The 2026 FIFA World Cup has become the biggest catalyst yet for the rapidly expanding prediction market industry, driving record trading activity across leading event-contract platforms as millions of users wager on match outcomes, tournament winners and related events.

The month-long football spectacle, widely forecast to become the largest betting event in history, pushed trading volumes on platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket and Robinhood-backed Rothera to unprecedented levels, highlighting the growing mainstream adoption of regulated prediction markets beyond politics and macroeconomic events.

Data compiled by Dune Analytics, which was first published by CNBC, showed that Kalshi recorded more than $31 billion in notional trading volume in June, representing a surge of more than 70% from $17.9 billion recorded in May. The platform has consistently generated more than $1 billion in daily trading volume since the World Cup kicked off on June 11, underscoring the tournament’s role in transforming sports-related event contracts into one of the fastest-growing segments of the alternative trading market.

International rival Polymarket also enjoyed its strongest month on record. Its global platform processed more than $10.8 billion in notional trading volume during June, reversing the slowdown experienced in April and May. Meanwhile, Polymarket’s U.S. platform recorded more than $3.5 billion in trading volume, almost doubling May’s $1.77 billion.

The surge demonstrates how prediction markets are rapidly evolving into mainstream financial products, with sports increasingly joining elections, inflation, interest rates and geopolitical developments as major drivers of trading activity.

The World Cup has become an ideal testing ground because it combines massive global audiences, clearly defined outcomes and continuous events over several weeks, generating sustained user engagement rather than short-lived spikes associated with one-off political or economic announcements.

The excitement surrounding the tournament has also provided an early boost for Rothera, the prediction market joint venture established by Susquehanna International Group and Robinhood. The platform, which officially launched in June, processed approximately $2 billion in notional trading volume during its debut month after Robinhood began routing selected World Cup event contracts through the exchange.

According to Bank of America, Rothera has already captured around 7% of the U.S. prediction market, an impressive start for a newcomer competing against more established players.

The knockout stages continue to attract enormous trading activity. Ahead of the United States’ Round of 16 clash against Belgium on Monday night, traders had already exchanged more than $64 million worth of contracts on Kalshi and approximately $122 million on Polymarket relating to whether Team USA would ultimately win the World Cup.

Despite the heavy trading, market pricing suggested optimism remained limited. Kalshi assigned the United States just a 4.3% probability of lifting the trophy, while Polymarket’s implied odds were even lower at 3%, illustrating how prediction markets continuously incorporate collective expectations into contract pricing.

To capitalize on the football frenzy, platforms have aggressively competed for users through marketing campaigns and promotional incentives.

Polymarket launched a global competition offering up to $2 million to participants capable of predicting a perfect World Cup knockout bracket, while Kalshi prominently featured “Trade the World Cup” across its mobile application to attract sports-focused traders.

Beyond headline trading volumes, the tournament has also boosted open interest across the industry. Open interest, which measures the total value of outstanding contracts yet to be settled, climbed above $1 billion on Kalshi, indicating that users are maintaining larger positions throughout the competition rather than simply placing short-term bets.

Polymarket’s international platform recorded open interest approaching $400 million, remaining near historically elevated levels despite recent fluctuations in trading activity.

Industry observers believe the World Cup represents far more than a successful sporting event for prediction markets. It is widely viewed as the industry’s most significant operational stress test to date, demonstrating whether exchanges can efficiently process billions of dollars in transactions while maintaining orderly markets, accurate pricing and effective safeguards against manipulation.

That performance is attracting close scrutiny from regulators, institutional investors, and financial firms evaluating whether prediction markets can mature into a permanent component of global financial infrastructure.

Asaf Meir, Chief Executive Officer of market integrity firm Solidus Labs, which partners with Kalshi, said the tournament represents a defining moment for the industry. According to Meir, regulators and institutions are increasingly asking whether prediction markets have become sufficiently mature, liquid, and secure to support sustained high-volume trading without compromising market integrity.

“The World Cup is such a huge pressure test to see whether indeed prediction markets are able to deliver their word on maintaining a level playing field for all investors for a long period of time in a sustained high-volume environment,” he said.

Unlike traditional sportsbooks, prediction markets are taking a position as financial exchanges where participants trade contracts based on the probability of future events rather than placing conventional bets. That distinction has attracted growing interest from hedge funds, quantitative traders and retail investors seeking alternative ways to express market views.

Sports have dominated activity during the World Cup, but market participants expect attention to shift back toward contracts linked to inflation, monetary policy, corporate earnings, elections, and geopolitical developments once the tournament concludes.

Goldman Sachs has strengthened its position as the leading mergers and acquisitions adviser in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa during the first half of 2026, capturing its largest share of the market in nearly a decade as regional dealmaking reached its highest level in 19 years, according to LSEG data.

Dealmaking in the region totaled $676 billion during the January to June period, more than double 2025 levels, reflecting a backdrop of looser regulatory constraints and renewed corporate confidence. Goldman advised on 111 deals, representing 44% of the EMEA M&A total by value in the first six months of 2026, up from 42% in the same period a year earlier. The bank’s share was its highest for the January-June period since 2018, when it reached 46%.

The investment bank, which is also the global leader in M&A advisory, has long dominated the EMEA sector. In the first half of this year, its closest rival, JPMorgan, managed to slightly narrow the gap but still trailed with 35% market share after advising on 99 announced deals. That compared with Goldman’s 11 percentage point lead over JPMorgan in the first half of 2025. Globally, Goldman maintained a commanding 38% market share and advised on the biggest number of deals of any firm.

“Companies are taking a long-term strategic view and investing for where they want to be in the coming decades, not just the next few quarters,” said Carsten Woehrn, co-head of M&A in EMEA at Goldman Sachs.

Goldman’s dominance was particularly evident in the largest transactions. The bank advised on 15 of the 20 biggest deals in the region, including working alongside Morgan Stanley on Unilever’s approximately $45 billion sale of its food business to McCormick, the largest deal of the period, and on TK Elevators’ $34 billion combination with Kone. Its closest rival, JPMorgan, worked on 13 of the biggest deals and was not involved in the Unilever-McCormick transaction.

Goldman’s sustained leadership in EMEA M&A comes amid a broader transformation in the advisory landscape since the global financial crisis, when the field became narrower and more concentrated, according to Valeria Vitkova, associate professor of finance at Bayes Business School.

“The firm’s sustained leadership reflects more than simply a succession of favorable years. It appears to represent a sustained competitive advantage that has persisted throughout the post-crisis period,” said Vitkova, who added that in that period dealmaking has become more complex.

The surge in activity this year contrasts with last year’s slowdown, which was partly attributed to initial uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Despite ongoing market volatility, bankers report that companies are increasingly looking beyond short-term turbulence to pursue strategic opportunities.

Independent advisory boutique Rothschild advised on the highest number of deals at 163, but Goldman’s lead was built on its involvement in the largest transactions. This highlights the bank’s strength in handling complex, high-value mandates that require deep sector expertise and global reach.

The robust first-half performance suggests dealmakers are regaining confidence after a period of caution. Looser regulatory constraints in parts of the region have likely contributed to the pickup, allowing companies to pursue transactions that might have faced greater hurdles in previous years.

Analysts believe that Goldman maintaining its position at the top of the league tables bolsters its reputation as the go-to adviser for major strategic moves. The bank’s ability to secure mandates on some of the period’s most significant deals underscores its competitive edge in a market where relationships, expertise, and execution capabilities remain paramount.

However, the competitive landscape continues to evolve. Analysts note that JPMorgan’s ability to narrow the gap slightly indicates that rivals are also positioning themselves strongly. Other players, including boutique firms like Rothschild, continue to carve out significant roles, particularly in terms of deal volume.

Looking ahead, bankers caution that league tables could shift substantially in the second half if announced deals fail to close. Goldman, for instance, is advising Commerzbank, which has been seeking to fend off a $28 billion bid from UniCredit. The outcome of such high-profile situations could influence final rankings.

However, the strong first-half performance in EMEA M&A provides an encouraging signal for the global dealmaking environment.