Nigeria’s palm oil output has climbed to 1.57 million tonnes in 2025, with rising profits at Okomu and Presco signaling renewed commercial momentum even as the country faces a supply gap of over 1 million tonnes.

Nigeria’s palm oil production has risen to 1.57 million tonnes in 2025, extending a five-year growth trend and reviving discussions about the country’s ambition to regain greater influence in the global vegetable oil market.

The production figures were disclosed during a mission visit to Abuja by the Council of Palm Oil Producing Countries, according to the News Agency of Nigeria. The visit reinforced ongoing efforts to deepen technical and policy collaboration between Nigeria and major palm oil-producing nations.

Output has increased from 1.28 million tonnes in 2020 to 1.57 million tonnes in 2025, indicating gradual but consistent gains. However, domestic consumption has also risen — from 2.45 million tonnes to 2.61 million tonnes over the same period — leaving a supply deficit of more than 1 million tonnes that continues to be covered by imports.

Nigeria spends an estimated $600 million annually on palm oil imports despite oil palm being indigenous to West Africa, and the country once ranked among the world’s leading producers before Southeast Asian nations overtook it.

Corporate Earnings Reflect Sector Momentum

Beyond aggregate production figures, Nigeria’s progress is increasingly visible in the financial performance of its leading listed palm oil companies.

Okomu Oil Palm Company Plc reported a pre-tax profit of N87.3 billion for the year ended 31 December 2025, representing a 63.64% increase from N53.3 billion recorded in 2024, according to its unaudited financial statements. The sharp rise underscores improved pricing conditions, stronger operational efficiency, and sustained demand for locally produced palm oil.

Similarly, Presco Plc posted a profit before tax of N178.56 billion for the year ended December 31, 2025, marking a 57.3% increase from N113.53 billion in 2024, according to its unaudited financial statements filed with the Exchange on January 30, 2026.

The combined earnings performance of Okomu and Presco suggests that large-scale, vertically integrated producers are benefiting from improved yields, expanded plantation acreage, and stronger domestic pricing. Their profitability also reflects the protective effect of import gaps, which can support local producers when domestic demand outstrips supply.

While the performance of leading companies signals progress, Nigeria’s broader palm oil ecosystem remains dominated by smallholder farmers, who account for more than 80% of national output. Many operate with aging trees, limited access to improved seedlings, and outdated processing techniques, resulting in low yields and inefficiencies along the value chain.

CPOPC Secretary-General Izzana Salleh emphasized that the oil palm’s origins in West Africa present an opportunity for Nigeria to reclaim competitiveness through coordinated action among producing nations.

“Together, producing nations can shape a stronger, more coordinated global voice. One that protects farmer livelihoods, advances food security, and ensures balanced, development-oriented sustainability frameworks,” she said.

Dr. Alphonsus Inyang, President of the National Palm Produce Association of Nigeria, said full membership in CPOPC would enable Nigeria to access improved technologies, hybrid planting materials, and capacity-building programs that could raise the country’s Oil Extraction Ratio for both palm oil and palm kernel.

Improving yields per hectare remains central to narrowing the supply deficit. Replanting programs, mechanized mills, and stronger rural infrastructure are widely viewed as critical to lifting national output beyond incremental gains.

Balancing Growth With Self-Sufficiency Goals

Nigeria’s rise to 1.57 million tonnes represents measurable progress, yet consumption growth continues to absorb much of the increase. Achieving self-sufficiency would require either a significant acceleration in production or structural reforms that boost productivity across smallholder networks.

The strong financial results of Okomu and Presco indicate that commercial-scale operators are positioned to capitalize on favorable market dynamics. Their expansion strategies, reinvestment capacity, and access to capital markets could play a pivotal role in driving further sector consolidation and modernization.

At the same time, policymakers face the task of aligning trade policy, agricultural financing, and sustainability standards to reduce import dependence while ensuring competitiveness in global markets.

Nigeria’s palm oil revival is gathering pace, as reflected in both rising national output and record corporate earnings. But it remains a challenge to translate the momentum into a decisive narrowing of the supply gap.

France signaled the EU is prepared to deploy its most powerful trade defenses, including the anti-coercion “trade bazooka”, if Washington’s new 10% global tariff escalates into a broader confrontation.

A fresh transatlantic trade confrontation is taking shape after President Donald Trump imposed a flat 10% global tariff, prompting France to warn that the European Union is prepared to use its most forceful economic countermeasures if necessary.

French Trade Minister Nicolas Forissier told the Financial Times that Paris is coordinating with EU partners and the European Commission to assess the U.S. move.

“Should it become necessary, the EU has the appropriate instruments at its disposal,” he said.

The tariff decision followed a ruling by the Supreme Court of the United States that many of Trump’s earlier duties, imposed under emergency economic powers, were illegal. While the judgment curtailed part of the administration’s prior trade strategy, the new 10% levy signals a recalibration rather than a retreat.

At the center of Brussels’ response calculus is the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), a mechanism designed to deter or counter economic pressure from third countries. Informally dubbed the “trade bazooka,” the ACI is broader and more flexible than conventional tariff retaliation.

Unlike traditional countermeasures that target goods trade, the ACI allows the EU to act across services, investment, and public procurement. Options include:

• Tariffs on services, including digital and financial services.
• Restrictions on market access or licensing.
• Export controls.
• Limitations on foreign direct investment.
• Exclusion of foreign firms from EU public procurement contracts.

French officials indicated that U.S. technology companies could be among those affected if the instrument were activated. That prospect materially shifts the balance of leverage. While the EU runs a goods trade surplus with the U.S., the United States enjoys a significant surplus in services — particularly in technology, digital platforms, and financial services. Any retaliation in those areas would strike at sectors where American firms are highly competitive.

Suspended Tariff Arsenal

Beyond the ACI, the EU maintains a suspended package of retaliatory tariffs covering more than €90 billion ($106 billion) worth of U.S. goods. Originally assembled during earlier disputes over steel, aluminum, and industrial subsidies, that list can be reactivated swiftly.

The products on that roster were chosen not only for economic weight but also for political resonance — a hallmark of EU trade strategy, which often calibrates retaliation to maximize domestic pressure in the opposing country.

The existence of both the ACI and the suspended tariff list gives Brussels layered escalation pathways, from symbolic signaling to systemic economic countermeasures.

French President Emmanuel Macron addressed the developments at the annual agricultural salon in Paris. Referring to the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on earlier tariffs, he said, “It is not bad to have a Supreme Court and, therefore, the rule of law. It is good to have power and counterweights to power in democracies.”

Macron’s remarks subtly underscored a broader point: institutional constraints matter in trade governance. At the same time, he emphasized reciprocity as the guiding principle for France and the EU, adding that Europe should not be “subjected to unilateral decisions.”

France’s economic exposure is significant as the United States is a major destination for French agricultural products, luxury goods, fashion, and aeronautical exports. These sectors are not easily substitutable in global markets, making tariff increases economically sensitive.

Legal Reconfiguration in Washington

The Supreme Court’s recent ruling limited the administration’s ability to rely on certain emergency statutes to impose tariffs. However, it did not eliminate presidential authority to levy duties under other trade laws. The new 10% global tariff appears to be grounded in alternative statutory mechanisms, underscoring how executive trade powers can be restructured within constitutional boundaries.

From Brussels’ perspective, this legal pivot complicates strategy. The EU must assess whether the tariff is temporary, negotiable, or a durable policy shift. The degree of permanence will influence whether the EU opts for immediate retaliation or extended negotiations.

The U.S. and EU are each other’s largest trading partners when goods and services are combined. Integrated supply chains mean that tariffs can ripple through manufacturing networks, aerospace production, pharmaceuticals, and advanced technology sectors.

A broad 10% U.S. tariff raises costs for European exporters and could compress margins or redirect trade flows. Retaliation targeting U.S. services could, in turn, disrupt transatlantic investment and digital operations.

Financial markets tend to view transatlantic trade friction as a macro risk factor, particularly when combined with currency volatility or divergent monetary policy. Escalation could weigh on business confidence and capital expenditure decisions.

Strategic Autonomy vs. Managed Interdependence

The episode also intersects with Europe’s push for “strategic autonomy” — reducing vulnerability to external economic pressure while maintaining open markets. The ACI was conceived precisely to counter what Brussels describes as coercive trade practices.

Activating it against Washington would be politically significant. It would mark the first major use of the instrument against a longstanding ally, signaling that the EU is willing to defend its economic sovereignty even within traditional partnerships.

At the same time, EU leaders are aware that a full-scale trade confrontation would undermine growth at a moment when Europe faces structural economic headwinds, including energy transition costs and industrial competitiveness challenges.

Brussels’ messaging suggests a dual-track approach: preparedness paired with restraint. The language from Paris emphasizes capability rather than inevitability. By highlighting the ACI publicly, France increases negotiating leverage without immediately deploying countermeasures.

The coming weeks will likely focus on whether diplomatic channels can narrow differences. If talks stall and the 10% tariff remains in place, the EU may escalate incrementally — beginning with reactivating suspended tariffs before considering broader service-sector measures.