Nvidia has privately notified Chinese clients of its intention to initiate shipments of its advanced H200 AI chips before the Lunar New Year holiday, which commences on February 17, 2026, according to three sources with direct knowledge of the matter who spoke to Reuters.

The initial batches would be fulfilled from existing inventory, comprising 5,000 to 10,000 chip modules—translating to roughly 40,000 to 80,000 individual H200 processors—potentially valued in the hundreds of millions given current market pricing.

In parallel, the U.S. semiconductor leader has outlined plans to ramp up H200 production capacity, with new order slots expected to open in the second quarter of 2026 to accommodate sustained demand.

However, substantial uncertainties loom large: Beijing has yet to grant import approvals for the H200, and the proposed timeline could slip based on regulatory decisions from Chinese authorities.

“The whole plan is contingent on government approval,” one source emphasized. “Nothing is certain until we get the official go-ahead.”

Nvidia and China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), which oversees semiconductor imports, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The prospective shipments represent a pivotal milestone, marking the first legal deliveries of the H200 to China since President Donald Trump’s early December announcement permitting such sales under a revamped U.S. export framework.

Trump’s policy imposes a 25% fee on transactions, collected by the U.S. government, while mandating Commerce Department vetting of “approved customers” to mitigate national security risks.

This stands in stark contrast to the Biden administration’s stringent bans on advanced AI chips to China, enacted in October 2022 and expanded thereafter, which prohibited exports of any processors matching or exceeding the Nvidia A100’s capabilities, citing fears of bolstering Beijing’s military AI advancements.

The Trump administration’s rationale posits that controlled sales will keep Chinese entities “addicted” to U.S. technology, diminishing incentives for domestic rivals like Huawei to accelerate their own developments, thereby preserving American leadership in AI.

An inter-agency review of license applications, involving the Commerce, State, Energy, and Defense Departments, was initiated last week to evaluate these sales, with a 30-day window for agency input before a final presidential decision.

U.S. lawmakers have demanded transparency in this process, urging disclosure of license reviews to ensure accountability.

The H200, a cornerstone of Nvidia’s previous-generation Hopper architecture, boasts 141 GB of high-bandwidth HBM3e memory, 4.8 TB/s bandwidth, and superior tensor performance, making it ideal for large-scale AI training and inference.

It significantly outperforms the H20, Nvidia’s export-compliant variant for China, by an estimated six times in key metrics, offering a vital boost for applications in generative AI and data centers.

Although eclipsed by the newer Blackwell and upcoming Rubin lines—Nvidia’s production priorities—the H200’s scarcity has not diminished its appeal in global markets.

Major Chinese firms, including Alibaba Group, ByteDance (parent of TikTok), Tencent, and Baidu, have voiced keen interest, positioning the H200 as a game-changer for their AI ambitions amid a domestic market projected to exceed $100 billion in AI spending by 2027.

Beijing’s response, however, remains guarded: Emergency internal meetings this month have explored countermeasures, such as mandating bundled purchases where each H200 must be paired with a specified ratio of indigenous chips to foster local innovation.

China’s drive for semiconductor self-sufficiency is intensifying, with Huawei’s Ascend 910C—boasting 12,032 TPP (tensor processing power) and 3.2 TB/s memory bandwidth—falling short of the H200’s 15,840 TPP and 4.8 TB/s, per industry benchmarks.

Upcoming models like the Ascend 960, slated for 2027, aim to bridge this gap, supported by state subsidies exceeding $50 billion in 2025 alone.

In the interim, grey-market smuggling has provided limited access to restricted Nvidia hardware, with U.S. enforcers recently dismantling networks involving over $160 million in illicit shipments.

Critics in Washington, including former officials and bipartisan lawmakers, decry the policy as a “disastrous” concession that could erode U.S. advantages, potentially fueling China’s military AI programs.

Market sentiment has been buoyed, with Nvidia shares rising intermittently on the news, though capped by lingering uncertainties.

The resolution will depend on swift bilateral approvals, challenging Trump’s approach of monetizing U.S. tech exports while managing the escalating U.S.-China AI rivalry.

Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison has moved to personally shore up Paramount Skydance’s bid for Warner Bros Discovery, offering a $40.4 billion personal guarantee in an effort to revive confidence in the deal and pull the Hollywood studio away from a rival offer by Netflix.

The guarantee, disclosed in a filing on Monday, is aimed squarely at addressing concerns raised by the Warner Bros board over Paramount’s financing and the absence of full backing from the Ellison family. Those doubts had pushed Warner Bros closer to accepting a competing cash-and-stock proposal from Netflix for its prized film and television assets.

News of the revised terms lifted shares across the sector. Warner Bros stock rose about 3%, while Paramount climbed more than 7%.

Paramount said the amended structure does not alter its headline offer of $30 per share in cash, even as the contest for control of one of Hollywood’s most valuable content libraries intensifies. Control of Warner Bros’ film franchises, television catalogue, and production capabilities is widely seen as a decisive advantage in the increasingly crowded streaming market.

Under the revised terms, Ellison has also agreed not to revoke the family trust or transfer its assets while the transaction remains pending, a concession designed to further reassure shareholders about the durability of the funding package. Paramount also raised its regulatory reverse termination fee to $5.8 billion from $5 billion, matching the protection offered under the Netflix deal, and extended the expiration date of its tender offer to January 21, 2026.

Despite the added assurances, some analysts remain skeptical that the changes will materially shift shareholder sentiment.

“I doubt many Warner Bros shareholders that are on the fence or planning to vote no were holding out due to issues the revised bid addresses such as a guarantee from Larry Ellison on the funding front,” said Seth Shafer, a principal analyst at S&P Global.

The revised bid follows Warner Bros’ earlier move to urge shareholders to reject Paramount’s $108.4 billion proposal for the entire company, including its cable television assets. At the time, Warner Bros cited uncertainty around financing and the lack of a comprehensive Ellison family guarantee as key weaknesses in the offer.

Still, the door has not been fully closed. Some Warner Bros investors, including Harris Associates, the company’s fifth-largest shareholder, have said they would consider a revised Paramount bid if it offered superior terms and resolved concerns around deal structure and execution.

Under the Netflix agreement, Warner Bros would owe Netflix a $2.8 billion breakup fee if it were to abandon that deal in favor of Paramount. For Netflix, acquiring Warner Bros would significantly deepen its content library and extend its dominance in streaming, creating a combined platform with an estimated 428 million subscribers worldwide.

Paramount, for its part, is positioning the deal as a strategic counterweight to Netflix’s scale, arguing that a combined Paramount–Warner Bros studio would be better placed to compete with industry leaders and extract more value from theatrical releases, television distribution, and streaming.

Beyond shareholder approval, regulatory scrutiny looms as the most formidable obstacle. Any transaction would face close examination by antitrust authorities in the United States and Europe, amid growing political resistance to consolidation in the media industry.

Lawmakers from both major U.S. parties have already raised concerns, and President Donald Trump has said he plans to weigh in on the proposed deals. A merger between Paramount and Warner Bros would create a studio larger than Disney and unite two major television operators, prompting some Democratic senators to warn that such a combination could give a single company control over “almost everything Americans watch on TV.”

A Netflix–Warner Bros tie-up would raise a different set of alarms. While Netflix has argued that the deal would benefit consumers through bundled offerings and lower costs, critics say it would further entrench Netflix’s market power at a time when competition in streaming is already under strain. Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos has said he is confident regulators would approve the deal, adding that it would avoid job cuts in an industry grappling with uneven box-office performance.

As the battle plays out, Ellison’s personal guarantee has added a fresh twist to the deal. However, it remains unclear whether the move is enough to tilt shareholders and regulators away from Netflix.

China has escalated its trade confrontation with the European Union by announcing provisional anti-subsidy tariffs of up to 42.7% on select dairy imports from the bloc, effective from December 23, following a preliminary investigation that concluded EU subsidies have inflicted “substantial damage” on its domestic dairy sector.

The move, detailed in a statement from the Ministry of Commerce, targets a range of products including fresh and processed cheeses, blue-veined varieties such as France’s renowned Roquefort—aged in the caves of Roquefort-sur-Soulzon—curd, and certain milk and cream with fat content exceeding 10%.

Notably, infant formula, a high-value export category, has been spared, providing some relief to major players like Danone and Nestlé.

Tariff rates are tiered based on cooperation during the probe: around 60 participating companies, including Denmark’s Arla Foods (known for brands like Lurpak and Castello) and Ireland’s Kerry Group, will face duties between 21.9% and 29.7%, while non-cooperators are slapped with the maximum 42.7%.

Most firms are expected to pay around 30%, according to industry estimates.

The investigation, initiated in August 2024, scrutinized subsidies under the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and national schemes, which Beijing claims have enabled unfair pricing amid China’s domestic challenges, like a milk oversupply, declining prices, and shifting consumer demand driven by an aging population and economic slowdown.

This action fits into a broader pattern of retaliatory measures, sparked by the EU’s October 2024 imposition of up to 45.3% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) after a year-long anti-subsidy probe that found state aid distorted competition.

Beijing has since targeted other EU exports, including brandy (with provisional duties up to 34.9% in July 2025, later challenged by the EU at the World Trade Organization) and pork.

Just last week, China finalized pork tariffs at 4.9% to 19.8% for five years—significantly lower than September’s provisional 62.4%—potentially signaling room for negotiation amid ongoing talks.

Analysts view the dairy tariffs as calibrated pressure, exempting sensitive items while hitting symbolic EU strengths like French cheeses and Irish milk powders.

Economically, the tariffs could disrupt $589 million in annual EU dairy exports to China (stable from 2023), representing about 5% of the bloc’s total dairy shipments but a larger share for specific nations.

Ireland, a top supplier of milk powders and cheeses, stands to lose the most, with exports valued at over €200 million annually; France follows with its premium cheeses like Roquefort and Camembert, potentially facing €150 million in hits.

Denmark and the Netherlands, key players via Arla and FrieslandCampina, could see combined losses exceeding €100 million.

For China, the measures bolster domestic giants like Mengniu and Yili, which have invested billions in modernizing farms but struggle with overcapacity—producing 45 million tons of milk annually amid stagnating consumption.

Shares in Mengniu briefly climbed before closing flat, reflecting optimism for local market share gains.

Stakeholder reactions have been swift and critical. The European Commission labeled the tariffs “unjustified and unwarranted,” based on “questionable allegations and insufficient evidence,” and vowed to submit detailed comments while pursuing dialogue.

Industry voices echoed dismay: Conor Mulvihill of Dairy Industry Ireland called dairy a “political pawn” in the EV spat, while Henrik Damholt Jorgensen of the Danish Dairy Board urged negotiations to avert long-term harm.

French producers, already reeling from domestic challenges like labor shortages, fear rerouting to less lucrative markets like New Zealand or the U.S.

Broader implications highlight deepening EU-China trade fissures. China’s trade surplus with the EU has ballooned to a record $300 billion in 2025, more than double imports, fueling accusations of dumping and overcapacity.

French President Emmanuel Macron, in recent interviews, has warned of Europe’s “life or death” industrial moment, labeling China’s surplus “untenable” and urging investments in the EU to avoid further barriers.

Dutch officials have echoed concerns over Beijing’s retaliatory tactics, such as export restrictions on chips.

As provisional measures, these tariffs could be adjusted in a final ruling expected by mid-2026, similar to the pork case, but analysts warn of potential escalation into luxury goods or autos if EV talks stall.