brent crude is expected to hover around $60 a barrel. The brokerage anticipates a soft supply-demand balance through 2026, keeping oil prices capped even if global growth holds up.

A Wide Band of Possibilities

While the baseline is upbeat, Morgan Stanley flagged that uncertainty remains high as markets transition into a new policy and growth cycle shaped by AI, geopolitics, and post-pandemic economic rebalancing. The firm described the U.S. as the critical variable that could swing global markets either toward a sustained rally or back into volatility.

What remains clear, in its view, is that equities—not credit or government bonds—offer the most compelling opportunity next year, with artificial intelligence once again at the center of the global market story.

Dangote Cement Plc has formally launched the first tranche of its N500 billion Commercial Paper (CP) Issuance Programme, opening a N100 billion offer on Monday, 17 November 2025.

The offer, scheduled to close on Wednesday, 19 November 2025, marks a significant milestone for Nigeria’s leading cement producer, reflecting the company’s strong market position and financial stability.

The CPs are structured in two tranches: a 181-day Series 1 with a 16.10% discount rate, which implies a yield of 17.50%, and a 265-day Series 2 with a 16.70% discount rate, translating to a 19.00% yield. Minimum subscription is set at N50 million, with further subscriptions allowed in multiples of N1,000. According to the pricing documents, proceeds from the issuance will be directed toward meeting the company’s working capital needs, supporting operations across its extensive Pan-African footprint.

Dangote Cement’s financial track record over the past five years underscores its ability to deliver consistent results. Revenue surged from N1.03 trillion in 2020 to N3.58 trillion in 2024, reflecting a remarkable compound annual growth rate of 37%. Profit after tax more than doubled over the same period, climbing from N276 billion to N503.25 billion, signaling sustained operational efficiency and effective cost management.

The company’s performance through the first nine months of 2025 has been equally impressive. Revenue reached N3.15 trillion, up 22% from N2.56 trillion in the same period in 2024, while profit before tax soared 150% to N1.04 trillion from N406.4 billion. Profit after tax more than doubled to N743.3 billion from N279.1 billion in 9M 2024. Operating cash flows grew to N1.29 trillion, more than doubling the N532 billion recorded in the prior year. The company has also reduced its borrowings by 47%, from N2.5 trillion in December 2024 to N1.32 trillion, with its interest coverage ratio improving to 4.4 from 3.3, indicating a strengthened capacity to service debt.

However, Dangote Cement experienced a decline in production volume in 9 months of 2025, suggesting that pricing, rather than volume growth, has been the main driver of performance. Analysts caution that sustained reliance on pricing could present a risk if competitive or market pressures affect margins.

Rating agencies continue to recognize Dangote Cement’s strong market position and operational resilience, though with some caution. DataPro reaffirmed the company’s AA long-term and A1 short-term ratings, highlighting its strong brand, solid earnings track record, and experienced management team. At the same time, they noted risks, including low asset utilization, foreign-exchange exposure, and challenges across certain Pan-African markets.

GCR Ratings, in October 2025, downgraded the company to A+(NG) from AA+(NG), not due to deteriorating performance but because of the group-cap effect tied to its parent company, Dangote Industries Limited. GCR, however, acknowledged the company’s robust cash flows and solid earnings, forecasting continued improvement in leverage metrics by the end of 2025.

For investors, the CP issuance offers an attractive short-term investment opportunity. With strong revenue growth, surging profits, and robust operating cash flows, Dangote Cement demonstrates a capacity to deliver steady returns. The reduction in borrowings and improved leverage provide additional reassurance regarding the security of the CPs. At the same time, the yields of 17.5% for the shorter tranche and 19% for the longer tranche make the offering competitive relative to other fixed-income instruments available in Nigeria’s capital markets.

While the company’s overall fundamentals are strong, investors are mindful of certain risks. For instance, the decline in production volume highlights potential exposure to pricing pressures, which could impact future profitability. Additionally, operations in Pan-African markets carry inherent foreign-exchange and geopolitical risks that could influence earnings.

Overall, the launch of Dangote Cement’s N100 billion Commercial Paper tranche represents a significant opportunity for investors seeking short-term, high-yield instruments backed by one of Nigeria’s most financially sound and strategically positioned industrial companies. The strong cash flow generation, disciplined debt management, and proven profitability pinpoint the company’s capacity to navigate challenging market conditions while delivering competitive returns.