SoftBank Group Corp. is in advanced discussions with banks to secure a bridge loan of up to $40 billion, primarily to finance its deepening investment in OpenAI, according to a Bloomberg News report, citing people familiar with the matter.

The facility, which would mark SoftBank’s largest-ever borrowing denominated solely in U.S. dollars, is structured with a 12-month tenor and is being underwritten by four lenders, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. Talks remain ongoing, and terms could still evolve, the report noted. The loan comes on the heels of SoftBank’s completion of a $41 billion investment in OpenAI, finalized in December 2025, which has positioned the Japanese conglomerate as the AI startup’s largest financial backer with an approximately 11% ownership stake.

The commitment was first announced in March 2025, when SoftBank agreed to invest up to $40 billion in a for-profit subsidiary of OpenAI, structured as a combination of direct capital from SoftBank Vision Fund 2 (SVF2) and syndicated co-investments from third-party participants. The funding was executed in two closings. The first, in April 2025, involved $7.5 billion through SVF2. The second closing, completed December 26, 2025, added $22.5 billion from SVF2, plus an oversubscribed $11 billion from co-investors, bringing the total to $41 billion.

This exceeded the initial $40 billion pledge, reflecting strong external demand and SoftBank’s confidence in OpenAI’s trajectory. SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son has described the OpenAI bet as central to his “all-in” strategy on artificial intelligence, viewing the company as a linchpin in the emerging “Intelligence Revolution.” The investment aligns with Son’s long-term vision of AI as a transformative force, building on SoftBank’s earlier stakes in Arm Holdings (ARM), Alibaba (BABA), and other tech giants.

OpenAI’s latest funding round valued the company at $840 billion post-money, a figure that could climb to $1 trillion in an anticipated initial public offering (IPO) later in 2026, according to Reuters reporting from 2025. To fund the first tranche of the OpenAI investment, SoftBank reportedly relied on an $8 billion bridge loan, as it lacked sufficient cash on hand at the time.

Sources indicate the company may draw on up to $11.5 billion in undrawn margin loans backed by its stake in Arm Holdings to cover portions of the remaining commitment. This reliance on leverage has raised some investor concerns, with  SoftBank’s credit default swaps (CDS) spreads widening in recent months amid broader market volatility in AI-related assets.

S&P Global Ratings has warned that SoftBank’s increasing leverage and concentration of assets around OpenAI could pressure liquidity metrics and credit spreads if market conditions deteriorate. The company’s debt-to-equity ratio has climbed in recent quarters, driven by aggressive AI bets, though strong performance from Arm (whose shares have risen 65% since its 2023 IPO) has provided a buffer.

Analysts at Jefferies noted in a February 2026 report that SoftBank’s finances remain “manageable” but emphasized the need for disciplined capital allocation to avoid overextension.

OpenAI’s IPO preparations are well underway, with the company raising $110 billion in its latest round from investors including SoftBank ($30 billion), Nvidia ($30 billion), and Amazon ($50 billion). The funds are earmarked for expanding AI research, data center infrastructure, and global operations. Reuters reported in January 2026 that OpenAI is targeting a $1 trillion valuation for its public debut, which would make it one of the most valuable listings in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco’s 2019 IPO.

SoftBank’s $41 billion stake, now valued at over $90 billion based on OpenAI’s latest post-money valuation, represents a substantial unrealized gain, underscoring the success of Son’s AI pivot after earlier Vision Fund setbacks. The bridge loan would provide immediate liquidity to fulfill commitments without liquidating other holdings, such as Arm shares, which Son has described as “core” to SoftBank’s portfolio.

The investment, however, has met some controversy. In 2025, MIT Sloan professor Michael Cusumano characterized Nvidia’s parallel $30 billion commitment as “kind of a wash,” noting the circular nature of AI investments where chipmakers fund model developers who, in turn, purchase massive volumes of GPUs. SoftBank’s loan-backed approach adds another layer of financial engineering to this ecosystem, potentially amplifying returns but also risks if AI adoption slows or valuations correct.

Market reaction to the Bloomberg report was muted Tuesday, with SoftBank shares dipping modestly in Tokyo trading amid broader Asia-Pacific weakness driven by Middle East tensions. Investors appear focused on SoftBank’s ability to manage leverage while capitalizing on OpenAI’s growth — especially with the IPO on the horizon.

The $40 billion facility, if completed, would yield the unprecedented scale of capital required to fuel the AI boom, and it underlines SoftBank’s willingness to leverage its balance sheet aggressively. It also highlights the symbiotic relationship between infrastructure providers like Nvidia and model builders like OpenAI, with SoftBank acting as a key financier, bridging the two.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) held firm on Friday and was headed for its sharpest weekly gain in more than a year as intensifying hostilities in the Middle East pushed investors toward traditional safe-haven assets.

Demand for the greenback surged as the conflict between Israel and Iran widened into a broader regional confrontation, sending oil prices sharply higher and raising concerns about a fresh wave of global inflation. Currencies tied to economies dependent on imported energy — including the Euro and Japanese Yen — remained under pressure as investors recalibrated expectations for monetary policy across major central banks.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies, rose to around 99.14, putting it on course for a weekly gain of roughly 1.5% — the strongest since November 2024. The euro slipped about 0.16% to $1.159 and was set for its steepest weekly decline since September 2022, while the yen weakened to around 157.77 per dollar. British Pound Sterling also edged lower to roughly $1.3347.

The currency moves highlight how quickly global markets have been reshaped by the war’s economic fallout. What began as hopes for a contained confrontation has evolved into a wider regional escalation that is now threatening global energy supply chains and forcing traders to reassess the trajectory of interest rates worldwide.

Fresh uncertainty gripped markets after heavy military exchanges between the two sides. Israeli forces launched extensive air strikes on Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut and began what officials described as a “broad-scale” wave of attacks targeting infrastructure in Tehran. Iran responded by saying it had fired missiles at the heart of Tel Aviv.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump signaled a more aggressive posture from Washington. The U.S. president said he wanted a role in choosing Iran’s next head of state after joint U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, during the early phase of the conflict. Trump also encouraged Iranian Kurdish groups based in Iraq to intensify pressure on Tehran, a move that analysts say risks widening the war even further.

Energy, The Major Concern

For financial markets, the dominant concern has become energy.

Iran has reportedly expanded its retaliation beyond direct military targets, striking or threatening oil infrastructure across the region. Energy installations linked to producers in Saudi Arabia and Qatar have been targeted, heightening fears that the conflict could severely disrupt supplies from the world’s most important oil-exporting region.

Those fears have already pushed crude prices sharply higher and injected fresh volatility into currency markets. Analysts say the extent of the energy shock will determine how long the dollar’s rally lasts.

Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG, said the outlook for the greenback hinges largely on how severely energy prices surge.

“The key driver will ultimately be the scale of the energy price shock,” Hardman said. “If we were to see oil prices continue to jump higher and remain higher for longer, that would be the most supportive outcome for a stronger dollar.”

Conversely, he said, a cooling of the conflict that leads to a retreat in crude prices could quickly unwind some of the dollar’s gains.

The surge in oil has also begun reshaping expectations for global monetary policy. Higher energy costs typically feed directly into inflation, complicating efforts by central banks that had been preparing to ease interest rates after months of moderating price pressures.

Traders have already pushed back expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. According to the CME Group FedWatch tool, the probability of a June rate cut has dropped to roughly 34%.

Markets have also scaled back expectations for easing by the Bank of England, while money markets have even begun pricing in the possibility that the European Central Bank could raise rates again later this year if inflation surges due to energy costs.

Currency traders say the shift in the macroeconomic backdrop has been abrupt. Only weeks ago, many investors were preparing for synchronized monetary easing across major economies as inflation cooled. The sudden spike in oil has complicated that narrative and forced markets to reassess the global outlook.

Nathan Swami, head of FX trading for Japan, Asia North, and Australia at Citigroup in Singapore, said clients have broadly moved to cut exposure to riskier currencies.

“Broadly speaking, we are seeing most clients reduce risk across both G10 and EM currencies,” he said.

The shift reflects a wider retreat from risk assets. Equities and bonds have both come under pressure during the week’s volatile trading sessions. Even traditional safe-haven assets such as gold have experienced bouts of selling as investors raise cash and rotate toward the dollar.

Stability, When?

Energy security concerns are also intensifying debate over the effectiveness of Western military efforts to stabilize shipping routes and oil supply infrastructure. The U.S. Navy and allied forces have been considering expanded escort operations for tankers moving through the region’s key maritime corridors, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints.

Yet many analysts doubt that naval protection alone will prevent the market disruption already unfolding.

Given how rapidly the conflict has escalated — and with Iran targeting energy infrastructure across multiple Gulf states — market participants say escort operations may do little to prevent an oil shock if the fighting continues to widen.

Oil facilities scattered across the Gulf remain difficult to fully protect from missile and drone attacks, and even temporary disruptions could send energy prices significantly higher. For major importing economies in Europe and Asia, that scenario would amplify inflation pressures just as central banks had hoped to begin loosening policy.

The resulting dynamic has strengthened the dollar’s appeal. Historically, the U.S. currency tends to rally during periods of geopolitical turmoil because of its status as the world’s primary reserve currency and the depth of American financial markets.

Investors will also be watching incoming U.S. economic data for clues about how resilient the American economy remains amid the turmoil. Markets are awaiting February’s employment report, which economists surveyed by Reuters expect to show that nonfarm payrolls increased by around 59,000 jobs after January’s gain of 130,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.3%.

Hardman said a stronger-than-expected jobs report could amplify the dollar’s rally by forcing markets to further dial back expectations for interest-rate cuts. A robust labor reading could trigger additional selling in global bond markets and push the dollar even higher as investors adjust to the prospect of tighter financial conditions.

Recent labor indicators have already suggested resilience. Data released Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits held steady last week, while layoffs declined sharply in February — signs that the job market remains relatively stable.

Beyond currencies, the geopolitical turmoil has also spilled into digital asset markets.

Bitcoin slipped about 0.96% to roughly $70,459, while Ether dropped about 1.21% to near $2,055 as investors trimmed exposure to volatile assets amid the uncertainty.

For now, currency strategists say the trajectory of the war, particularly its impact on global energy supply, will remain the dominant force shaping markets. If the conflict broadens further and oil infrastructure across the Gulf continues to come under attack, analysts warn that the world could be facing a new energy shock with wide-ranging consequences for inflation, interest rates, and the global financial system.