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Home Blog Page 189

Bitcoin Bull Score Hits Zero, First Time Since 2022 Bear Market

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The Bitcoin Bull Score is a composite on-chain metric developed by CryptoQuant, ranging from 0 to 10. It aggregates 10 key indicators to gauge Bitcoin’s bullish momentum, including: MVRV Ratio— Market Value to Realized Value, measuring investor profitability.

ETF flows (institutional inflows/outflows). Stablecoin liquidity on the Bitcoin network. Demand growth; Trader margins, and others like Coinbase premium and long-term holder (LTH) behavior.

A score below 40 typically signals bearish conditions, while above 60 indicates a bull market. At 0, it reflects extreme weakness—all components are below their trends—often marking capitulation or distribution phases.

As of early November 2025, the Bull Score plunged to 0, the first time since January 2022 or June 2022 per some reports, right before the last major bear market that saw Bitcoin drop from $69,000 to under $16,000.

This drop coincides with Bitcoin slipping below $100,000 after months of consolidation near six figures, breaking the 365-day moving average ($102,000)—a key support level that confirmed the 2022 bear start.

Investors are holding less unrealized profit or entering losses, with ~1/3 of circulating BTC now underwater. Weak Inflows: ETF and corporate buying has slowed; outflows persist. LTH Distribution: Long-term holders continue selling, not re-accumulating.

Stablecoin supply on Bitcoin networks contracted sharply over the past month. Despite the score’s extremity, Bitcoin remains at historically high prices (~$100K), unlike the 2022 capitulation from peak levels. Analysts describe this as a “late-bull to early-bear transition” rather than full-blown collapse.

Hit 0 after bull consolidation. Potential extended consolidation or deeper correction to $72K–$91K in 1–2 months. Still near ATHs; no leverage bubble, but no new demand.

Historically, a 0 reading has signaled either bottoms (e.g., 2020) or late-cycle tops before reversals. CryptoQuant warns of “prolonged consolidation” without quick rebounds in ETF inflows, liquidity, and LTH buying.

Contrarians on X argue it’s “fear manipulation” for market makers to accumulate, potentially setting up a reversal. Recent posts echo the bearish tilt but mix caution with opportunism: Many highlight the 2022 parallel, warning of volatility and possible $72K tests.

Bullish takes: “This is the reset—buy the fear” or “Local bottom in bull cycle, not breakdown.” Watch for ETF data and LTH behavior; no fresh inflows = more downside risk.

MVRV stands for Market Value to Realized Value. It is an on-chain valuation metric for Bitcoin and other UTXO-based cryptocurrencies that compares Market Value (MV) ÷ Realized Value (RV). The result is a unitless ratio that tells you how over- or undervalued Bitcoin is relative to the average price at which all coins last moved on-chain.

Extreme Overvaluation Euphoria; most holders in high unrealized profit ? high selling pressure risk. Historically seen at cycle tops (e.g., Dec 2017: ~9, Nov 2021: ~4.5). Bullish / Overvalued: Strong bull market; profits are high but not extreme.

Balanced; price ? average cost basis. Healthy accumulation phase. Most holders in loss ? selling exhaustion, potential cycle bottoms (e.g., Dec 2018: 0.8, Mar 2020: 0.85). Extreme fear; historic buying opportunities.

MVRV peaks are lower in recent cycles due to institutional adoption, lost coins, and higher realized cap. High MVRV ? most holders can sell at profit ? increases supply. Low MVRV ? holders refuse to sell at loss ? reduces supply ? supports price.

On-Chain Transparency: Unlike market cap, RV is anchored in actual transaction data. ~20–25% of BTC is lost forever ? inflates Realized Value ? underestimates overvaluation.
Exchange Withdrawals. Coins moved to cold storage don’t update RV ? lags behind HODLing.

MVRV can stay high/low for months. Best used with momentum, volume, or funding rates. Macro influence ignores fiat liquidity, interest rates, geopolitics. Profit-taking phase, but not yet capitulation. ? Aligns with Bull Score = 0, signaling weakening demand, not collapse.

MVRV tells you whether Bitcoin is trading above or below the average price investors paid for their coins — high MVRV = profit-taking risk, low MVRV = accumulation opportunity.

Overall, this isn’t a guaranteed bear market yet—it’s a wake-up call for demand. If inflows return, it could be a mid-cycle shakeout; otherwise, brace for chop.

Ghana Moves Toward Comprehensive Regulation of Virtual Assets and Service Providers

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The Bank of Ghana (BoG) has published a draft policy paper outlining how the country intends to regulate virtual assets and virtual asset service providers (VASPs), marking a significant step toward formal oversight of digital currencies and blockchain-based finance.

The document, titled “Ghana’s Policy Position on Virtual Assets and Service Providers,” proposes a principle-driven and risk-based framework that seeks to encourage innovation while safeguarding monetary stability, consumer interests, and national security.

According to the Bank of Ghana, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and the Financial Intelligence Centre (FIC), virtual assets can no longer exist outside regulatory oversight. Over the past 15 years, Ghana’s virtual asset ecosystem has expanded substantially, with more than three million users recorded nationwide.

The 2024 National Anti-Money Laundering, Countering the Financing of Terrorism and Proliferation Financing (AML/CFT/CPF) Risk Assessment noted that VAs are increasingly integrated into banking and securities sectors. The assessment also found that VASPs currently offer services such as exchange, wallet management, custody, and transfer with minimal regulatory control. Due to the nature of the technology, these services present heightened risks of money laundering and terrorist financing.

A mandatory registration exercise held in July 2025 recorded over 100 VASPs operating in and from Ghana. These firms provide payments, exchange services, brokerage, wallet solutions, and investment advisory services. This exercise established a baseline understanding of the market and served as groundwork for future regulatory enforcement.

The expanding role of virtual assets has raised concerns about market integrity, consumer protection, anti-money laundering safeguards, and broader financial stability. In response, the Bank of Ghana previously issued public advisories in 2018 and 2022 clarifying that virtual assets are not legal tender and remain outside the Payment Systems Act, 2019.

The SEC also warned the public in 2019 against trading or investing in virtual assets. At one point, regulated financial institutions were prohibited from enabling virtual asset transactions. However, with the publication of Draft Guidelines on Virtual Assets in August 2024, the Bank signaled a more flexible policy shift toward establishing a comprehensive regulatory framework.

Although a dedicated legal framework is not yet in place, Ghana has already taken steps to assess risks and register active VASPs, positioning the country for phased regulation. The policy paper outlines six guiding principles:

  1. Regulation of VASPs: Virtual asset service providers will fall under formal regulatory authority.

  2. Activity-Based Oversight: Regulation will focus on specific activities rather than technology itself, maintaining a neutral stance that fosters responsible innovation.

  3. Risk-Based Regulation: Regulatory responses will be proportional to the level of systemic and financial risk associated with each virtual asset use case.

  4. Inter-Agency Collaboration: The Bank, SEC, FIC, CSA, and Data Protection Commission will work together to align policy, compliance, and enforcement.

  5. Continual Monitoring: Ghana will track international best practices and adapt regulation in response to global and domestic developments.

  6. Improved Public Literacy: Consumer education will be prioritized to reduce vulnerability to fraud, misinformation, and high-risk financial behavior.

The draft policy underscores that the regulation of virtual assets must evolve alongside the fast-changing digital finance landscape. Continuous consultation with industry players, regulators, and the public will be essential to ensure the framework remains relevant, effective, and supportive of innovation.

Ghana’s move signals a shift from caution to structured oversight, balancing economic opportunity with necessary safeguards to protect the financial system and its participants. Notably, this development places the West african country among a growing group of African nations, including South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria and Mauritius, which have taken steps to regulate digital asset markets into regulated financial systems.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Rules Out Blackwell Chip Sales to China as U.S.-China Tech Rift Deepens

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Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang has ruled out any immediate possibility of selling the company’s flagship Blackwell AI chips to China, saying there are “no active discussions” to ease U.S. export restrictions.

His remarks highlight how Washington’s tightening curbs on advanced chip sales have upended one of Nvidia’s most lucrative markets, deepening the fracture between the world’s two largest economies over control of artificial intelligence and semiconductor technology.

Speaking on Friday in Tainan, Taiwan, where he was attending chipmaking partner TSMC’s sports day, Huang said there was no change in Nvidia’s position despite speculation that a diplomatic breakthrough between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping could result in a limited deal allowing toned-down versions of the Blackwell chips to enter China.

“Currently, we are not planning to ship anything to China,” Huang said. “It’s up to China when they would like Nvidia products to go back to serve the Chinese market. I look forward to them changing their policy.”

The Blackwell series, Nvidia’s latest and most advanced line of AI chips, powers large-scale machine learning models and data centers that drive everything from generative AI to robotics and cloud computing. But the technology has been at the center of Washington’s campaign to curb China’s access to cutting-edge semiconductors that could be repurposed for military or surveillance use.

Under a string of export control measures first introduced in 2022 and expanded in 2023, the U.S. Commerce Department banned Nvidia and other chipmakers from selling their highest-end GPUs — including the A100, H100, and now Blackwell — to Chinese firms. The restrictions have forced Nvidia to develop lower-spec alternatives like the H20 chip, which comply with export limits but fall short of the performance Chinese companies seek for large-scale AI training.

Huang acknowledged the consequences of the faceoff, saying, “Our market share in China for advanced AI chips is zero.” He said the U.S. government’s limited exemptions have done little to change the reality on the ground, as Chinese firms are now pouring resources into domestic chip development to reduce dependence on American suppliers.

The policy shift has cost Nvidia billions in potential revenue. Before the export bans, China accounted for roughly one-fifth of Nvidia’s total sales, with its GPUs powering data centers for Chinese tech giants like Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu. But those firms are now turning to local alternatives such as Huawei’s Ascend series, which Beijing has heavily subsidized as part of its broader “self-reliance” drive in semiconductor technology.

Analysts say the outcome reflects a broader tech and trade standoff between Beijing and Washington that has transformed from a tariff dispute into a race for technological dominance. While tariffs and supply chain realignments defined the early stages of the trade war, the current conflict centers on who controls the infrastructure of the AI age — chips, data, and algorithms.

The Trump administration has positioned chip export bans as a national security imperative, arguing that cutting off access to advanced semiconductors will slow China’s military modernization and surveillance capacity. In response, Beijing has retaliated by restricting exports of critical minerals like gallium and germanium, both essential for chipmaking, and by investing heavily in its domestic semiconductor ecosystem.

Huang, who has visited Taiwan several times this year, reaffirmed Nvidia’s commitment to its manufacturing partnerships despite these tensions.

“Business is very strong,” he said. “So I came back to encourage my TSMC friends.” Nvidia relies on TSMC to produce its most advanced chips, including the Blackwell architecture, using the foundry’s cutting-edge 4-nanometer process technology.

When asked about Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s recent plan to build a semiconductor fabrication plant to support AI growth, Huang noted the formidable barriers to entry.

“Building advanced semiconductor manufacturing capabilities like TSMC does is extremely hard,” he said. “But it’s a very important technology and the demand is extremely high.”

Huang also sought to clarify earlier remarks reported by the Financial Times suggesting he had said China would win the AI race.

“That’s not what I said,” he explained. “What I said was that China has very good AI technology. They have many AI researchers.”

He added that half of the world’s AI researchers are based in China and that some of the most popular open-source AI models originate there.

“They’re moving very, very fast,” he said. “The United States has to continue to move incredibly fast; otherwise, the world is very competitive, so we have to run fast.”

IBM Balances Automation-fueled Layoffs with AI-Focused Hiring Spree for Graduates

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IBM is cutting thousands of jobs worldwide as part of its ongoing shift toward artificial intelligence and software-driven services, yet the tech giant pledges to ramp up recruitment of young graduates skilled in emerging technologies.

The dual strategy highlights a defining paradox of the AI era: while automation is displacing traditional roles, it is also creating demand for a new generation of workers fluent in machine learning, quantum computing, and data science.

The company confirmed Tuesday that it would lay off a “low single-digit percentage” of its global workforce—potentially affecting more than 2,500 employees—as it restructures to align with what CEO Arvind Krishna called the “AI-first” transformation of business operations. IBM, which employed about 270,000 people globally at the end of 2024, said the job cuts are necessary to free up resources for its fast-growing AI and cloud divisions.

“IBM’s workforce strategy is driven by having the right people with the right skills to do the work our clients need,” an IBM spokesperson told Fortune. “We routinely review our workforce through this lens and at times rebalance accordingly.”

The layoffs, part of a sweeping corporate trend toward automation and efficiency, come as companies across industries—from Amazon and Target to Accenture—reshape operations around artificial intelligence. What sets IBM apart, however, is its simultaneous pledge to hire aggressively among new graduates, particularly those with strong foundations in AI-related skills.

“People are talking about either layoffs or freezing hiring, but I actually want to say that we are the opposite,” Krishna told CNN last week, before confirming the latest cuts. “I expect we are probably going to hire more people out of college over the next 12 months than we have in the past few years.”

Krishna, who has positioned IBM as a frontrunner in generative AI and enterprise automation, said the company’s next phase of growth depends on talent that can build, deploy, and manage AI systems for clients worldwide.

“Skills of people are really important,” he emphasized. “We need skills in AI. We need skills in quantum. We need skills that our clients feel really good about technology being deployed in their environment.”

The company’s restructuring reflects a broader transformation in global employment patterns. Entry-level and mid-tier administrative roles—long seen as stepping stones for young professionals—are being automated at record speed. A Harvard University study found that firms adopting AI have sharply reduced junior hiring, with algorithmic systems now handling tasks such as data analysis, scheduling, and customer support that were once assigned to human staff.

According to the U.S. Federal Reserve, job postings have been declining since early 2022, making it harder for graduates to find entry-level work. Yet employers continue to seek candidates who can integrate AI tools into their workflows. A joint report by Microsoft and LinkedIn found that 71% of business leaders would rather hire a less experienced applicant who understands AI systems than a veteran who doesn’t.

Against this backdrop, it is believed that IBM’s approach—replacing redundant roles while hiring workers with advanced technical fluency—signals how companies plan to navigate the transition to automation.

Alyssa Cook, a senior managing consultant at Beacon Hill Staffing, told Fortune that firms “would rather hire a candidate who has hands-on experience with the specific tools they are implementing if they have the ability and interest to train up on other skills.”

Elon Musk, Satya Nadella, and Sundar Pichai have each echoed similar views in recent months, predicting that the next phase of workforce expansion will favor “AI natives”—workers who can build, train, or adapt models to improve business efficiency.

However, experts have cautioned that technical skills alone may not guarantee job security. “We’re not just looking for people who know the tools,” said Alejandro Castellano, CEO of automation firm Caddi. “We’re looking for those who are curious, adaptable, and thoughtful about how they use AI. That mindset makes the biggest difference.”

The dual strategy underscores IBM’s effort to balance efficiency with innovation—eliminating legacy roles that can be automated, while investing in the human capital that can steer its next phase of technological expansion.

Still, the reality for many workers is less optimistic. Thousands will lose their jobs in the months ahead, even as the company celebrates new AI-driven hires.

JP Morgan’s Latest Bitcoin Prediction: $170K in 6-12 Months

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JP Morgan Chase puts contents through its CEO account, it goes viral. But the same content via JPMC account, no one cares (WSJ)

JPMorgan has forecasted that Bitcoin could reach around $170,000 in the next 6-12 months, based on a fresh analysis released on November 6, 2025.

This comes amid a recent pullback in BTC’s price below $100,000 it was trading around $103,000 as of early November 7, marking its first dip under that psychological level in four months. The prediction stands out as bullish, especially against a backdrop of broader market caution, including revised-down targets from firms like Galaxy Digital now at $120,000 for year-end 2025, down from $185,000.

Lead Analyst: Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Managing Director, argues Bitcoin is currently undervalued relative to gold when adjusted for volatility. Gold’s recent surge above $4,000/oz has increased its volatility, making BTC more appealing on a risk-adjusted basis.

The BTC-to-gold volatility ratio has fallen below 2.0, meaning Bitcoin now absorbs about 1.8 times more “risk capital” than gold. At BTC’s current market cap of ~$2.1 trillion, this implies a need for a ~67% increase to align with gold’s ~$6.2 trillion in private-sector investments via ETFs and physical holdings.

Price Math: A 67% cap rise from current levels points to ~$170,000 per BTC. JPMorgan notes BTC was ~$36,000 overvalued vs. gold at the end of 2024 but is now ~$68,000 undervalued.

The October 10 liquidation wave the largest ever for BTC perpetual futures has cleared excess leverage, with open interest ratios normalizing. This “deleveraging phase” is seen as complete, setting the stage for upside.

Timeline: “Significant upside” over the next 6-12 months, assuming stable conditions. This isn’t JPMorgan’s first BTC-gold comparison—earlier in October 2025, they eyed $165,000 by year-end—but the new report extends the horizon and refines the target.

While JPMorgan’s take is optimistic, sentiment is mixed: Bearish Signals: October was BTC’s worst month since 2018 (down 4-5%), driven by a $128 million DeFi hack, whale sell-offs ~400,000 BTC dumped, and macro headwinds like potential tariffs. Some analysts doubt a quick rebound to $125,000 by end-2025.

Voices like Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego predict BTC could hit $1 million “very shortly” to rival gold’s reserve status. ETF inflows remain positive overall, despite modest October redemptions.

On platforms like Reddit’s r/CryptoCurrency, responses range from excitement (“I want to believe”) to skepticism (“Kiss of death from JP Morgan”), with some joking about the bank’s track record.

Bitcoin’s year-to-date gains are still robust despite the dip, fueled by ETF demand and its “digital gold” narrative. JPMorgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon remains personally skeptical of crypto, but the firm’s research arm has grown more constructive.

A sustained move to $170 k would re-price the entire crypto capital stack, force central-bank policy responses, and cement BTC as a macro asset—but only if gold and leverage stay in JPMorgan’s forecasted range.

Macro shock – Fed QT + tariff war ? risk-off; BTC drops to $80 k. Regulatory clampdown – SEC reclassifies BTC ETFs as “security” ? forced redemptions. Gold catch-up – If gold volatility collapses, JPM model flips bearish.

Gold ETFs (GLD) see outflows; JPM’s own volatility-adjusted model implies gold needs to hit $4,800/oz to stay competitive ? unlikely in 12 mo. BTC seen as “digital gold 2.0”; reduces relative appeal of 10-yr T-bills.

Possible 25–50 bps upward pressure on yields if institutional rotation accelerates. ETH/BTC ratio likely stays <0.04 until BTC stabilizes; alts underperform until Q2 2026. Meme coins (DOGE, PEPE) still pump on retail hype.

If this prediction holds, it could signal a rebound from the post-peak correction BTC hit $126,000 ATH in October. Keep an eye on gold prices, futures leverage, and ETF flows for confirmation—volatility is BTC’s middle name.