U.S. Treasury yields were largely unchanged on Tuesday as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting, one of the final major macro events before markets close out the year.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was flat at around 4.12% in early trading, while the 2-year yield, which is more sensitive to expectations around monetary policy, edged down by less than one basis point to 3.459%. With many global markets operating with reduced staff and lower volumes during the year-end period, price movements remained muted, reflecting limited conviction ahead of the Fed release.

Markets are focused on the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s Dec. 9–10 meeting, scheduled for publication at 2 p.m. ET. At that meeting, policymakers approved a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, bringing the federal funds target range to 3.50%–3.75% and marking the third rate reduction of the year. The decision signaled a further shift away from the aggressive tightening cycle that defined much of the Fed’s response to post-pandemic inflation.

Still, the cut was far from unanimous, and the minutes are expected to shed light on the depth of divisions within the committee. Some policymakers pushed for additional easing, citing concerns that restrictive policy could lead to further softening in the labor market. Others argued that financial conditions were already accommodative enough and warned that cutting too quickly could undermine progress on inflation, which, while easing, has yet to return decisively to the Fed’s 2% target.

Investors will be parsing the minutes for any indication of how policymakers are weighing those risks heading into 2026. Of particular interest will be language around inflation persistence, wage growth, and the resilience of consumer demand, as well as how confident officials are that inflation expectations remain anchored.

“Our baseline assumption is that the Committee will remain incentivized to retain as much flexibility as possible into the January 29 FOMC decision – a stance that has been consistent throughout 2025 and we expect will be rolled into the new year,” Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said.

That emphasis on flexibility has become a defining feature of the Fed’s recent communication. Rather than committing to a preset path of cuts, officials have repeatedly stressed data dependence, a message that has kept short-term yields elevated relative to longer-dated bonds and contributed to a flatter yield curve.

Beyond the Fed minutes, broader macro conditions continue to shape Treasury market dynamics. Recent data have shown inflation cooling from earlier highs but remaining uneven across sectors, while the labor market has slowed without showing signs of abrupt deterioration. This combination has reinforced expectations that the central bank will move cautiously, balancing the need to support growth against the risk of rekindling price pressures.

Currently, the lack of movement in yields reflects both the thin liquidity typical of the final days of the year and the market’s reluctance to take strong positions ahead of clearer guidance from policymakers. Once full trading resumes in early January, the tone of the December minutes is likely to play a key role in shaping expectations for the Fed’s next steps and setting the direction for Treasury yields at the start of 2026.

Billionaire investor Femi Otedola has divested his controlling stake in Geregu Power Plc, Nigeria’s leading independent power producer, in a landmark transaction valued at approximately $750 million.

The deal, executed through the sale of his 95% interest in Amperion Power Distribution Company Limited—Geregu’s majority shareholder—to MA’AM Energy Ltd, an Abuja-based integrated energy firm, marks one of the largest private power sector divestments in Nigerian history. According to a regulatory filing on the Nigerian Exchange website dated December 29, 2025, MA’AM Energy acquired the 95% equity in Amperion, effectively transferring indirect control of Geregu’s 77% stake from Otedola’s Calvados Global Services Limited to the new entity.

Geregu clarified that the transaction “does not involve the direct sale or transfer of shares of Geregu Power Plc,” preserving the company’s public shareholding structure on the Nigerian Exchange unchanged. However, ultimate beneficial ownership of the controlling block has shifted. Sources familiar with the matter confirmed the deal closed on December 29, financed by a consortium of Nigerian banks led by Zenith Bank, with Blackbirch Capital serving as financial adviser.

MA’AM Energy, engaged in electricity generation, supply, trading, and marketing, gains operational control of Geregu, positioning it to expand within Nigeria’s evolving power market. One source linked MA’AM Energy to Senator Abdulaziz Yari, a former Zamfara governor, though this has not been officially confirmed. Geregu Power, currently valued at N2.85 trillion and trading at N1,140 per share, remains one of the Nigerian Exchange’s most capitalized and profitable firms, contributing roughly 10% of the national grid supply with a nameplate capacity of 435 MW.

Under Otedola’s stewardship since the 2013 privatization, the plant expanded from 40 MW, achieved consistent profitability, and delivered average annual dividends of N20 billion. The company, listed on the Nigerian Exchange in October 2022, has been a cornerstone of Nigeria’s power sector, generating over N50 billion in revenue in 2024 and maintaining strong margins amid chronic electricity shortages. Otedola’s energy journey spans over two decades: founding Zenon Petroleum and Gas in 1999, acquiring and rebranding African Petroleum as Forte Oil, and carving out Geregu post-2019 exit from downstream oil.

The divestment unlocks substantial liquidity, signaling a strategic pivot toward financial services where Otedola chairs First HoldCo, parent of First Bank of Nigeria, holding a 17.1% stake—the largest individual shareholding. Otedola regained his position as First Bank’s majority shareholder earlier this year through strategic acquisitions, further consolidating his influence. Since entering First Bank in 2022, Otedola has driven aggressive reforms: recapitalization (raising over N300 billion), restructuring non-performing loans, and debt recovery initiatives amid Nigeria’s banking consolidation wave.

The $750 million proceeds position him to deepen influence in a sector bracing for higher capital requirements under CBN guidelines, potentially fueling further acquisitions or expansions in First HoldCo’s portfolio. The transaction arrives amid pivotal developments in Nigeria’s electricity market. The Federal Government recently launched a N4 trillion power-sector liquidity fund, with an initial N590 billion disbursement to settle legacy debts owed to generation companies, including Geregu. This intervention aims to stabilize cash flows and encourage private investment in a sector plagued by liquidity gaps, with debts to GenCos exceeding N1.5 trillion as of mid-2025.

Otedola’s exit reflects a maturing investment cycle for early post-privatization players, with rising valuations and improving liquidity prompting capital recycling. Similar transactions are underway: the sale of Eko Electricity Distribution Company to North South Power is nearing completion, with approximately N150 billion already received. Industry observers see increased investor activity, with legacy operators seeking fresh capital for a more market-driven environment featuring limited government support and tariff reforms under the Multi-Year Tariff Order framework.

However, Industry stakeholders have mixed views. While some praise the deal for injecting fresh capital into power generation, others question MA’AM Energy’s experience in managing large-scale assets, given its focus on smaller-scale energy trading. The acquisition could accelerate Geregu’s expansion, including potential upgrades to its gas-fired plant or diversification into renewables, aligning with Nigeria’s energy transition goals.

Market reaction was muted in thin holiday trading, with Geregu shares unchanged at N1,140. Analysts view the deal positively for sector maturation, though questions linger on MA’AM’s execution capabilities in a capital-intensive industry plagued by gas supply constraints, transmission bottlenecks, and regulatory uncertainties. Geregu’s strong fundamentals—consistent output of 300-400 MW and EBITDA margins above 50%—position it well under new ownership.

With Nigeria’s power demand projected to double by 2030, such transitions could catalyze investment, but energy experts believe success hinges on addressing systemic issues like the N2 trillion sector debt and 60% energy poverty rate.