The odds on Polymarket for another US government shutdown by February 14, 2026, have surged significantly in recent days, reflecting stalled negotiations over Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding and broader appropriations lapses.
The “Yes” probability stands at 95%, up from around 73% earlier in the week on February 10. This market has seen over $2.3 million in trading volume, with recent large bets including a $50,000 wager on “Yes” at high odds pushing the probability higher amid growing trader consensus on a shutdown.
The market resolves to “Yes” if the US Office of Personnel Management announces a federal shutdown due to lapsed funding by 11:59 PM ET on February 14—effectively covering the end of this week. Comparable markets on platforms like Kalshi show similar pessimism, with low odds around 3% for a DHS funding deal passing Congress this week.
Recent X posts highlight the rapid shift, with multiple users noting the jump to 95%+ and warning of market volatility in assets like Bitcoin due to uncertainty. If a shutdown occurs, it would primarily affect DHS operations starting February 13 at midnight, potentially leading to broader economic ripples like delayed data releases and financial market swings.
However, prediction markets like this have historically been accurate, over 94% a month out, so this high probability suggests a real risk, though resolutions can still shift with last-minute deals. A potential US government shutdown in February 2026, stemming from stalled negotiations over Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding, would primarily affect DHS operations starting after midnight on February 13.
This partial shutdown—potentially the third in recent months—would disrupt about 13% of the federal civilian workforce, with most essential personnel required to work without pay until resolved. While immigration enforcement and border operations under ICE and CBP would largely continue due to prior funding allocations, other DHS components could face significant operational challenges.
Approximately 56,000 Coast Guard personnel (active duty, reserve, and civilian) could go without pay if the shutdown extends beyond a few days, suspending non-essential missions except those for national security or life protection. TSA screeners and other essential DHS staff in cybersecurity and counter-terrorism would continue working unpaid, potentially leading to higher attrition rates and morale erosion.
Broader furloughs could affect up to 2 million federal workers across impacted agencies, though this shutdown is limited to DHS. Extended shutdowns exacerbate staffing issues; for instance, TSA could see increased turnover, delaying technology upgrades and security enhancements.
TSA checkpoints at airports would remain operational but could face slowdowns if unpaid workers call out, leading to longer lines and potential flight delays—similar to the 10% schedule reductions during the 2025 shutdown. FAA funding is unaffected, so air traffic control continues normally.
FEMA operations could be hampered, delaying responses to natural disasters, though essential functions persist. The Coast Guard would limit activities to critical safety missions. CISA’s finalization of a cyber incident reporting rule would pause, delaying mandatory reporting for critical infrastructure.
Law enforcement training and non-essential counter-terrorism efforts could be suspended. Minimal public disruption expected, as ports of entry stay open and ERO/OPLA focus on detained cases. However, employers might face delays in PERM processing, LCAs for H-1B visas, and prevailing wage determinations.
Consular visa services could slow. Programs like E-Verify, EB-5 Regional Centers, and Conrad 30 J-1 doctors would halt. National parks (if broader) could close, though this shutdown is DHS-specific. Shutdowns typically reduce GDP by 0.1-0.2% per week; the 2025 six-week shutdown caused an $11 billion loss, with permanent costs up to $14 billion.
Recent data shows a 1.5-point GDP drop from prior shutdowns, alongside job losses e.g., 72,000 in manufacturing and inflation rises to 2.7% amid tariffs. Delays in key reports like Non-Farm Payrolls, CPI/PPI, GDP, and PCE could create uncertainty, stalling IPOs, M&As, and investor positioning.
Stock dips, reduced tourism, and export declines are common, with ripple effects on global trade, including to India. Disrupted federal loans, higher bankruptcies, increased credit card debt, and crushed farmers from trade avoidance.
Up to 1.2 million jobs could be lost in prolonged scenarios. While Social Security checks continue, verifications and card issuances delay; veterans’ benefits could stall. Short shutdowns (days) have minimal felt impacts, but extensions amplify attrition, delays, and economic drag.
Historical data shows costs totaling billions, with calls for reforms like automatic funding to prevent recurrence.
