The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) has openly criticized the recently released National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report on economic growth, alleging that the data was manipulated to present an overly optimistic picture of the nation’s economic condition.

This sentiment reflects widespread skepticism among Nigerians, who argue that the official statistics fail to align with their daily realities of economic hardship.

The NBS reported a 3.46% growth in Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q3 2024, attributing the improvement primarily to the services sector. This figure marks an increase from the 3.19% recorded in Q2 2024 and significantly surpasses the 2.54% growth in Q3 2023.

President Bola Tinubu has cited this growth as evidence of recovery following his administration’s economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and foreign exchange reforms. However, critics argue that the metrics fail to reflect the country’s broader economic challenges, particularly in sectors like manufacturing, which are struggling under the weight of rising costs and dwindling consumer demand.

Chris Onyeka, the National Assistant General Secretary of the NLC, described the NBS report as a “voodoo document,” accusing it of misrepresenting the economic realities of ordinary Nigerians.

“Unemployment cannot be coming down when factories are shutting down and consumer activity is plummeting,” Onyeka argued. He challenged the NBS to provide evidence of the sectors generating jobs and labeled the report a “figment of imagination concocted by people who want to manipulate figures.”

“Once data does not reflect reality, it loses relevance. Unfortunately, the NBS has lost credibility as a result of the data they continue spewing out,” he said.

Onyeka further criticized the credibility of the NBS, comparing its perceived failures to those of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

“The truth remains: the NBS has become a failed institution, much like INEC in the eyes of the public,” he remarked. According to Onyeka, the report undermines public trust by presenting data disconnected from the harsh realities on the ground.

Manufacturing Sector Crisis

Data within the NBS report itself paints a dire picture of Nigeria’s manufacturing sector. The sector’s nominal GDP growth plunged by 90.11% year-on-year, from 36.59% in Q3 2023 to just 3.62% in Q3 2024.

In real terms, the manufacturing sector grew by a marginal 0.92%, an improvement over Q3 2023’s 0.48%, but below the 1.27% achieved in Q2 2024. Its contribution to nominal GDP also dropped to 14.30%, down from 16.18% in Q3 2023, highlighting its declining influence on the economy.

The struggles of the manufacturing sector are not new but have been exacerbated in recent years. The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) revealed that 767 manufacturing companies shut down operations in 2023, with an additional 335 classified as distressed. This downturn has been described by Odiri Erewa-Meggison, Chairman of MAN’s Export Promotion Group, as “the most challenging period in the history of the manufacturing sector.”

The economic reforms touted by the Tinubu administration have had mixed effects. While they are credited with improving fiscal discipline, they have also contributed to inflation, which reached 33.88% in October 2024, up from 32.70% in September. Many Nigerians argue that the rising cost of living and declining purchasing power have offset any potential benefits of GDP growth.

MAN Director General Segun Ajayi-Kadir emphasized the need for targeted trade policies and infrastructural development to rejuvenate the manufacturing sector.

The NBS data has fueled public distrust, as Nigerians grapple with economic challenges that seem at odds with the reported growth figures. With key sectors like manufacturing in decline and unemployment reportedly worsening, critics question the relevance of GDP growth as a measure of economic health.

“Where are the jobs coming from?” Onyeka asked. “Is it from employers who are complaining of consumer resistance and slowing economic activities? It doesn’t add up.”

He pointed out that employers continue to face reduced consumer spending and rising inventories, conditions that are hardly conducive to job creation.

The Modi of India. The Xi of China. The Biden of America. The Putin of Russia. Modi has entered a dynasty mode in the business lexicon of Indians; he is amazing. Xi continues to drive China despite the post-covid challenges.  Yes, if you check where Putin picked Russia and where they are economically today, his economic stewardship of Russia will surprise you. And whether his name is Biden or Trump or whoever, the Americans will continue to scale opportunities.

In all these men, there is a constant: passion for their nation and tough love for their fellow citizens. They do all to improve their people, their communities and advance the state.

My question to you is this: Who can rise for Africa, and specifically, who can remake Nigeria in our generation? See what Modi has done for India (video).

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The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has commenced its final two-day meeting of 2024 in Abuja, with analysts widely anticipating a hike in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 25 to 50 basis points, buoyed by recent quarterly economic gains.

The MPR hike is driven by Nigeria’s persistent inflationary pressures, volatile naira, and ongoing economic reforms.

Nigeria’s inflation surged to 33.88% in October 2024, up from 32.7% in September, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This marks the third-highest inflation rate in the country’s history, only trailing the 34.19% peak recorded in June 2024.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has aggressively implemented monetary tightening since 2022, raising the MPR by 1,525 basis points (bps) over the period, including 825 bps since mid-2023.

The inflationary pressure stems primarily from supply-side factors, such as flooding in northern Nigeria, rising food prices, and transportation costs.

Razia Khan of Standard Chartered Bank told BusinessDay that inflation remains driven by these shocks rather than excessive demand.

“This follows a rise in October inflation to 33.9 percent y/y, reflecting continued pressure on food and transport prices. Given meaningful monetary tightening in recent months, the October inflation uptick was much faster than we had expected. In our view, it reflects the lagged effect of earlier flooding in northern Nigeria, and possibly also the lagged effect of September’s sizable fuel price increase, which was followed by a much smaller increase in October. Supply-side shocks, rather than excessive demand, continue to drive Nigeria’s inflation,” she said.

Other analysts who spoke to BusinessDay broadly expect the CBN to raise the MPR in response to persistent inflation and naira volatility. Ayodeji Ebo of Afrinvest suggests a 25-50bps hike to maintain the attractiveness of naira-denominated assets and reduce pressure on foreign exchange.

“Given the unrelenting rising inflation, I expect the CBN MPC to raise the MPR by 25-50bps to keep the interest rate attractive and reduce pressure on FX. On the other hand, it will add further pressure on the companies due to the impact on financial costs.”

However, he warns this could add financial strain on businesses due to rising borrowing costs.

Tobi Ehinmosan of FBNQuest Capital Research concurs, emphasizing the MPC’s commitment to addressing inflationary pressures.

“I think the MPC has always reiterated that their main objective is to address inflationary pressures and ensure price stability. As such, if inflation continues to trend up, the MPC may likely continue to sustain its hawkish stance to rein in inflation,” Ehinmosan noted.

Meanwhile, Charlie Robertson of FIM Partners UK Ltd expects no rate change, citing fragile confidence in the naira as a potential reason for caution.

The CBN has ramped up its use of Open Market Operations (OMO) to manage liquidity. In the first nine months of 2024, it sold N7.6 trillion in OMO bills, compared to just N150 billion during the same period in 2023. This tool has been critical in mopping up excess liquidity and supporting exchange rate stability. Ayodele Akinwunmi of FSDH Merchant Bank noted that this aggressive strategy aligns with the CBN’s objectives to stabilize inflation and the naira.

The Last Hike in Sight?

While a rate increase is widely expected, analysts like Khan believe the November hike could mark the end of the current tightening cycle. “The cumulative effect of earlier tightening is likely still working its way through the economy,” she explained.

Nigeria’s economic reforms under President Bola Tinubu, including fuel subsidy removal and foreign exchange liberalization, have compounded inflation but also laid the groundwork for long-term structural improvements. Many, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), have noted that the impact of these reforms, alongside the CBN’s monetary tightening, will be critical in shaping Nigeria’s economic trajectory in the coming years.

For consumers and businesses, the likely hike means higher borrowing costs, which could dampen investments. However, the overall effectiveness of these policies in a supply-driven inflationary environment remains a topic of debate.