S&P Global Ratings has lifted Nigeria’s sovereign credit outlook to positive from stable, a move that signals growing confidence in the country’s reform drive and improving macroeconomic signals.

The agency kept Nigeria’s long- and short-term foreign and local currency ratings at ‘B-/B’, along with national scale ratings of ‘ngBBB+/ngA-2’, but noted that the country is now on firmer ground than it was a year ago.

In August 2023, S&P shifted Nigeria’s outlook from negative to stable, following earlier concerns tied to the country’s weak revenue base and limited FX liquidity. The negative outlook in May 2023 stemmed from rising fiscal deficits and declining foreign exchange inflows. The Central Bank of Nigeria later reported that the fiscal deficit for the first quarter of 2023 stood at N4 trillion.

According to S&P, the new outlook is driven by stronger external accounts, rising investor confidence, and clearer fiscal and monetary policy coordination. The agency acknowledged that the state of the economy remains fragile, with low GDP per capita, heavy debt servicing, and gaps in data quality, yet concluded that Nigeria has begun to chart a more stable path under President Bola Tinubu’s reform agenda.

Since mid-2023, a wave of policy changes has reshaped Nigeria’s macroeconomic landscape. Currency liberalization, fuel subsidy removal, renewed efforts to grow revenue, and the gradual rebound of oil output have earned global attention. The commissioning of the Dangote refinery has added a new dynamic, with expectations that it will reduce import dependence and improve the balance of payments once production volumes reach maximum.

S&P added that authorities have taken steps aimed at lifting growth and strengthening the economy’s resilience. These moves, the agency argued, are beginning to yield tangible results.

Growth projections rise as policies settle in

S&P has upgraded Nigeria’s growth forecast to an average of 3.7% from 2025 to 2028, up from its previous projection of 3.2%. Higher oil output, improved refinery activity, and rising private sector confidence are feeding into that outlook. Inflation is projected to slow steadily, reaching about 13% by 2028, helped by tighter monetary policy and a more predictable FX framework.

Foreign reserves are quoted at just under $44 billion as of October 2025, and the country’s exit from the FATF grey list has encouraged inflows from Nigerians abroad and foreign portfolio investors. The naira’s current trading framework, though still volatile, has helped restore some clarity to the FX market.

S&P, however, warned that any slippage in implementing reforms or any weakness in Nigeria’s ability to pay commercial obligations could send the outlook back to stable. Rising fiscal pressures, heavy debt service needs, or sudden shifts in foreign investor sentiment remain real possibilities. On the other hand, a rating upgrade could arrive within a year if fiscal and external gains continue to strengthen.

Nigeria’s public finances are expected to benefit from the newly enacted Nigeria Revenue Service Establishment Act and the Tax Administration Acts. These laws streamline collection processes and aim to reduce leakages.

S&P projects a general government deficit averaging 3.2% of GDP over 2025–2028. The 2027 election cycle is not expected to derail fiscal discipline significantly. Debt servicing costs will remain heavy, though more orderly liquidity management and tighter spending controls may ease some of the strain.

For the first time in years, oil production has gained some stability, rising to 1.60 million barrels per day from 1.38 mbpd in 2022. Strengthened security efforts have reduced theft and vandalism along key pipelines. The Dangote refinery has begun operations and is expected to scale toward its full 650-million-barrel annual capacity.

These gains, along with new GDP rebasing, point to a more diversified and sturdier economic structure. S&P acknowledged that non-oil sectors are expanding, although challenges remain.

Structural weaknesses keep pressure high

Nigeria continues to struggle with low income levels — GDP per capita remains around $1,200 — and high poverty. Inflation at 16.05% as of October is trending down, and is expected to drop further if the food import window opened earlier this year remains in place. The informal sector, while complicating tax collection, plays a key role in absorbing shocks during economic downturns.

S&P noted that issues tied to weak data quality, financial leakages, and limited institutional capacity will take time to correct. The agency expects the current administration to keep pushing reforms, though momentum may ease as political attention shifts toward the 2027 elections.

The agency summed up its outlook with a cautiously upbeat tone: improved confidence, more oil on the market, and stronger policy coordination could carry growth to an average of 3.7% in the 2025–2028 period.

Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, welcomed the revision and promised to implement policies that will sustain the momentum.

“We will continue to implement well-coordinated policies that restore macroeconomic stability, attract investment, and create opportunities for our citizens. The confidence shown by global ratings agencies strengthens our resolve to deliver a stronger, more dynamic, and more prosperous Nigerian economy,” he said.

The latest revision now marks the most encouraging signal from S&P since before Nigeria’s two recessions in the last decade. It shows growing belief that the country’s reforms — long avoided — are beginning to deliver early macroeconomic gains that global markets can measure.

Concerns about a swelling bubble in the artificial intelligence sector are intensifying among top technology executives, deepening anxiety within an industry whose valuations have surged at a pace many experts now say is unsustainable.

The warnings didn’t come from the usual corners of Wall Street this time. They came from the stage lights and crowded walkways of Lisbon’s Web Summit, where some of the most visible builders of artificial intelligence quietly admitted what many in the industry whisper behind closed doors. According to a CNBC report, they all agreed that something in this booming sector feels overheated.

Their warnings come as markets begin to confront the scale of capital pouring into the AI boom. Cash is chasing everything from semiconductor giants to small experimental startups, muddying the outlook for long-term revenue and raising serious questions about the reliability of current valuations.

Until recently, most alarms were being sounded in financial circles. Goldman Sachs’ David Solomon and Morgan Stanley’s Ted Pick have both flagged the possibility of a market correction as valuations across major tech firms touched historic highs.

The sharpest intervention came from Michael Burry, the famed “Big Short” investor, who accused major AI infrastructure and cloud operators—often called hyperscalers—of understating chip depreciation costs. He argued that profits at large players such as Oracle and Meta may be significantly overstated. Burry disclosed put options against Nvidia and Palantir, signaling his position that these companies are vulnerable if current assumptions collapse.

Admitting the concerns, this week, top executives who build and deploy AI, during conversations with CNBC at the Web Summit technology conference in Lisbon, acknowledged that the apprehension is no longer confined to Wall Street.

Jarek Kutylowski, chief executive of German AI firm DeepL, said valuations are running ahead of reality.

“I think the evaluations are pretty exaggerated here and there, and I think there is signs of a bubble on the horizon,” he told CNBC on Tuesday.

Picsart CEO Hovhannes Avoyan agreed. He said many young AI companies are being funded at extraordinary levels even though they have no meaningful revenue. Some are being valued on what he described as “noise and vibe revenue,” a phrase derived from “vibe coding,” which refers to using AI to create software without deep technical expertise.

The tension between optimism and caution runs straight through the industry. Executives acknowledge that AI demand is rising, and they remain confident that the technology will shape the future of work and economic productivity. But they also say current pricing carries substantial risk.

Lyft CEO David Risher put it bluntly. “Let’s be clear, we are absolutely in a financial bubble. There is no question, right? Because this is incredible, transformational technology. No one wants to be left behind.”

Risher said the transformative nature of the technology creates a gulf between long-term industrial value and the short-term financial enthusiasm that is driving valuations upward.

“The data centers and all the model creation, all of that is going to have a long, long life,” he said, arguing that real-world utility is not in doubt. “On the other hand, you know, the financial side, it’s a little risky right now.”

Kutylowski said demand for AI inside companies remains strong, with businesses increasingly aware of how automation can improve efficiency. He said companies understand AI can “do magical things,” but full adoption still lags the hype. Many firms, he noted, are “struggling in adopting” the technology. His view is that AI integration will advance, although the pace will not match some of the more exuberant predictions about 2026. DeepL’s main business is an AI translation tool, though it has now developed a broader “agent” to perform tasks for employees.

Cohere’s chief financial officer, Francois Chadwick, also said demand is real and rising, particularly in the enterprise sector, where companies are racing to understand how to incorporate AI into daily operations. His comments align with the sense that underlying interest remains robust even as valuations stretch.

Underpinning the debate is the scale of investment. A report published this week by venture capital firm Accel projected that new AI data center capacity could reach 117 gigawatts by 2030. The report estimated that this buildout could require about four trillion dollars in capital spending over the next five years. Accel calculated that about three point one trillion dollars in revenue will be needed to cover that capital outlay.

Even now, capital commitments remain aggressive. Companies such as Nvidia and OpenAI have announced billion-dollar infrastructure deals worldwide as they seek enough data center space to keep their models updated and commercially viable.

Accel partner Philippe Botteri said future revenue will be powered by three forces: larger and more powerful AI models that require substantial training capacity, the use of new AI services, and what he called the “agentic revolution in the enterprise,” a term often used to describe AI systems capable of carrying out tasks automatically.

The enormous spending has also produced a countercurrent of skepticism. Novo Capital managing partner Ben Harburg said the headline investment figures shouted by large tech companies may be inflated. He said there is growing awareness that expectations around energy use, chips, and data center needs may have been overstated.

“We hear these crazy headline numbers about how much energy is going to be needed, how many chips are going to be needed,” he told CNBC on Tuesday. He warned that enthusiasm around infrastructure is itself becoming a bubble.

Harburg said even Sam Altman “would privately admit” that the industry needs fewer chips, less capital, and less energy than earlier projections suggested.

The tension between excitement and caution is now embedded in the sector. On one side is the conviction that AI will reshape entire industries. On the other hand, there is the mounting concern that financial expectations have sprinted ahead of what the technology can achieve in the near term.

The sector’s leaders, who are often the ones urging acceleration, are now among the voices urging restraint.

Who will rescue Bitcoin as it continues its gravitational drift toward the bears of the market? This is one of those moments when you wish Bitcoin had a date on the calendar to present revenue, profits, margins, an earnings call to defend its value. But since Bitcoin cannot show a balance sheet or an income statement, the only lifeline is hope: hope that new faithfuls will buy, creating another inflection point.

Good People, the invention of money transformed humanity. The history is rich, from barter to cowries, from precious metals to minted coins. Across kingdoms and civilizations, humans have always sought efficient ways to exchange value. Then came a breakthrough in 7th-century China when the Tang dynasty invented paper money. The Song dynasty popularized it in the 11th century, and the Mongol Empire and Yuan dynasty scaled it across territories. The pursuit of frictionless exchange has been a timeless human project. Hello, electronic fund transfer of the internet era!

But Bitcoin introduces a paradox. For hodlers, it is not money, it is an asset class. Yet it is spoken of as a currency. And because it behaves more like an asset than a medium of exchange, it suffers: it must appreciate simply because people believe it should appreciate.

Imagine if Bitcoin had an earnings call tomorrow, standing before the market to defend its valuation. That would change the game. As money, used to buy, exchange, transfer value, Bitcoin is a remarkable innovation. As an asset class expected to produce returns without a business engine behind it, the logic becomes fragile.

Use Bitcoin as money and it delivers. Ask it to behave like a company, and it collapses under expectations it was never designed to meet. I like stablecoins because they strip away the hodling spirit, removing the speculative pressure and leaving a powerful utility: the ability to cut transaction costs dramatically. That is transformative.

Let us scale that utility across Africa. Let us move away from the mindset of buying coins simply because we expect them to rise. Instead, let us deploy digital tools to improve operations, eliminate cross-border frictions, and unlock abundance across our economies.