A president in an east African country partly won an election attacking Dangote Cement. As the insult and attack continued, Dangote shut down a $500 million cement factory: “Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, has shut down his $500 million factory in Tanzania owing to high business costs and a fall out with the government … Dangote was invited to Tanzania to do business by former President Jakaya Kikwete in 2014 and was promised access to cheap natural gas to power the factory.”

When Dangote left, everyone expected the president to replace him with the promised “new investors”. Months came and went, no new investor was licensed. Despite opening the country to imports, prices of cement went up and builders complained. In the end, the president came to Nigeria, and asked Alhaji to return, while promising to support the plant with cheap energy. Dangote returned, prices of cement went down, and everyone rejoiced.

Good People, Nigeria must be careful with Aliko Dangote. He is one of the few businessmen in Africa that can exert the Conglomerate Tax in Africa, as I wrote in my book – The Dangote System: Techniques for Building Conglomerates. He has a clear path: the African free trade agreement, AfCFTA, can work for Dangote and his empire, and he can play that agreement against Nigeria (make in one country, sell anywhere with minimal tariff).

Yes ohh, we’re reading that he is in Gabon on the president’s invitation (see photo), and they’re discussing interests to set up cement, fertilizer, etc factories there. If he closes the Nigerian plants, we will lose all the jobs and still use Dangote Cement, because of AfCFTA!

Why? Making Dangote Cement is cheaper in Tanzania, Ethiopia, etc because those countries subsidize his operations via cheap electricity. In Nigeria, Dangote produces his own electricity  – about 40% of the total electricity consumed in Nigeria. This is the reason why his cement is slightly cheaper in Ethiopia, etc; these countries pay his electricity bills unlike in Nigeria where he runs his own NEPA as a private national grid!

Nigeria: be careful before we annoy this tiger. He can bite badly.

The recent announcement of President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 US Presidential Race has sent shockwaves through the political landscape, marking a significant shift in the trajectory of American politics. This unprecedented move has opened up a wide array of implications for the Democratic Party, the upcoming election, and the international community.

The immediate effect of President Biden’s decision is the introduction of a new dynamic within the Democratic Party. With Biden endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris, the party is now faced with the task of rallying behind a new leader in a short span of time. Political analysts are weighing in on the potential outcomes of this sudden change.

Some view it as an opportunity for the Democrats to showcase their depth of talent and to bring fresh energy into their campaign. Others express concern over the possibility of internal divisions, drawing parallels with historical precedents where sudden shifts have led to tumultuous outcomes.

Here are some of the key implications for other Democratic candidates:

Opportunity for New Leadership: Biden’s withdrawal opens the door for new or previously lesser-known Democratic candidates to step into the spotlight. This could be a chance for these individuals to present fresh ideas and perspectives to the electorate.

Redefining the Campaign Narrative: With the incumbent president out of the race, other Democratic candidates will need to redefine their campaign narratives. They must distinguish themselves not only from the Republican opposition but also from the policies and legacy of President Biden.

Increased Scrutiny and Pressure: Candidates who decide to run will face increased scrutiny from both the public and the media. They will need to demonstrate their capability to lead and address national issues, all while under the pressure of a shortened campaign timeline.

Fundraising Challenges: Biden’s withdrawal could lead to a reshuffling of donor support. Candidates will need to act quickly to secure funding and endorsements to sustain their campaigns.

Unity or Division: The Democratic Party must navigate this transition carefully to maintain unity. The potential for division is high, as different factions within the party may rally behind different candidates, leading to a fragmented base.

Impact on Down-Ballot Races: The change in the presidential ticket could have downstream effects on other races. Democratic candidates at all levels will need to adjust their strategies in response to the new dynamics at the top of the ticket.

From a strategic standpoint, Biden’s withdrawal could be seen as a move to consolidate the Democratic base and present a united front against the Republican nominee. The endorsement of Vice President Harris suggests a strategic alignment within the party, aiming to maintain continuity of policy and vision. However, this also raises questions about the open democratic process and whether the quick consolidation around a single candidate might alienate some voters.

On the international stage, Biden’s withdrawal introduces elements of uncertainty, particularly concerning US foreign policy. Allies and adversaries alike are closely monitoring the situation to understand how this might affect international relations and ongoing diplomatic efforts. For instance, the situation in Ukraine, which has been a focal point of Biden’s foreign policy, may face new challenges as the country seeks reassurances about the continuity of support from the United States.

Financial markets, too, are reacting to the news, with investors considering the implications of a potential shift in economic policies depending on the election’s outcome. The uncertainty surrounding the election could lead to volatility as markets attempt to price in the various possible scenarios.

President Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race is a historic event with far-reaching consequences. It has set the stage for a highly unpredictable election season, with potential impacts on domestic politics, international relations, and financial markets. As the Democratic Party navigates this new terrain, the coming months will be critical in shaping the future direction of the United States. The world watches with bated breath as American democracy unfolds in real-time, presenting a unique moment in its political history.