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Berkshire Hathaway’s Rare Leap Into Big Tech Sends Alphabet to a Record High

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Berkshire Hathaway made a move that instantly reshaped market sentiment on Monday, taking a multibillion-dollar position in Alphabet and sending the Google parent’s shares up nearly 6% to a new record.

The purchase marks Berkshire’s first major entry into a large technology company built around artificial intelligence, a striking shift for a conglomerate long known for steering clear of Silicon Valley.

Filings released on Friday showed that Berkshire acquired 17.85 million Alphabet shares, valued at about $4.93 billion as of the previous session, according to Reuters. The investment is one of the last major additions to the portfolio under Warren Buffett before he hands the CEO role to Greg Abel at the end of 2025. It also breaks from Berkshire’s long-running caution toward high-growth tech firms, with Apple remaining the only major outlier Buffett had previously embraced because he saw it more as a consumer brand than a technology bet.

“The stake purchase of a tech company may represent a different type of mentality at Berkshire, though it’s not a total departure from its value-investing model,” Reuters quoted Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, as saying.

The market’s reaction was swift. Alphabet was on track to gain roughly $180 billion in market value if the rally held through close, underscoring how powerful Berkshire’s endorsement remains. Alphabet also became one of the top-three trending names on Stocktwits as retail traders piled in.

The backing arrives at a moment when enthusiasm around artificial intelligence has started to cool. Business leaders and analysts have raised concerns about lofty valuations across tech, arguing that share prices have run ahead of earnings and that the timeline for returns on enormous data-center spending is still uncertain. The Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF, which tracks giants such as Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet, has been mostly flat since September after outperforming the broader market for much of the year.

Alphabet, however, has stood apart. The stock has climbed nearly 14% in the December quarter and is up 46% so far this year, the strongest performance among the Magnificent Seven. Its valuation has also remained comparatively moderate, trading near twenty-five times forward earnings versus roughly twenty-nine for Microsoft and close to thirty for Nvidia, based on LSEG data.

“Alphabet fits the value-investing theme better than some of the other names that are leading the AI charge right now,” Sosnick said.

Analysts say the company’s positioning in artificial intelligence is a key reason. Google has been accelerating infrastructure investments, rolling out AI-enhanced search tools, and using its immense advertising business to support a broad push into data-center expansion. CFRA analyst Angel Zino said the Berkshire purchase “validates Google’s strong fundamentals and provides Berkshire exposure to a leading AI provider through Google Cloud and Gemini expansion,” adding that Alphabet’s financial strength and valuation likely played a major role in the decision.

Alphabet’s most recent earnings report confirmed that AI investments are reshaping the company’s core businesses. Google Cloud, once trailing its larger rivals, has begun emerging as a major growth engine, driving a wave of investor interest over the past month.

There is also a personal angle tied to Berkshire’s leadership. Buffett and the late Charlie Munger have previously spoken about missing out on Google in its early years, even though Berkshire’s subsidiaries had been major users of its advertising platform. The timing of the Alphabet purchase gives the conglomerate long-sought exposure to a company both men had openly admired but never owned.

It is still unclear whether the investment was made directly by Buffett, by portfolio managers Todd Combs or Ted Weschler, or by Abel. Buffett generally oversees the largest positions, but Berkshire has not clarified the decision-maker.

The move comes as Berkshire continues to build an enormous cash reserve. The firm remained a net seller of equities in the September quarter, cutting back on Apple and Bank of America and pushing its cash pile to a record $381.7 billion. Many investors have interpreted the buildup as a sign that Buffett views valuations across the wider market as stretched. Even with the Alphabet purchase, financial services still make up 36.6% of Berkshire’s equity portfolio, based on Morningstar’s latest tally.

However, the decision to plunge into Alphabet signals a rare moment when valuation discipline, AI leadership, and long-term durability aligned with Berkshire’s investment instincts. And in an environment where investors have become increasingly cautious about AI-driven exuberance, the move from Omaha is seen as an indication that Alphabet continues to stand out not as a technology leader.

Getting Started in Forex Trading: A Comprehensive Guide 

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The foreign exchange market, commonly known as Forex or FX, represents the world’s largest and most liquid financial market. With a daily trading volume exceeding $7 trillion, it dwarfs all other financial markets combined. For newcomers, the prospect of entering this dynamic marketplace can seem both exciting and overwhelming. This comprehensive guide will walk you through the essential steps to begin your Forex trading journey with confidence and proper preparation.

Understanding the Forex Market

Before diving into trading, it’s crucial to understand what Forex actually is. The Forex market is a decentralized global marketplace where currencies are traded against one another. Unlike stock exchanges that have physical locations, Forex operates 24 hours a day, five days a week, through an electronic network of banks, corporations, institutional investors, and individual traders worldwide.

Currency pairs form the foundation of Forex trading. When you trade Forex, you’re simultaneously buying one currency while selling another. For example, in the EUR/USD pair, the euro is the base currency and the US dollar is the quote currency. If you believe the euro will strengthen against the dollar, you buy the pair. If you think it will weaken, you sell it.

The major currency pairs include EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/CHF. These pairs typically offer the tightest spreads and highest liquidity, making them ideal for beginners. As you gain experience, you can explore minor pairs and exotic currency combinations that may offer different trading opportunities.

Building Your Foundation: Education Comes First

The most critical mistake new traders make is rushing into live trading without adequate preparation. Successful Forex trading requires a solid understanding of market mechanics, technical and fundamental analysis, risk management, and trading psychology. Fortunately, numerous educational resources are available to help you build this foundation.

Start by learning the basic terminology. Terms like pips, lots, leverage, margin, spreads, and stop-loss orders are fundamental to understanding how Forex works. A pip, for instance, represents the smallest price movement in a currency pair, typically the fourth decimal place for most pairs. Understanding these concepts will help you communicate effectively in the trading community and comprehend market analysis.

Technical analysis involves studying price charts and using indicators to identify potential trading opportunities. Common tools include moving averages, relative strength index (RSI), Fibonacci retracements, and support and resistance levels. Each indicator offers different insights into market momentum, trends, and potential reversal points.

Fundamental analysis, on the other hand, focuses on economic factors that influence currency values. Interest rates, inflation data, employment figures, GDP growth, and geopolitical events all play significant roles in currency movements. Central bank decisions, particularly from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan, can trigger substantial market volatility.

Choosing the Right Broker

Selecting a reputable broker is one of the most important decisions you’ll make as a Forex trader. Your broker serves as your gateway to the market, so their reliability, trading conditions, and regulatory status are paramount. When evaluating brokers, consider several key factors.

Regulatory compliance should be your top priority. Reputable brokers are regulated by recognized financial authorities such as the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US, or the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC). Regulation provides a layer of protection for your funds and ensures the broker operates within established guidelines.

Trading costs vary significantly between brokers. Look at spreads, commissions, and any other fees that might apply to your trading. Some brokers offer tight spreads on major pairs but charge higher commissions, while others incorporate costs into wider spreads. Calculate the total cost per trade to make accurate comparisons.

The trading platform is where you’ll spend most of your time, so it should be intuitive, stable, and feature-rich. MetaTrader 4 and MetaTrader 5 are industry standards, offering comprehensive charting tools, technical indicators, and automated trading capabilities. Some brokers, like Dukascopy, provide proprietary platforms with unique features and competitive trading conditions that might suit your specific needs.

Customer support quality can make a significant difference, especially when technical issues arise during active trading. Test the broker’s support channels before opening an account to ensure they’re responsive and helpful.

The Power of Practice: Demo Trading

One of the greatest advantages modern Forex traders have is the ability to practice without risking real money. A forex demo account replicates live trading conditions using virtual funds, allowing you to test strategies, familiarize yourself with the trading platform, and develop your skills in a risk-free environment.

Demo accounts typically offer the same features as live accounts, including real-time price feeds, full access to technical indicators, and the ability to place all types of orders. This makes them invaluable for beginners who need to understand how different order types work, from market orders to limit orders, stop-loss orders, and trailing stops.

Spend at least several weeks trading on a demo account before considering live trading. During this period, focus on developing a trading strategy and testing it under various market conditions. Keep a trading journal documenting every trade you make, including your reasoning for entering and exiting positions, the outcome, and lessons learned.

However, remember that demo trading has limitations. The psychological pressure of risking real money is absent, which can lead to overconfidence or reckless behavior that you wouldn’t exhibit with actual funds at stake. Additionally, demo accounts sometimes offer better execution speeds and fill rates than live accounts, creating unrealistic expectations.

Developing Your Trading Strategy

A well-defined trading strategy is essential for long-term success in Forex. Your strategy should specify when you’ll enter and exit trades, how much you’ll risk per trade, and what market conditions favor your approach. There are several popular trading styles to consider.

Day trading involves opening and closing positions within a single trading day, avoiding overnight exposure. Day traders typically make multiple trades daily, capitalizing on small price movements. This style requires significant time commitment and quick decision-making.

Swing trading targets larger price movements over several days or weeks. Swing traders aim to catch substantial portions of price trends while holding positions through minor fluctuations. This approach requires less time than day trading but still demands regular market monitoring.

Position trading takes a long-term view, with traders holding positions for weeks, months, or even years. This style relies heavily on fundamental analysis and requires patience and conviction in your market outlook.

Scalping involves making dozens or hundreds of trades per day, targeting tiny price movements. Scalpers need excellent execution speeds, tight spreads, and intense concentration. This demanding style isn’t suitable for most beginners.

Choose a style that matches your personality, available time, and risk tolerance. A full-time professional might successfully day trade, while someone with a regular job might find swing trading more practical.

Risk Management: Your Safety Net

Proper risk management separates successful traders from those who blow up their accounts. The golden rule is never to risk more than you can afford to lose. Most professional traders risk only 1-2% of their trading capital on any single trade. This conservative approach ensures that a string of losses won’t devastate your account.

Stop-loss orders are essential risk management tools. These orders automatically close your position when the market moves against you by a specified amount, limiting your potential loss. Always use stop-losses, and never move them further away from your entry point to give a losing trade “more room.”

Position sizing determines how much of a currency pair you buy or sell. Proper position sizing ensures that your predetermined risk percentage translates into an appropriate lot size. Many beginners make the mistake of trading too large, exposing themselves to excessive risk.

Leverage allows you to control large positions with relatively small capital, but it’s a double-edged sword that amplifies both profits and losses. While Forex brokers may offer leverage of 50:1, 100:1, or even higher, using maximum leverage is extremely risky for inexperienced traders. Start with low leverage ratios until you’ve proven your trading strategy is consistently profitable.

Managing Your Trading Psychology

Trading psychology often determines whether traders succeed or fail. Emotions like fear, greed, hope, and regret can cloud judgment and lead to impulsive decisions. Developing emotional discipline is as important as mastering technical analysis.

Fear can cause you to exit winning trades too early or prevent you from taking valid setups. Greed might tempt you to overtrade or risk too much on a single position. Hope can keep you in losing trades far longer than your plan dictates, while regret over missed opportunities can lead to revenge trading.

Establish a pre-trading routine that puts you in the right mental state. Review your trading plan, check economic calendars for important news releases, and analyze current market conditions objectively. Treat trading as a business, not gambling or entertainment.

Accept that losses are part of trading. No strategy wins 100% of the time, and even the best traders experience losing streaks. What matters is your overall performance over many trades, not the outcome of any single position. Focus on executing your strategy correctly rather than obsessing over profits and losses.

Starting with Real Money

When you’ve demonstrated consistent profitability on your demo account and feel confident in your strategy, you can consider live trading. However, start small. Open an account with the minimum deposit and trade micro or mini lots until you adjust to the psychological differences between demo and live trading.

The transition to real money often reveals emotional vulnerabilities that weren’t apparent during demo trading. You might find yourself hesitating on valid setups, exiting winners prematurely, or letting losses run. These reactions are normal, but you must work through them to succeed.

Continue keeping your trading journal with even greater discipline. Review your trades regularly to identify patterns in both your winning and losing positions. Are you better at trend-following or counter-trend trades? Do you perform better during specific market sessions? This self-awareness helps refine your approach.

Continuous Learning and Adaptation

The Forex market constantly evolves, and successful traders commit to lifelong learning. Market conditions change, new trading tools emerge, and economic landscapes shift. Stay informed about global economic developments, follow reputable trading educators, and engage with the trading community.

However, be selective about whose advice you follow. The internet is full of self-proclaimed experts offering get-rich-quick schemes. Stick with established educational resources, regulated brokers, and traders with verifiable track records.

Consider specializing in a few currency pairs rather than trying to trade everything. Deep knowledge of how specific pairs behave under various conditions gives you an edge. Some traders become EUR/USD specialists, while others focus on commodity currencies like AUD or CAD.

Conclusion

Starting your Forex trading journey requires patience, discipline, and dedication to continuous learning. Begin with thorough education, practice extensively on a demo account, develop a robust trading strategy with strict risk management rules, and start small when transitioning to live trading. Remember that Forex trading is not a get-rich-quick scheme but a skill that takes time to master.

Success in Forex comes from making consistent, well-planned decisions over time, not from seeking home runs on individual trades. Focus on protecting your capital, managing risk, and following your trading plan regardless of emotional impulses. With the right approach, mindset, and commitment to improvement, you can work toward becoming a consistently profitable Forex trader.

The journey won’t be easy, and there will be setbacks along the way. However, with persistence and the right foundation, you can navigate the challenges and potentially achieve your trading goals in the world’s largest financial market.

David Hay’s High-Value Research, Embraces the Intuition of Stock Performance

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David Hay of Haymarket Capital/David Hay Research has highlighted this counter-intuitive but well-documented phenomenon. Key points from the data primarily based on research covering ~1990–2022, with similar patterns persisting in many later studies.

Stocks that are deleted from the S&P 500 the “black line” in his chart — typically because they no longer meet size, liquidity, or profitability criteria — have historically outperformed the S&P 500 index itself by roughly +3% to +5% per year on average after deletion.

Over the 32-year period he references 1990–2022, this translated into ~400–500% cumulative outperformance versus just staying in the index. Forced selling distortion: When a stock is removed from the S&P 500, index funds and ETFs hundreds of billions of dollars must sell it immediately, regardless of fundamentals.

This creates temporary downward pressure and often leaves the stock undervalued. Mean reversion / value effect: Many deleted stocks are “fallen angels” — former large-cap growth darlings that have underperformed and become relatively cheap low P/E, high dividend yield, etc.. Value and quality factors tend to rebound over time.

After deletion, the average market cap drops dramatically often from >$10–20 bn to <$5 bn. Smaller stocks have historically outperformed larger ones over long periods. The S&P 500 is constantly pruning its weakest members and adding new winners. So by construction it looks better than it actually is for a buy-and-hold investor in the “average” constituent.

The deleted stocks are the ones that got kicked out, yet ironically many recover. Real-world performance approximate, from various studies: 1-year average excess return after deletion: +6–12%. 3-year average excess return: +3–5% annualized.

Long-term (5–10 years): still positive but narrower. A mechanical strategy of buying every S&P 500 deletion equally or float-weighted and holding for 1–3 years has beaten the S&P 500 by 300–600 bps annualized in most backtests since the 1980s, with higher volatility and drawdowns.

Not every deleted stock recovers some go to zero — think Sears, Toys“R”Us, etc. Transaction costs, liquidity risk, and tax implications reduce real-world returns. The edge has narrowed in recent years as more investors quant funds, factor ETFs have started exploiting it.

But the core observation remains valid and is one of the cleaner examples of index mechanics creating exploitable inefficiencies. David Hay is correct: over the long run, the “reject pile” of the S&P 500 has actually been a better place to fish than the index itself.

The Russell 2000 has shown signs of resurgence, with year-to-date (YTD) gains of approximately 9.85–10.45% (based on ETF trackers like IWM and VRTIX), outpacing its historical average but trailing the S&P 500’s stronger tech-led rally.

Over the past six months, it has gained ~17%, matching the S&P 500 more closely, amid expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a shift toward “animal spirits” in the market.

The Russell 2000’s returns are more volatile than the S&P 500’s, with larger drawdowns but potential for outsized gains during rotations. Since 1979, the two indices have had a high correlation ~0.8 on average, but divergences highlight small-cap cycles.

Small caps have outperformed large caps about two-thirds of the time since 1927, per long-term data, though the edge has been negative since 2019 due to the “Magnificent 7” tech dominance.

Russell 2000 beating S&P 500 by notable margins: 1979–1983: +77–80% relative gain amid double-dip recessions, high inflation, and early 1980s recovery. 1990–1994: +49.6% during the 1990–1991 recession and early expansion.

1999–2006: +99% through the dot-com bust 2000–2002 recession and initial 2003–2007 expansion. July 2024: +10 percentage points best monthly relative gain since Feb. 2000, driven by rate cut bets.

Post-2024 Election Cycles: Historically +6–12% relative in the 6–12 months following U.S. elections, due to pro-domestic policies. 1983–1990: -91.4% relative S&P dominated in 1980s expansion with high real rates.

1994–1999: -94.5% amid late-1990s boom and rising rates. 2019–2024: Consistent lag (e.g., -6.8% over 3 years ending 2024), as S&P benefited from ~30% tech weighting vs. Russell’s ~4%.

The S&P SmallCap 600 a profitability-filtered small-cap index has outperformed the Russell 2000 in 14 of 21 years since 1994, highlighting how the Russell includes more unprofitable “junk” stocks that drag returns. Small-cap rallies like the current one are often short-lived but explosive.

~90% of Russell 2000 revenues are domestic, making it a pure U.S. economy bet. It thrives in expansions or post-recession rebounds when risk appetite rises, as smaller firms are nimbler and benefit from catch-up growth.

Small caps are highly leveraged ~50% of debt is short-term/floating rate, so Fed easing reduces refinancing costs more than for large caps. Historically, the first rate cut in a cycle boosts small caps by 5–10% relative to large caps. With markets pricing ~90% odds of a September 2025 cut, this supports further gains.

Russell 2000 trades at a discount (e.g., P/B in bottom decile since 1990; higher dividend yields). After lagging (e.g., due to 671/2,000 unprofitable firms vs. 25/500 in S&P), rotations into “cheap cyclicals” financials, industrials, healthcare—~48% of index drive rebounds.

Less tech exposure ~15–17% vs. S&P’s 30% means outperformance when cyclicals lead like the post-vaccine yield rises in 2020–2021. Value and equal-weight tilts amplify this. +11% in five days in July 2024) reflect “greed” and broad participation, but overbought signals (RSI >79) often lead to pullbacks.

The Russell 2000 hit 2,500 for the first time in October 2025, up ~17% in six months, but trails the S&P 500 YTD due to AI/tech persistence. Bank of America sees continued outperformance through September 2025 absent tariff shocks, tied to earnings recovery Q2 profits beat expectations, ending a “profits recession.

However, October seasonality is weak for small caps, and speculation risks a correction. Compared to the S&P SmallCap 600 +11% in six months, the Russell’s 9% edge signals elevated “animal spirits” but potential froth. If U.S. growth outpaces global peers and rates fall, small caps could extend gains historical post-election edge + recovery regime.

Uniswap’s Continuous Clearing Auctions (CCA) is A New Era for Token Launches

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Uniswap, the leading decentralized exchange (DEX), recently introduced Continuous Clearing Auctions (CCA) as a permissionless, on-chain protocol designed to revolutionize how new tokens launch and bootstrap liquidity on Uniswap v4.

Announced on November 13, 2025, CCA aims to replace opaque, off-chain token distributions with a transparent, fair mechanism that promotes gradual price discovery and immediate liquidity seeding. This addresses longstanding DeFi pain points like information asymmetry, sniping by bots, post-launch volatility, and privileged access for insiders.

Traditional token launches often involve private sales, OTC deals, or rushed listings that favor a small group of investors, leading to unfair pricing and thin liquidity. CCA flips this by running everything on-chain: bidding, pricing, settlement, and liquidity provision. It’s the first in a series of tools Uniswap is building to help projects launch more equitably on v4, which emphasizes customization and efficiency.

No gatekeepers or hidden deals—everything is verifiable on the blockchain. Tokens are distributed gradually over time, encouraging early, organic participation rather than last-second frenzy. Limits sniping bot-driven front-running and volatility by clearing auctions block-by-block, helping prices converge to a “fair” market value.

At auction end, proceeds automatically create a Uniswap v4 pool at the final clearing price, enabling active trading from day one. Projects kick off by setting simple parameters: the token amount to auction, a floor starting price, and duration (e.g., spanning multiple Ethereum blocks).

The auction then unfolds continuously: Users submit bids specifying a maximum price and total spend. Bids are non-withdrawable while “in range” but can be adjusted or multiplied during the auction. Each bid auto-splits across remaining blocks for even exposure.

Block-by-Block Clearing: For each Ethereum block, the protocol calculates a single clearing price—the highest price where all tokens allocated to that block can sell. Higher bids fill first. Partial fills occur at the clearing price if demand exceeds supply.

Unfilled bids carry over or adjust based on rules. Prices can stay flat or rise as competition increases but never drop mid-auction, curbing dumps. Filled bids settle instantly. At the end, unsold tokens return to the project, and all proceeds mint a v4 liquidity pool paired with ETH or stablecoins at the final price.

This “seeds” deep liquidity, reducing slippage for early traders. Customizations are possible, like tranche-based releases staggered auctions or integrations with tools such as ZK Passport for privacy-preserving verification (e.g., via Aztec Network).

Aztec Network was the first to use CCA for its $AZTEC token sale, allocating early access to testnet contributors while opening the rest publicly. This marks a revival of ICO-style launches but with DeFi’s decentralized twist—transparent and resistant to manipulation.

The protocol’s smart contract is already live on mainnet, free for any project to deploy. Uniswap Labs founder Hayden Adams highlighted it as a step toward making DeFi the “default financial interface.” Community buzz on X emphasizes its potential to democratize launches, with discussions around reduced whale advantages and better incentives for builders.

CCA is gaining traction in DeFi circles, potentially accelerating v4 adoption. If you’re a project builder, check the docs at cca.uniswap.org to experiment. For investors, watch for upcoming auctions to spot fair-entry opportunities. This could reshape how tokenized assets enter the market—more permissionless, more efficient, and truly on-chain.

A Look At University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment

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This month’s preliminary reading from the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers is a gut punch, clocking in at 50.3, down 6.2% from October’s 53.6 and a whopping 29.9% below last November’s level.

It’s the second-lowest on record since the survey kicked off in 1960, edging just above the all-time low of 50.0 hit in June 2022 amid peak inflation chaos. The “current economic conditions” sub-index cratered to a record low of 52.3 down 10.8% from last month, driven by a 17% plunge in views on personal finances, while the “consumer expectations” index slipped to 49.0, its weakest in six months.

This isn’t just a blip; it’s widespread gloom cutting across ages, incomes, and even political lines—everyone’s feeling the squeeze except the stock-market heavyweights, whose sentiment actually rose 11% thanks to near-record S&P highs.

Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked up to 4.7% from 4.6%, but long-run ones eased slightly to 3.6%, hinting at some guarded optimism on prices stabilizing eventually. A federal government shutdown that’s dragged on for over a month, sparking fears of broader economic fallout—like delayed payments, furloughs, and a hit to growth.

Joanne Hsu, the survey director, nailed it: “Consumers are now expressing worries about potential negative consequences for the economy.” Layer on sticky inflation still biting at essentials, high borrowing costs, and job jitters unemployment ticked to 4.4% in October, and it’s no wonder folks are battening down the hatches.

Consumer spending drives ~70% of U.S. GDP, so this vibe check could throttle holiday retail and Q4 momentum if it lingers. While Main Street’s hunkered down paycheck-to-paycheck households are livid about inequality and “booming” markets that feel rigged.

Wall Street’s partying: S&P 500 near all-time highs, GDP chugging at 3.8% annualized in Q2, and private payrolls adding 42,000 jobs last month better than feared, but still a slowdown. It’s a classic disconnect—asset owners thrive on low cash holdings fund managers at 3.5-3.8%, lowest in 15 years and AI hype.

The average American sees grocery bills up 20% since 2021 and shutdown uncertainty as recession signals. If the “bubble” you’re eyeing is stocks or maybe housing/commercial real estate, this sentiment crater is a flashing yellow light.

Perceptions are already recessionary, worse than 2008 in spots, yet markets shrug it off. History says sentiment leads spending by 3-6 months, so watch December’s final read out Nov 21 and jobs data for cracks.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is a key monthly gauge of U.S. consumer attitudes toward the economy, based on surveys of about 3,000 households. It breaks down into two main components.

Present Situation Index (PSI): Measures views on current business/labor conditions and personal finances. Gauges short-term outlooks for income, business, and jobs readings below 80 often signal recession risks.

Unlike the University of Michigan’s sentiment index which hit a near-record low of 50.3 in preliminary November data, as we discussed, the CCI tends to be more volatile and employment-focused. It’s released mid-month preliminary around the 10th-15th.

We’re still awaiting the official November 2025 release—expected on Tuesday, November 25 delayed slightly due to the ongoing federal government shutdown impacting data collection. The cutoff for the survey was likely around November 10-12, so it may capture some early-month shutdown effects.

The most recent data is from October 2025, released on October 29. 94.6 down 1.0 point from September’s upwardly revised 95.6—a six-month low, in the 41st percentile historically. Present Situation Index: 129.3 up 1.8 points—modest improvement, but still below 2025 averages amid sticky inflation.

Expectations Index: 71.5 down 2.9 points—below the recession-warning threshold of 80 for the ninth straight month since February 2025, reflecting pessimism on future jobs and growth. This sideways slide marks the third consecutive monthly decline, with consumers citing inflation especially at the pump and groceries, tariff uncertainties, and the government shutdown as top drags.

Recession fears eased slightly fewer expect one “very likely” in the next year, but more now believe we’re already in one—for the third month running. Holiday spending plans are muted: While some started early to dodge potential tariffs, most intend to shop October-December.

With November peaking—but overall budgets are tighter, especially for lower-income households <$75K and younger folks, where confidence dropped sharply. Both indices show deteriorating vibes, but Michigan’s plunge is steeper—highlighting the “bubble” disconnect you mentioned strong markets vs. Main Street pain.

With the shutdown now in its second month, November’s CCI could dip further if furloughs and delayed payments amplify gloom—potentially crimping holiday retail consumer spending = ~70% of GDP. Yet, like Michigan, it’s a perception gap: Unemployment at 4.4%, Q3 GDP at 2.8% annualized, and S&P highs mask the squeeze for non-asset owners.

Economists like Stephanie Guichard note: “Confidence is stuck in a narrow range since June,” but a shutdown resolution could spark a rebound. If not, expect Q4 growth to cool toward 1.5-2%.Watch for the November drop on the 25th—I’ll keep an eye out.