China signaled confidence in its energy security on Monday as the war involving Iran disrupts oil flows through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a development that analysts say may reduce the likelihood of Beijing cooperating with Washington to stabilize the critical waterway.
Officials in Beijing said the country has sufficient energy resources to absorb external shocks, even as global oil markets reel from supply disruptions caused by the conflict.
Speaking at a briefing, Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics of China, said China’s energy supply remained “relatively strong,” giving the country a “relatively good” foundation to deal with volatility in global markets.
New data released by the agency showed China’s domestic crude production rose 1.9% year-on-year to 35.73 million metric tons in the January–February period, part of a broader push by Beijing to strengthen domestic supply.
The comments came as oil prices surged above $100 per barrel, approaching four-year highs, after disruptions to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a vital chokepoint through which about a fifth of the world’s oil trade normally passes.
The disruption has prompted calls from Donald Trump for Beijing to help restore oil shipments through the waterway.
According to the Financial Times, Trump said China should assist in efforts to reopen the route before his planned trip to Beijing later this month, warning he might reconsider the visit depending on developments.
However, analysts say Beijing may have little incentive to intervene diplomatically or militarily, particularly if Chinese leaders view the crisis as a consequence of a broader confrontation involving the United States and its regional ally, Israel.
From Beijing’s perspective, the conflict is widely interpreted as a U.S.–Israeli campaign against Iran, a country with which China maintains deep economic and energy ties. In that context, China’s message that its energy supplies remain secure may signal that it is prepared to ride out the disruption rather than assist Washington in stabilizing the shipping route.
Part of Beijing’s confidence stems from the scale of its strategic oil reserves and diversified energy mix. Analysts estimate China holds roughly 1.2 billion barrels of crude in onshore storage — among the largest strategic reserves globally. At current consumption levels, those stockpiles could cover three to four months of demand if imports were significantly curtailed.
In addition, the country has steadily expanded domestic production while maintaining long-term supply agreements with multiple oil exporters. While Trump has argued that China receives around 90% of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz, energy analysts say that figure significantly overstates Beijing’s dependence on the route.
Current estimates suggest roughly 40% to 50% of China’s seaborne crude imports pass through the strait. When measured against China’s total energy consumption — which includes coal, natural gas, renewables, and domestic production — oil shipments through Hormuz represent only about 6.6% of the overall energy supply.
Those numbers suggest that while the waterway is important, China is less exposed than some other major importers.
Not Immune To The Shock
Even so, analysts caution that China is far from insulated from the consequences of a prolonged conflict. A sustained disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would drive oil prices higher worldwide, raising energy costs for importers across Asia, including China.
Higher crude prices can ripple through China’s manufacturing sector, transport system, and industrial supply chains, potentially putting pressure on inflation and economic growth. The country also remains heavily dependent on imported oil overall, meaning prolonged supply disruptions could eventually strain reserves if alternative supply routes cannot fully compensate.
The geopolitical complexity of the situation is further illustrated by the continued flow of Iranian oil to China. Despite the disruption in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has shipped more than 11 million barrels of crude to China since the conflict began more than two weeks ago.
The ongoing trade suggests Beijing may prioritize maintaining its energy relationship with Iran rather than joining Western efforts to pressure Tehran over the conflict.
Taiwan Tensions Raise New Geopolitical Questions
The energy crisis is also unfolding alongside rising military tensions in East Asia. Reports indicate Chinese forces recently conducted large-scale exercises around Taiwan, involving dozens of aircraft and multiple naval vessels.
While such drills are not uncommon, some geopolitical analysts believe the timing may be connected to the broader confrontation involving Iran. In that view, Beijing’s actions could be designed to send a strategic signal: that instability in one region of the global economy could be matched by pressure in another.
Taiwan occupies a critical position in the global technology supply chain as the home of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s largest contract chipmaker. The island produces the advanced semiconductors that power smartphones, data centers, artificial intelligence systems, and much of the modern digital economy.
Any serious disruption to Taiwan’s semiconductor industry would have far-reaching consequences for global markets, including the United States.
Some analysts, therefore, interpret China’s maneuvers as a demonstration of the interconnected vulnerabilities in the global economy: oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz on one hand, and semiconductor production concentrated in Taiwan on the other.
Together, the Persian Gulf and Taiwan represent two of the most critical chokepoints in the global economic system. The Strait of Hormuz sits at the center of global energy supply, while Taiwan anchors the world’s most advanced semiconductor manufacturing capacity.
Tensions in both regions simultaneously raise the stakes for global markets already facing rising geopolitical risks. While China’s energy reserves and diversified supply currently provide a cushion against immediate disruptions from the Iran war, the broader geopolitical developments suggest Beijing may be making a calculated move in Taiwan that will impact the U.S.
China’s move is believed to be playing a scenario: If you tamper with my oil supply, I will tank your economy that is surviving because of high valuations created by the chip industry headquartered in Taiwan.
