Over the past decade, global oil and gas investors have funneled an estimated $80 billion into energy projects elsewhere, largely bypassing Nigeria. This stark revelation was made by Olu Verheijen, Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Energy, at the 2025 Nigeria International Energy Summit (NIES) held in Abuja on Monday.

The summit, which brought together top energy stakeholders and government officials, served as a platform to reflect on Nigeria’s 2024 energy sector performance and its implications for Africa’s broader energy transformation. A key takeaway was that the Nigerian government is aggressively pursuing reforms to restore investor confidence, enhance oil production, and reposition the country as a top-tier oil and gas investment destination.

Addressing the core issue of why Nigeria lost out on $80 billion in oil and gas investments, Verheijen pointed to long-standing concerns over regulatory instability, fiscal uncertainty, and security challenges that made the country unattractive to global investors.

To reverse this trend, President Tinubu issued three landmark directives in February 2024—Directives 40, 41, and 42—designed to remove investment bottlenecks and enhance Nigeria’s competitiveness in the global energy market.

According to Verheijen, these measures have already begun to yield results. By mid-2024, the Ubeta Final Investment Decision (FID) was secured through a joint venture with Total, followed by the approval of Bonga North FID by Shell and its partners at the end of the year. These multi-billion-dollar projects signal renewed confidence in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

Looking ahead, additional FID approvals are expected in 2025, further solidifying the country’s attractiveness as an energy investment hub.

Oil and Gas Sector Renaissance: Nigeria’s 2.06mbpd 2030 Target

Beyond attracting foreign investment, President Tinubu has set ambitious targets for Nigeria’s oil and gas sector. The administration aims to restore crude oil production to 2.06 million barrels per day (bpd) in the short term and scale up to 4 million bpd by 2030.

To achieve this, the government has focused on enhancing security in oil-producing regions, a major challenge that has long hindered production.

“Through a data-driven security framework implemented in collaboration with oil operators, the Office of the National Security Adviser, and the Ministry of Defence, we have facilitated a 500,000 bpd increase in oil production since the start of this administration,” Verheijen revealed.

Verheijen described 2024 as a landmark year for Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, citing a series of transformative developments:

1. Nigeria secured three out of Africa’s four FIDs—valued at over $5.5 billion—cementing its position as a premier destination for offshore investments.
2. The country approved its first deepwater FID in over a decade, signaling renewed investor confidence.
3. Five major oil asset acquisitions were completed, expanding production capabilities.
4. Two domestic refineries were revived, boosting local refining capacity.
5. Dangote Refinery commenced petrol production, significantly reducing Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel.

“Our nation solidified its position as a premier destination for deep offshore oil and gas investments, approved its first deepwater FID in over a decade, facilitated five major asset acquisitions, revived two domestic refineries, and commenced petrol production at Africa’s largest refinery.

“These milestones are not coincidental; they result from strategic leadership and decisive economic policies under President Bola Tinubu’s administration,” Verheijen said.

Reforming the Power Sector: Presidential Metering Initiative (PMI)

Beyond oil and gas, the Tinubu administration is also pushing reforms in the power sector, focusing on eliminating inefficiencies and stabilizing electricity supply.

A key initiative is the Presidential Metering Initiative (PMI), which consolidates all metering programs under a unified framework targeting the deployment of seven million smart meters.

“The goal is to end the inefficiencies of estimated billing, improve revenue collection for electricity distribution companies (Discos), and enhance overall service delivery,” Verheijen explained.

To ensure the long-term financial stability of the power sector, the government is also clearing outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers and generation companies while implementing a gradual transition to cost-reflective tariffs. The strategy aims to balance affordability with financial sustainability, ensuring that vulnerable populations are protected through a targeted subsidy system.

Nigeria’s Role in Africa’s Energy Future

Verheijen emphasized that Nigeria’s success in securing major oil and gas investments, expanding refining capacity, and enhancing electrification will have far-reaching consequences for Africa’s energy security, intra-African trade, and industrialization.

As the largest oil producer in Africa, Nigeria plays a critical role in regional energy markets. OPEC data shows that while major oil producers like Saudi Arabia (9 million bpd), Russia (9 million bpd), and the U.S. (13 million bpd) dominate global production, Nigeria remains the highest producer in Africa.

As competition for investment grows, Nigeria is positioning itself as a top energy hub, leveraging policy reforms and security improvements to attract global investors and reclaim its share of the $80 billion that previously bypassed the country.

To reach 4 million bpd production by 2030, the Tinubu administration is banking on continued investor confidence, a stable regulatory framework, enhanced security, and improved infrastructure.

While challenges remain—especially in security and refining capacity—the recent wave of FID approvals, refinery revivals, and strategic reforms indicate a renewed trajectory for Nigeria’s energy sector.

Trump is moving super fast as he remakes America in his own ways. Now, he has visited the wealth visa which allows people with change to get US green cards, and then US citizenship, by investing in the country: “In a dramatic shift in U.S. immigration policy, President Donald Trump announced a new, exclusive path to U.S. citizenship—a $5 million ‘gold card’—aimed at attracting ultra-wealthy investors.”

From Trump’s mouth: ‘“We’re going to be putting a price on that card of about $5 million, and that’s going to give you [permanent resident] Green Card privileges, plus it’s going to be a route to citizenship,” Trump explained. “It’s somewhat like a Green Card, but at a higher level of sophistication.”’

Good People, Trump’s The Art of the Deal is one of my current readings. What he did in Ukraine, closing a deal with Ukraine for minerals, was asymmetric that I could not understand how a human being could win left and right that way. Ukraine as a result of that deal will not just lose parts of its lands and thousands of young men and women, but now parts of its future. And yet “No NATO” or US security guarantee! How would they explain what happened to their grandkids?

So, if Trump could get Ukraine to do that deal, this gold card of $5m seems fair!

Trump Unveils $5m ‘Gold Card’ as a New Pathway to U.S. Citizenship, Scraps EB-5 Visa Program

In a dramatic shift in U.S. immigration policy, President Donald Trump announced a new, exclusive path to U.S. citizenship—a $5 million ‘gold card’—aimed at attracting ultra-wealthy investors.

Speaking from the Oval Office on Tuesday, Trump positioned the initiative as a more refined alternative to the EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program, which his administration plans to terminate, citing widespread fraud.

Trump described the gold card as a luxury alternative to the traditional Green Card, granting permanent residency and a pathway to citizenship for those willing to pay the price.

“We’re going to be putting a price on that card of about $5 million, and that’s going to give you [permanent resident] Green Card privileges, plus it’s going to be a route to citizenship,” Trump explained. “It’s somewhat like a Green Card, but at a higher level of sophistication.”

The president emphasized that the initiative would attract wealthy and successful individuals, predicting that millions of these cards could be sold, boosting government revenues and reducing the national deficit.

“They’ll be wealthy and they’ll be successful and they’ll be spending a lot of money and paying a lot of taxes and employing a lot of people,” he said. “And we think it’s going to be extremely successful and never been done before.”

Scrapping the EB-5 Program

The announcement comes with the elimination of the EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program, which has been in place since 1990 and allowed foreign investors to obtain a Green Card by investing in U.S. businesses and creating at least 10 full-time jobs.

Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick criticized the EB-5 as being riddled with fraud, branding it as “full of nonsense, make-believe, and fraud.”

“It was a way to get a Green Card that was low priced,” Lutnick said, contrasting it with the $5 million ‘gold card’, which he argued would bring in more credible, high-net-worth individuals.

Once vetted, gold card holders will be expected to invest in the U.S. economy, with their payments helping to reduce the national deficit, Lutnick added.

A Controversial History of Investor-Based Immigration

The EB-5 program has long been controversial, with allegations of fraud and abuse, particularly in real estate deals. Per Independent, in 2017, Jared Kushner’s family business faced scrutiny after his sister, Nicole Kushner Meyer, traveled to Beijing to market EB-5 visas to wealthy Chinese investors willing to invest in Kushner real estate projects. The move was widely criticized, with a former White House ethics lawyer under George W. Bush calling it “corruption, pure and simple.”

The gold card initiative, however, escalates the pay-for-residency model to unprecedented levels, effectively auctioning off U.S. citizenship to the highest bidders.

Critics Slam the Move Amid Immigration Crackdown

Trump’s announcement comes amid his administration’s broader crackdown on immigration, including efforts to end birthright citizenship through executive order—an attempt that courts have thus far blocked.

Critics argue that while ordinary migrants face harsh restrictions, the administration is creating a special privilege for the ultra-rich. Immigration advocates and Democratic lawmakers blasted the move, accusing the president of selling U.S. citizenship to billionaires while denying opportunities to asylum seekers, skilled workers, and long-time undocumented residents.

“This is immigration for sale,” said Senator Alex Padilla (D-CA). “Trump is shutting doors on families fleeing war and persecution while rolling out the red carpet for the wealthiest people on the planet.”

Will It Work?

While Trump boasts that the gold card will bring in “big taxpayers and job producers,” some economists question whether wealthy investors would pay $5 million for a residency program when other countries, such as Canada, Portugal, and the UK, offer citizenship-by-investment programs at far lower costs.

Nonetheless, the Trump administration remains confident, with Commerce Secretary Lutnick predicting a massive demand for the gold card among the world’s wealthiest individuals.

“We’re getting high-level people, and they’re bringing their money here, not somewhere else,” Lutnick insisted.

Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.84% year-on-year in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This marks an improvement from the 3.46% recorded in Q4 2023 and the preceding quarter (Q3 2024), reflecting stronger-than-expected economic performance despite ongoing macroeconomic challenges.

The 3.84% growth rate exceeded the government’s full-year GDP growth projection of 3.75% for 2024, denoting that Nigeria’s economy performed better than initially anticipated.

Analysts had predicted a slowdown below the 3.75% target, citing inflationary pressures, currency volatility, and weak consumer demand. However, the latest figures indicate that several key sectors, particularly services and non-oil industries, outperformed expectations.

According to the NBS report: “Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.84% (year-on-year) in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2024. This growth rate is higher than the 3.46% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the third quarter of 2024 growth rate (approximately 3.46%).”

The positive economic expansion provides a boost for policymakers who have been pushing for economic diversification, reducing the country’s dependence on oil revenue.

Sectoral Breakdown: Services Lead Growth as Oil Sector Struggles

The Q4 2024 GDP growth was largely driven by the Services sector, which expanded by 5.37% and contributed 57.38% to the total GDP. The sector’s strong performance offset weaknesses in the oil industry, which recorded only 1.48% growth, a sharp decline from 12.11% in Q4 2023.

Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production stood at 1.54 million barrels per day (mbpd) in Q4 2024, slightly lower than the 1.56 mbpd in Q4 2023 but an improvement from 1.47 mbpd in Q3 2024.

Despite an uptick in production, the sector’s GDP growth fell significantly, contributing only 4.60% to the economy, down from 4.70% in Q4 2023 and 5.57% in Q3 2024. The full-year growth for the sector stood at 5.54%, marking a recovery from the -2.22% contraction in 2023, but still below expectations given Nigeria’s vast oil reserves.

The non-oil sector expanded by 3.96% in Q4 2024, an increase from 3.07% in Q4 2023 and 3.37% in Q3 2024. It accounted for 95.40% of total GDP, further solidifying its dominance over the oil sector.

The financial and insurance sector was among the top performers, growing by 27.78%, with its GDP contribution rising to 6.10%, up from 4.95% in Q4 2023. The telecommunications sector also performed well, expanding by 5.90%, with its GDP share increasing to 17.00%, compared to 16.66% in Q4 2023.

Trade recorded 1.19% growth, slightly down from 1.40% in Q4 2023, but higher than 0.65% in Q3 2024. Manufacturing expanded by 1.79%, improving from 1.38% in Q3 2024, although its GDP share declined to 8.07%. The transportation sector rebounded strongly, growing by 18.61%, a sharp turnaround from the -29.00% contraction in Q4 2023.

Some industries, however, struggled. The electricity and gas sector contracted by -5.04%, a steep drop from the 6.17% growth recorded in Q4 2023. The construction sector also slowed, posting 2.95% growth, compared to 3.70% in Q4 2023.

Nigeria to Rebase GDP and CPI in 2025 to Improve Economic Accuracy

The government has announced plans to rebase the country’s GDP and Consumer Price Index (CPI) by 2025.

Rebasing GDP involves updating the base year used for economic calculations, ensuring that new and emerging sectors are better captured in official statistics. Nigeria last rebased its GDP in 2014, then, it was Africa’s largest economy. With the upcoming rebasing, experts believe Nigeria could reclaim the top spot from South Africa, which currently holds the position.

The rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is also expected to provide a more accurate measure of inflation, reflecting changes in consumer behavior and spending patterns.

The move is expected to enhance investor confidence by providing more accurate data for decision-making.

What This Means for Nigeria’s Economy in 2025

The better-than-expected GDP growth in Q4 2024 underscores a positive economic trajectory. The GDP rebasing in 2025 is expected to improve Nigeria’s economic ranking, particularly if the new methodology captures the expansion of digital industries, fintech, and other high-growth sectors.

However, with the oil sector’s contribution to GDP shrinking, Nigeria’s economic resilience is increasingly dependent on non-oil industries such as telecoms, finance, and trade. Economists note that this shift highlights the need for continued economic diversification and investment in infrastructure to support growth in key sectors.