The Nigerian government has announced plans to rebase the country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2025, a move aimed at improving the accuracy of economic data and boosting investor confidence.

The Ministry of Finance revealed this initiative following a meeting between Adeyemi Adeniran, Statistician General of the Federation, and Wale Edun, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy.

The rebasing initiative is expected to be validated and launched in early 2025. According to the Ministry, the updated frameworks will enhance Nigeria’s economic management and align its indicators with global standards.

In a statement shared on X (formerly Twitter), the Ministry highlighted the potential of the rebasing effort to bring significant economic benefits. These include improved policy accuracy through the use of more precise fiscal and monetary data, increased investor confidence with a clearer and more reliable depiction of the economy, and enhanced global comparability by aligning Nigeria’s economic indicators with international benchmarks.

This rebasing exercise addresses long-standing concerns regarding Nigeria’s economic data, particularly its failure to capture the vast informal sector adequately. Estimates suggest that the informal sector accounts for approximately 60% of the country’s economic activities, yet it remains significantly underrepresented in current GDP figures. The government aims to present a fuller and more accurate picture of the economy by adopting a more comprehensive methodology. This, in turn, is expected to inform more effective policymaking and attract increased investment.

Rebasing involves updating the methodologies and base year used to calculate economic indicators such as GDP and inflation. This process is particularly crucial for Nigeria, where outdated frameworks have distorted the understanding of economic realities, making it challenging to address issues such as inflation, unemployment, and growth.

The current methodology, for instance, is said to have contributed to a significant decline in Nigeria’s GDP in dollar terms, causing the country to drop from its position as Africa’s largest economy to fourth place.

In 2023, the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS) undertook a similar adjustment when it updated its unemployment data methodology to include casual and self-employed workers. This revision led to a sharp decline in the official unemployment rate, from 33.3% to 5%. While the adjustment was criticized for failing to capture the true scale of unemployment, the NBS defended its position, citing alignment with global best practices.

The forthcoming rebasing of the CPI and GDP may encounter similar scrutiny, but its potential to provide a more holistic view of the economy is likely to outweigh initial skepticism.

The rebasing exercise also brings into focus several pressing issues for Nigeria. The country’s GDP valuation in dollar terms has been severely impacted by the depreciation of the naira, underscoring the urgent need for robust economic policies to stabilize the currency. Additionally, the updated data is expected to reveal deeper structural challenges, including the government’s over-reliance on oil revenues and its limited success in tapping into the informal sector.

The rebased data is believed to have the potential to guide better economic policies and restore investor confidence, positioning Nigeria to reclaim its status as Africa’s leading economy. However, many have expressed concern that it may be a ploy by the government to distort the country’s economic realities to suit its narrative.

In a world increasingly defined by artificial intelligence, the tech giants—Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon—are sparing no expense in their quest for dominance. Their combined spending on AI infrastructure is projected to exceed $240 billion in 2024, reflecting a 15% increase from earlier estimates for the year.

This unparalleled investment surge highlights the transformative potential of AI in reshaping industries, economies, and societal structures as companies rush to meet exploding demand and secure their foothold in the future.

The race for AI supremacy has reached a fever pitch. The global economic impact of artificial intelligence is forecasted to hit $20 trillion by 2030, far eclipsing the $5.7 trillion generated by the mobile economy in 2023. For companies at the forefront of the digital revolution, this presents a once-in-a-generation opportunity. Their investments are not just about keeping pace with competitors but about laying the groundwork for technologies that will define the future of work, creativity, and human interaction.

Central to this transformation is the sheer scale of infrastructure required to support advanced AI systems. Building, training, and deploying generative AI models like ChatGPT and Bard demand massive computing power, cutting-edge GPUs, and bespoke silicon. Only a handful of hyperscalers—those capable of managing global cloud networks—possess the resources to meet these demands.

By the third quarter of 2024, the four tech behemoths had already spent $170 billion on capital expenditures, marking a staggering 56% increase compared to the same period in 2023. Analysts anticipate that fourth-quarter expenditures will push their annual spending well beyond $240 billion, solidifying the year as a watershed moment in AI investment.

Among these companies, Amazon has emerged as the most aggressive spender. With its AI investments funneled through its cloud arm, Amazon Web Services, the company expects to allocate $75 billion in 2024, up sharply from $59 billion the previous year. Meta has also significantly increased its spending, raising its 2024 capital expenditure guidance to $38–40 billion as it accelerates its efforts to integrate AI-driven solutions into its ecosystem.

Alphabet has maintained a steady quarterly expenditure of $13 billion, ensuring its AI capabilities continue to expand. Microsoft, meanwhile, has spent nearly $10 billion per quarter this year on AI infrastructure, with plans to extend its footprint to emerging markets such as Brazil, Italy, Mexico, and Sweden.

This frenzy of investment has already begun to yield dividends. Microsoft has positioned itself as a leader in enterprise AI through products like Microsoft 365 Copilot and Azure AI, which have driven its AI-related revenues to an annualized run rate exceeding $10 billion. Amazon’s AI business through AWS is growing even faster, reaching multi-billion-dollar status with triple-digit growth rates that mirror the early explosive rise of its cloud services. Alphabet has tapped into its vast ecosystem of developers, with over two million leveraging its generative AI tools to create innovative solutions. Meta, though monetizing AI less directly, has reaped benefits through increased user engagement and advertising performance driven by AI-driven recommendations.

However, the race for AI dominance is not without challenges. The skyrocketing demand for GPUs and custom silicon has placed immense strain on global supply chains, with manufacturers like Nvidia and TSMC struggling to keep up. This supply-demand imbalance has made access to critical components a competitive advantage, further consolidating power among the wealthiest companies.

Additionally, the workforce implications of this AI revolution loom large. While AI promises to create new job opportunities in emerging fields, it also threatens to displace traditional roles, posing questions about how societies will navigate the transition.

Looking ahead, the momentum shows no signs of abating. Microsoft’s leadership has emphasized the need for sustained investment, viewing current spending levels as foundational for future growth. Amazon has described its AI endeavors as being in their early stages, with even more substantial outlays expected in 2025 and beyond. Alphabet is similarly preparing for a surge in AI spending as it scales its operations, while Meta continues to double down on the technology as core to its long-term strategy.

This unprecedented spending spree underscores the conviction among tech leaders that AI is not just a fleeting trend but a transformative force reshaping every facet of the global economy. As these companies push the boundaries of technological possibility, they are also redefining what it means to innovate, invest, and lead in an era dominated by artificial intelligence.

Nigeria’s fiscal woes have deepened as the cost of servicing foreign debt surged by 107.7% in the first eight months of 2024, reaching an alarming N3.8 trillion. This figure dramatically overshot the N1.83 trillion projected for foreign debt servicing in the 2024 budget by N1.97 trillion, according to the 2025-2027 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy (MTEF & FSP) released by the Budget Office.

The report paints a sobering picture of Nigeria’s debt profile. While the government had budgeted N7.41 trillion for total debt servicing—including domestic and foreign debts, sinking funds, and interest payments on securitized ways and means—actual payments reached N5.51 trillion by August. This represents 34.4% of the total budgeted figure.

Domestic debt servicing also slightly exceeded projections. The budget allocated N3.53 trillion for domestic debt, but actual spending rose to N3.6 trillion, a modest increase of N71 billion or 2%.

The sharp rise in foreign debt servicing costs, however, underscores the pressure on Nigeria’s public finances. Analysts attribute this to a combination of rising global interest rates, naira depreciation, and increased borrowing.

Decline in Oil Revenue, A Major Factor

Nigeria’s oil revenues, traditionally a cornerstone of government finances, have failed to meet expectations. Gross oil and gas revenue for 2024 was projected at N20 trillion, but only N9.83 trillion was realized by August—a performance rate of just 72.1%. After deductions, net oil and gas revenue inflows to the Federation Account stood at N8.5 trillion, falling short of prorated targets by 25.3%.

Persistent challenges in the oil sector, including production constraints, theft, and global price volatility, have undermined the country’s ability to capitalize on its natural resource wealth.

Bright Spots in Non-Oil Revenue Performance

In contrast, non-oil revenues provided a significant buffer. The Federal Government generated N12.74 trillion in retained revenue by August, achieving 73.8% of the N17.25 trillion target for the year. This performance was driven by an exceptional 160.1% achievement in non-oil revenue, which totaled N3.81 trillion.

Corporate Income Tax (CIT) and Value Added Tax (VAT) were standout performers, generating N1.71 trillion and N530.41 billion, respectively. CIT surpassed its target by 74.5%, while VAT exceeded expectations by 55.1%. Customs revenues also showed resilience, reaching N969.89 billion, or 95% of the target, bolstered by increased trade activity and enhanced collection systems.

Independent revenues, amounting to N2.3 trillion, alongside other revenue streams, contributed N4.83 trillion, further supporting the government’s finances.

The report highlights the impact of the naira’s depreciation on Nigeria’s debt servicing obligations, particularly for external debts denominated in foreign currencies. The depreciation has substantially increased the cost of servicing foreign debts, compounding fiscal pressures.

Additionally, increased domestic borrowing, often at higher interest rates, has added to the government’s financial burdens. These factors, coupled with a growing debt-to-GDP ratio—which exceeded 50% for the first time in March 2024—paint a bleak picture of Nigeria’s fiscal sustainability.

Government Claims of Reduced Debt-Servicing Ratio Under Scrutiny

This development sharply contradicts the federal government’s earlier claims that debt-servicing now consumes a reduced portion of national revenue, with officials stating that the debt-service-to-revenue ratio had fallen to 65%.

Adding to the dilemma is the government’s continued reliance on borrowing, which has created a cyclical debt trap. Essentially, the government is borrowing not to finance critical development projects but to service existing debt—a precarious situation that exacerbates Nigeria’s financial vulnerabilities.

The Weight of Debt-servicing on Budget Implementation

Looking ahead, Nigeria’s fiscal challenges are expected to intensify. The proposed 2025 budget is expected to feature a staggering N14 trillion deficit, highlighting the government’s inability to match revenue generation with expenditure needs. This deficit is likely to be financed through further borrowing, perpetuating the vicious cycle of debt accumulation.

Economists have repeatedly warned that such a trajectory risks locking the nation into a debt spiral where resources are diverted primarily to debt servicing at the expense of economic growth and development.

The soaring cost of foreign debt servicing, combined with a growing budget deficit, underscores the urgent need for fiscal reforms. Analysts have called for a strategic approach to debt management, including improving revenue mobilization, curbing wasteful expenditure, and addressing inefficiencies in the oil sector.