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Impacts of Tokenized Gold Surpassing $6 Billion Market Capitalization

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

The tokenized gold sector has surpassed $6 billion in market capitalization as of mid-February 2026, marking a significant milestone in real-world asset (RWA) tokenization.

This growth reflects strong investor demand for digital exposure to physical gold amid broader market volatility, with the sector adding over $2 billion year-to-date (YTD). Key drivers include major tokens like Tether Gold (XAUT) (around $3.6B+ dominance) and PAX Gold (PAXG) around $2.3B, which together account for the vast majority of the market.

Over 1.2 million ounces of physical gold back these assets, and the broader tokenized commodities category has hit similar highs around $6.1B+. This surge positions tokenized gold as one of the fastest-growing segments in crypto RWAs, appealing as a stable, on-chain alternative to traditional bullion—especially during periods of uncertainty in equities and crypto.

Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded substantial net outflows of $410 million approximately $410.37M per reports on February 12, 2026—the second consecutive day of redemptions, bringing two-day totals to around $686M. Leading the exits were BlackRock’s IBIT ($157M outflow), Fidelity’s FBTC ($104M), and others like Grayscale’s GBTC.

No major ETF saw inflows that day. These outflows coincide with:A major $2.5B Bitcoin options expiry on February 13. Broader bearish sentiment, including analysts from Standard Chartered slashing BTC targets citing macro pressures, weaker risk appetite, and fading Fed cut expectations.

Bitcoin’s price under pressure, with ETF assets under management dropping sharply from 2025 peaks from ~$170B to around $80-85B range in some trackers. Weekly and monthly flows have turned negative in 2026 so far, testing institutional commitment despite long-term cumulative inflows remaining strong over $50B+ historically.

Tokenized gold’s rise could signal a rotation toward more stable RWAs in uncertain times. This milestone with tokenized commodities hitting $6.1–$6.126B, up 53% in recent weeks and over 360% year-on-year underscores accelerating adoption of real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, particularly gold-backed tokens like Tether Gold (XAUT) ($3.6B) and PAX Gold (PAXG) (~$2.3B), which dominate >95% of the segment and back over 1.2 million physical ounces.

Safe-haven rotation and demand driver — Amid gold’s rally (spot prices around $4,965–$5,114/oz, with records above $5,000+), investors are flocking to on-chain gold for its liquidity, instant settlement, fractional ownership, and blockchain benefits (no physical storage hassles).

This positions tokenized gold as a “digital gold” alternative that’s outperforming volatile crypto in risk-off environments. Tokenized commodities’ boom contributes to the tokenized assets sector (total ~$328B+), signaling mainstream integration of blockchain with traditional finance.

Analysts project explosive upside, potentially to trillions in tokenized RWAs by 2028–2030. High concentration (two issuers control most), custody/regulatory uncertainties, and potential liquidity mismatches if redemptions spike could test resilience, especially with physical gold price volatility.

Even crypto-native figures e.g., early Bitcoin supporters buying millions in PAXG reflect tactical moves toward stability. This growth reflects flight to tangible, low-volatility assets during uncertainty.

Impacts of Bitcoin ETF Outflows ($410M Daily)

The $410M+ outflows led by BlackRock’s IBIT ~$158M, Fidelity’s FBTC ~$104M marked continued pressure, part of multi-day/week redemptions amid broader negative flows like $686M+ over two days earlier, billions cumulatively since late 2025 peaks.

BTC traded around $65,000–$68,000 down sharply from 2025 highs near $126,000–$127,000, a ~50% drop in some views, exacerbated by macro headwinds, a $2.5B BTC options expiry (February 13), and fading Fed cut hopes. Standard Chartered slashed its 2026 BTC target to $100,000; warning of dips to $50,000 before recovery, citing capitulation risks.

Outflows signal reduced risk appetite among large allocators not just retail panic, with ETFs losing billions recently. This tests Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative—it’s behaving more as a high-beta risk asset correlated with equities/liquidity, not a consistent hedge like physical gold.

Contributes to bearish vibes, with ETF AUM drops, miner selling, and leverage unwinds amplifying downside. Weekly/monthly crypto fund flows turned heavily negative, contrasting gold’s inflows. While historical inflows remain strong overall, persistent exits question institutional conviction in BTC during prolonged uncertainty.

Investors rotating from high-volatility Bitcoin exposure into stable, tokenized safe havens like gold. Gold and its digital versions absorbs “fear trade” demand amid tariffs, policy shifts, geopolitics, and macro risks, while Bitcoin faces capitulation as a liquidity-sensitive asset.

This could: Accelerate RWA/tokenized gold adoption as a bridge between crypto and tradfi. Pressure BTC short-term (potential further downside to $50K–$60K levels per some forecasts) but set up rebounds if macro stabilizes or liquidity returns. Highlight evolving portfolio strategies: Gold for defense, BTC for growth/speculation.

It underscores 2026’s theme—safe-haven preference trumping risk assets in turbulent times, with tokenized gold emerging as a key winner in the digital economy.

Japan Seeks to Reshape the Rare Earth Landscape

By
TI Partners
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0

The Japanese government relies on new energy technologies and advanced materials science to secure its industrial future and address what it sees as national security vulnerabilities.

A Japanese research team has successfully collected seabed samples containing rare earth elements at a depth of 6000 meters in the Pacific Ocean, near Minamitorishima Island. And if this initiative comes to fruition, we could see another big player in the rare earths sector, with potential repercussions on the USDJPY chart.

The dispute over rare earths has become far more serious amid escalating geopolitical tensions, as indicated by some charts, such as REMX, which has been rising sharply since mid-2025.

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) team used the deep-sea scientific drill ship Chikyu to achieve their first successful continuous lift operation, which involved retrieving material from extreme ocean depths.

The samples will undergo analysis to determine their total volume and mineral content, which will be conducted before the 2027 full-scale testing phase. Many advanced industries, such as electric vehicles, renewable energy, robotics, computing, and defense technology, whose companies are frequently featured on the premarket movers list, require rare earths, including dysprosium, neodymium, terbium, and gadolinium.

Rare earth elements are not as rare as they seem. Their extraction is just economically draining, because those elements exist in nature at very low concentrations. For the moment, China largely dominates global production, with more than 90% of refined rare earths worldwide.

Japanese industries (like those in many other countries) have been highly dependent on Chinese suppliers. In 2024, more than 60% of Japan’s imported rare hearts were from China. This is a disadvantage, especially in tense moments.

China imposed restrictions on rare-earth material exports to Japanese businesses from late 2025 to early 2026 as part of a diplomatic dispute, following Tokyo’s statements on regional security matters. The new controls created supply chain disruptions, impacting TDK and other major manufacturers, and TDK indeed reported difficulties obtaining materials after export restrictions took effect.

In February 2026, China granted Japan a small number of rare-earth export permits, despite strict export controls. Japan’s deep-sea mining effort — if successfully commercialized — could substantially reduce this dependency, and erode one of China’s most significant geopolitical levers.

Japan can achieve greater economic self-protection and international market strength by developing its own domestic mineral supply chain. The United States and other allies could easily form international partnerships to support Japan’s efforts to diversify its supply sources in line with the country’s broader strategic plan.

 Toward a new Industrial Paradigm?

With the deep-sea rare-earth mining project (and the space-based solar power initiative), Japan demonstrates its determination toward technological independence — securing diverse resource security.

The success of these frontier technologies could weaken China’s longstanding dominance of critical rare earths and make Japan a new leader in sustainable energy innovation. But from what we know so far, the path to commercial viability on deep-sea extraction requires long-term investments and key international partnerships.

Geopolitical uncertainty is likely the foundation for those strategic decisions, as Japan bases its supply chain and energy system renovations on cutting-edge technological developments. This might be a way to boost its future economic performance and its positions in international markets.

Before You Step into Oke Ogun

By
Mutiu Iyanda
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A good researcher is not defined only by well-designed instruments, but by the ability to use them wisely in the field. Designing appropriate tools for data collection is essential, but it is not enough. When data is not collected using suitable techniques and strategies, even the best instruments fail. Yet established rules and procedures are not watertight. Field realities often demand flexibility. A researcher who is too rigid risks losing both access and insight. This reality unfolded vividly during my Oke Ogun Fieldwork Trip, where I was expected to gather security and peacebuilding-related data for a project.

As usual, the first task was to establish contacts across the five selected local governments: Saki East, Saki West, Itesiwaju, Iwajowa, and Olorunsogo. Through professional colleagues and friends, I began the process. Mr. Azeez Abdulwasiu, Chairman of Irawo Owode Community Development, became my first point of contact. In 2024, I had conducted fieldwork in Irawo Owode, collecting socio-economic data aimed at establishing a social and educational resources centre for the youth. Drawing on that previous relationship, Mr. Azeez helped me reach out to initial contacts in the selected local governments.

Then came the first test of adaptability.

None of the five individuals he introduced showed interest in assisting me, despite my explanation of the project’s importance. Some explained that they were no longer residing in the region. What initially appeared to be a simple networking step quickly turned into discouragement.

A pressing question emerged: how do I enter a location I have barely visited, one whose people and hospitality I scarcely know? As doubts accumulated, I remembered colleagues from the University of Ibadan. I reached out and secured three new contacts. However, only one was an indigene of a selected town where data collection would actually take place. Instead of clarity, more uncertainty followed.

For two weeks, the search continued. Eventually, the husband of one of my professional colleagues, a state government worker, activated his local network. Through connections linked to a neighbour who was an indigene of one of the selected towns, five additional contacts were identified. Persistence, not procedure, opened the door.

 

After several days of communication, the journey began on February 3, 2026, with the expectation that the process would now be smooth across all towns. At Igbeti in Olorunsogo Local Government, Prince Fola Adeola played a pivotal role by reintroducing me to a palace worker who significantly shaped the experience. Before my arrival with my Research Assistant, Habeeb Ojelere, the palace worker had already organised participants and ensured their presence at the palace. During the interviews and Focus Group Discussion, Mr. Bosere, another contact, joined and supported the first phase of data gathering.

From Sepeteri to Oje Owode and other locations, the experience remained mixed, marked by both breakthroughs and challenges, indicating that research in Oke Ogun is far from the quiet, orderly life many imagine. It is dusty roads that stretch longer than expected, notebooks stained with red soil, and interviews that evolve into lessons in patience, humility, and survival. Mornings begin before the sun grows unforgiving. By the time one arrives in a community, farmers are already heading to their fields, traders negotiating in markets, and children observing curiously.

Research here does not announce itself with sophisticated equipment or air-conditioned offices. It demands presence. It demands listening.

In Oke Ogun, data is not handed over, it is earned. People want to know who you are, where you come from, and why their stories matter. A questionnaire alone achieves little. Trust becomes the most reliable instrument. Sometimes that trust is built under a mango tree, over shared water, or through conversations that drift beyond the research topic but reveal the realities shaping people’s lives.

The terrain itself enforces resilience. Network failures require reliance on pen and memory. Transportation challenges disrupt carefully made plans. Yet these constraints sharpen observation. One begins to notice how seasons influence livelihoods, how traditions shape decisions, and how distant policy choices quietly affect rural communities.

There are frustrations, interviews interrupted by farm duties, rain erasing a day’s effort, funding stretched thin. Yet there are also profound rewards: when respondents express gratitude for being asked questions no one has asked before, when patterns begin to reflect genuine struggles and strengths, and when research transcends publication and becomes representation.

Being a researcher in Oke Ogun transforms assumptions into understanding. It reveals that knowledge does not reside solely in journals, but in proverbs, farming practices, survival strategies, and collective memory. What may appear rural from afar reveals itself as a complex system of innovation and endurance.

Coinbase’s Q4 2025 Earnings Miss are Multifaceted, Spanning Short-Term Market Reactions

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

Coinbase Global (COIN) reported its Q4 2025 earnings (covering October-December 2025) after market close on February 12, 2026, and the results came in below Wall Street expectations amid a broader cryptocurrency market downturn.

Total revenue: $1.78 billion, missing analyst estimates of around $1.83–$1.85 billion; a miss of roughly 2.5–3.8% depending on the consensus source. Adjusted EPS: $0.66 per share, significantly below expectations of $0.86–$1.05, a larger miss on the earnings side, around 23–37%.

Transaction revenue: Fell to $982.7 million below $1 billion, down from prior periods due to weaker trading volumes and lower crypto prices. A GAAP net loss of approximately $667 million or -$2.49 per share, driven largely by unrealized losses on crypto holdings and investments, marking a swing from profitability in the year-ago quarter.

Subscription and services revenue provided some support at around $727 million, and the company highlighted operational strengths like doubled trading volume market share in 2025 overall, but the cyclical nature of crypto weighed heavily.

The earnings miss reflects a slowdown in crypto trading activity, with Bitcoin and other assets experiencing price declines into early 2026, reducing fee-based revenue despite solid user engagement in some areas.Regarding the stock (COIN): It dropped sharply on the news, closing down about 7.9% on February 12, 2026 from around $153 to $141.

Looking at the recent week roughly February 6–13, 2026, the stock has been under pressure overall, with notable declines in the days leading into and following earnings. From earlier February levels, it trended lower, aligning with a weekly decline on the order of 3% or more when factoring pre-earnings weakness and the post-earnings drop (though exact week-to-date figures vary by precise timeframe; the headline’s “falls 3% on the week” appears to capture the net performance amid volatility).

Shares showed some after-hours recovery in initial trading post-release but remain well below 2025 highs, reflecting investor concerns over the crypto “winter” cycle. Coinbase executives noted in their shareholder letter that crypto is inherently cyclical, and the current environment isn’t as dire fundamentally as sentiment suggests.

COIN shares closed down 7.9% on February 12 from around $153 to $141.09, with heavy volume reflecting investor disappointment over the revenue shortfall (3% miss on consensus) and especially the swing to a large GAAP net loss. Pre-market trading on February 13 showed some recovery attempts but the stock remains volatile and near recent lows.

The drop contributed to ongoing weekly weakness amid a softer crypto environment where Bitcoin hovers around $69K and other majors like ETH and SOL are also down modestly. This reinforces COIN’s high beta to crypto sentiment—earnings misses in downturns amplify downside more than beats do upside in rallies.

Several firms cut price targets post-release, Rosenblatt from $325 to $240, JPMorgan to ~$252–$290 range while maintaining overweight/buy ratings, citing limited near-term upside but viewing the dip as potentially overdone with regulatory tailwinds like the CLARITY Act possible in coming months.

Some see RSI oversold signals suggesting short-term bounce potential if crypto stabilizes. The miss drivers: Transaction revenue ~$983M fell due to lower trading volumes and crypto prices in late 2025.

Adjusted EPS ($0.66) missed by ~23–37%, while the GAAP net loss of ~$667M stemmed largely from non-cash items: ~$718M in unrealized losses on crypto holdings and investments and other charges. Revenue ($1.78B) was down ~5% QoQ and ~20–22% YoY, reflecting cyclical weakness despite diversification efforts.

Subscription and services revenue ~$727M held up better, supported by Coinbase One nearing 1M paid subscribers, up significantly, USDC-related income, staking, and institutional products like financing/derivatives. Full-year 2025 showed strength: trading volume doubled market share, total volume hit $5.2T, and the company met guidance in prior quarters.

Strong balance sheet: ~$11.3B in cash equivalents, $14B+ total resources, $1.7B in share repurchases offsetting dilution, and a new $2B authorization for opportunistic buybacks. Q1 2026 subscription/services projected at $550–$630M signaling continued cyclical headwinds but confidence in non-trading streams.

Brian Armstrong and Alesia Haas emphasized the “Everything Exchange” narrative working—record highs in products like Coinbase One, USDC balances, and derivatives/staking growth offsetting retail trading softness. This reduces reliance on volatile transaction fees, positioning Coinbase better for prolonged “crypto winter” phases compared to pure-play exchanges.

The results highlight crypto’s inherent boom-bust cycles—2025 was strong overall, but Q4 slowdown flipped profitability. Management views current sentiment as overly pessimistic relative to fundamentals, with early 2026 showing some volume rebounds. Prolonged weakness could pressure margins further.

Regulatory and political uncertainties persist, though positive developments could help. Institutional outflows and macro factors add near-term drag. Short-term, COIN remains a leveraged proxy for crypto recovery—down ~40% YTD amid broader market choppiness, but with potential for rebound on sentiment shifts or catalysts.

Long-term bulls see structural advantages outweighing cyclical pain, while bears worry about sustained deleveraging in a slow-growth environment. This miss underscores Coinbase’s vulnerability to crypto downturns but also its evolving moat through diversification and capital discipline.

The stock’s reaction feels sentiment-driven rather than a death knell—watch Bitcoin stability and Q1 guidance for the next leg.

 

 

Over $1T Gets Wiped from Equities as the S&P Falls More Than 1.5%

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

The S&P 500 closed down 1.57% dropping 108.71 points to 6,832.76, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.34% (669.42 points to 49,451.98) and the Nasdaq Composite sliding 2.03% (469.32 points to 22,597.15).

This move contributed to over $1 trillion in market capitalization being wiped out from equities in the session or broader recent selloff context, driven primarily by renewed fears over AI disruption. Investors rotated out of tech and software stocks amid concerns that advancing AI technologies from startups like Anthropic could cannibalize revenues of established players in software, services, and related sectors.

This has been described as a continuation of an “AI angst” or “SaaSpocalypse” theme that intensified earlier in February, with prior days already erasing massive value from Big Tech and software nearly $1 trillion from software stocks in earlier sessions.

The selloff was broad but tech-heavy, with notable drops in companies like Cisco (-12.3%), AppLovin (-19.7%), and others tied to AI capex or competitive threats. Broader factors included digestion of strong recent U.S. jobs data which reduced Fed rate cut expectations and anticipation of the January CPI inflation report released on February 13.

Gold and silver also fell sharply in tandem, despite their typical safe-haven status. This appears linked to the same dynamics: a stronger U.S. dollar from delayed rate cut bets, reduced safe-haven demand amid the equity rout, and a “liquidity flush” triggering leveraged position unwinds.

Silver plunged dramatically up to ~10% intraday on February 12, dropping below $76/oz from highs near $85, while gold fell over 2-3% below $5,000/oz from recent peaks above $5,100, settling around $4,955–$4,966.

Industrial metals like platinum and copper saw similar pressure. Markets were choppy heading into February 13 premarket (futures slightly down ~0.2–0.3%), with focus on the CPI data for further direction—economists expected cooling to ~2.5% y/y. This reflects ongoing volatility in early 2026, where AI “prove-it” skepticism, high valuations, and macro shifts have led to repeated sharp pullbacks after a strong late-2025 run.

The sharp equity selloff with the S&P 500 down over 1.5% and more than $1T in market cap erased—has spilled over into Bitcoin, which has shown high correlation with risk assets like tech stocks during this period rather than acting as a decoupled “digital gold.”

Bitcoin is currently trading around $69,000. It opened near $66,200–$66,300, hit highs around $67,100–$67,350, and lows dipping to $65,800–$65,900, reflecting a roughly 1–2% decline in the last 24 hours, continuing a multi-week downtrend.

This follows a close around $66,200–$66,900 yesterday, with intraday pressure aligning closely with the broader risk-off move in equities.Key impacts and context: Unlike traditional safe havens like gold, which fell but has shown periods of outperformance.

Bitcoin has behaved more like a growth/tech asset in this environment. It dropped sharply alongside Nasdaq/tech weakness amid AI disruption fears, delayed Fed rate cut expectations from strong jobs data, and macro uncertainty.

Correlations with equities remain elevated, while Bitcoin-gold correlation has weakened toward zero in recent months. BTC peaked above $126,000 in late 2025 but has shed nearly 48–50% since, entering a prolonged consolidation/correction phase. It’s on track for a fourth straight weekly decline, with sentiment indicators flirting with extreme fear levels.

On-chain signals show some long-term holder capitulation like realized profit/loss ratios dipping, miner deleveraging, and U.S. institutional outflows via Spot ETFs and Coinbase premium gaps staying negative for weeks.

The selloff isn’t isolated; altcoins and sentiment have weakened in tandem, with analysts like those at Standard Chartered warning of potential “final capitulation” toward lower levels before recovery. However, long-term views remain constructive— JPMorgan’s adjusted models point to $170,000–$266,000 targets based on reduced leverage and volatility dynamics.

Focus shifts (February 13) January CPI inflation report, which could influence Fed expectations and risk appetite. If equities stabilize or rebound, BTC could test resistance near $68,000–$70,000. A break below $65,000 might accelerate downside toward recent lows around $60,000–$61,000.

Institutional accumulation provides some underlying support, but short-term volatility remains high amid thin liquidity and forced unwinds. This reflects a classic risk-off rotation where Bitcoin has not decoupled as hoped, amplifying the equity wipeout’s effects rather than buffering them. The “prove-it” phase for crypto as a mature asset class continues amid these macro headwinds.

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