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Home Blog Page 3296

Re-energizing the Buckled Resourceful Nation

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It was very painful reading the New York Times which ran a cover piece on Nigeria, titled “A resourceful nation buckles”. This section is tough for a nation:

“The pain is widespread. Unions strike to protest salaries of around $20 a month. People die in stampedes, desperate for free sacks of rice. Hospitals are overrun with women wracked by spasms from calcium deficiencies. The crisis is largely believed to be rooted in two major changes implemented by a president elected 15 months ago: the partial removal of fuel subsidies and the floating of the currency, which together have caused major price rises.”

Good People, there is no need to fight the press. We need to respond with a better outcome, and that means improving the state of the economy. That said, Nigeria can stop this bleeding tomorrow by announcing that the Naira is now pegged at N1,000/$1 and once that is done, you attain equilibrium making it possible for companies to operate. What we have now is too stochastic that no meaningful business modeling can happen, and that is why this bleeding is escalating.

Focusing on the two factors the Times noted, I have provided suggestions in the past:

Reverse Naira Floating: The biggest challenge today is not that the Naira is exchanging at N1,500 or N1,400 to US$1, the issue is that the volatility will make it impossible for companies to plan and investors to invest. The exchange rate stresses the traders and speculators, but for investors, volatility kills their plans. So, pegging Naira will deal with that volatility immediately.

Stabilize Energy Cost. Nigeria must bring full subsidy for industrial customers even as it allows commercial and residential to pay the full rates. Understand that if we do no deepen the industrial base, the vicious cycle will continue. So, to tame inflation and help companies make things, we need to assist them on energy costs which have gone up significantly. But do not give them money, use rebates so that only REAL industrial customers will benefit. 

Comment on Feed

Comment: We can’t afford to subsidize the dollars. Nigerians wasted the opportunity to spend dollars on everything except productivity. We cannot go back to bleeding our treasury without productivity. If we had exports today we would be here. You failed to mention how to fund $ subsidy.

My Response: The black market rate was about N700/$ before the floating.  Largely, the government was not funding the black market rate. Today, the “official nafem” rate is about N1,300 while the new black market rate is at N1,500. Does it occur to you that Nigeria was better at that N700/$ which was “unofficial” instead of the official which is now N1,300. In other words, if the equilibrium was not disturbed, you would have saved N600/$ compared to the official rate today.

Now, by moving the equilibrium, billions of corporate tax vapourised. Using MTN Nigeria; it paid about N100 billion in tax in 2022 (see the PBT and PAT). After the float, MTN Nigeria lost (pre tax) N575.69 billion in 3 months! (Q1 2024). So, if you run the numbers, since the floating is not stabilizing the economy, Nigeria has lost those tax revenues. What does it mean? Nigeria has to find money to cover what those tax revenues would have done. The number is massive with 800 companies under.

Simply, you may not be funding and defending Naira (as you noted)  but now you have to find money to cover corporate tax  losses the policy triggered. I do not even concede that Naira had to be defended (in the past) because there was no reason for that.

Remember: a bird which leaves the ground and perches on the ant-hill is still on the ground. Nigeria may not be defending Naira but today is defending inflation, corporate tax loss, minimum wage, etc which might NOT have happened (at scale) without the policies.

A Look at China’s Armed Robot Dogs [video]

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In recent years, the intersection of robotics and military technology has led to significant advancements in unmanned systems. One of the latest developments in this field is the introduction of armed robotic dogs by China’s military. These machines represent a new era in the technology-driven arms race, showcasing the potential for robotics to play a crucial role in future combat scenarios.

The robotic dogs, unveiled during a joint military exercise with Cambodia, are equipped with machine guns and are designed to perform various military tasks, including reconnaissance and combat support. The robots’ design and capabilities are reminiscent of science fiction, yet they are very much a reality in today’s rapidly evolving military landscape.

China’s display of these robots is not just a demonstration of technological prowess but also a strategic move in the global competition for military dominance. The United States and other nations have also been exploring similar technologies, indicating a trend towards increased automation in warfare.

The use of such robots raises important questions about the future of warfare and the ethical implications of autonomous weapon systems. As these machines become more sophisticated and capable of making decisions, the line between human and machine control in combat situations becomes increasingly blurred. This shift necessitates a discussion on the rules of engagement and the legal frameworks governing the use of autonomous weapons.

The technical specifications of these robotic dogs reveal their sophistication and potential on the battlefield. One model is equipped with an assault rifle and weighs approximately 50 kg, designed primarily for direct combat roles. Another lighter variant, weighing around 15 kg, is tailored for reconnaissance missions. Both models are outfitted with a 4D wide-angle perception system, enabling them to navigate and respond to their surroundings effectively.

These robotic dogs are capable of mimicking the movements of real dogs, including walking, hopping, lying down, and moving backward. This agility allows them to be versatile participants in various military scenarios, from leading infantry units in urban assault simulations to performing complex drills.

The integration of off-the-shelf technology with standard military equipment, such as the QBZ-95 assault rifle, indicates a strategic approach to leveraging existing technologies for rapid deployment and scalability. The robotic dogs’ ability to carry out tasks autonomously or under remote control by an operator adds a layer of tactical flexibility to military operations.

Moreover, the deployment of robotic dogs in military operations could potentially change the dynamics of combat, offering advantages such as reduced risk to human soldiers and increased operational efficiency. However, it also poses challenges in terms of command and control, as well as the potential for unforeseen consequences in complex combat environments.

As the world watches these developments unfold, it is clear that the integration of robotics into military strategy is not a question of if but when. The armed robotic dogs are a testament to the changing face of warfare and the ongoing innovation in military technology. As nations continue to invest in and develop these systems, it is imperative to consider the broader implications for international security and the rules of war.

The conversation around armed robotic dogs is just beginning, and it will undoubtedly continue to evolve as these technologies advance. It is a topic that not only concerns military strategists and technologists but also policymakers, ethicists, and the general public. The future of warfare is being shaped by these innovations, and it is crucial to engage in thoughtful discourse on how to navigate this new terrain responsibly.

Investments in Africa is Taking a New Shape

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Investments in Africa are indeed taking a new shape, reflecting a dynamic and evolving landscape that promises to redefine the continent’s economic future. The year 2023 marked a significant surge in foreign direct investment (FDI), with Africa attracting $194 billion and creating 154,000 jobs. Leading the investment influx were the UAE, France, the UK, India, and the US, with Egypt and South Africa emerging as top recipients.

The investment trends shaping Africa’s future are diverse and transformative. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is one such trend, offering opportunities for rapid advances across various industries. While direct investment in AI technology may not be the focus, its indirect impact on technology-driven companies is undeniable. AI’s potential to optimize agricultural processes, enhance healthcare delivery, and drive financial inclusion is particularly noteworthy.

Connectivity is another key driver, with the expansion of 4G and the advent of 5G networks transforming business operations and daily activities. This technological leap is enabling African businesses to launch new services at unprecedented speeds, fostering ground-breaking innovations that could lead to greater inclusion.

One of the most significant investments is in the realm of solar energy. For instance, the Benban Solar Park in Egypt, one of the largest in the world, is set to provide clean energy to hundreds of thousands of homes. Similarly, Morocco’s Noor Complex is one of the world’s largest concentrated solar power plants, contributing significantly to the country’s goal of 42% renewable energy by 2020.

Wind energy is also a growing sector, with projects like Lake Turkana Wind Power in Kenya, which is the largest wind farm in Africa, providing 310 MW of power to the national grid. South Africa is not far behind, with the Jeffreys Bay Wind Farm and the Gouda Wind Facility contributing to the country’s renewable energy mix.

Africa is witnessing a transformative era in investment, with 2024 marking a significant shift in the landscape. The continent, rich in
2023 was a landmark year for FDI in Africa, with the continent attracting $194 billion, creating numerous job opportunities. Leading investors from the UAE, France, the UK, India, China, Russia and the US have shown confidence in Africa’s growth trajectory, focusing on sectors like renewable energy and digital technology.

The investment landscape in Africa is evolving, with sectors such as telecommunications, consumer products, and industrials receiving significant FDI in the past decade. Now, factors like mobile penetration, the aftermath of COVID-19, and the growing demand for energy are paving the way for new investment avenues.

The U.S. and Russian governments are taking steps to support investors in parts of Africa, recognizing the continent’s potential for mass industrialization and the rapid growth of its young population. Initiatives are in place to bridge the infrastructure gap in parts of Africa.

The last decade has seen investments flow into telecommunications, consumer products, and industrials. However, new dynamics such as mobile penetration, the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, and growing energy demands are paving the way for opportunities in emerging sectors.

The U.S. government’s unprecedented steps to support investors, coupled with Africa’s young and rapidly growing population, rising household incomes, and increasing digital and mobile access, are indicators of a continent primed for mass industrialization.

As Africa continues to evolve, the investment landscape is taking a new shape, driven by technological advancements and a commitment to sustainable growth. The continent’s ability to mobilize sustainable investments will be crucial in fueling its economic transformation and achieving its long-term development goals. With a strategic focus on inclusive and innovative sectors, Africa stands on the cusp of a new era of investment that promises prosperity and progress for its people and investors alike.

Fresh Dispute Over Recruitment Exposes Deep-Rooted Corruption in the Nigerian Police

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In a development that is both ironically disappointing and deeply revealing, the Police Service Commission (PSC) and the Nigeria Police Force (NPF) are enmeshed in corruption allegations over the recruitment of constables.

The allegations, which stem from earlier dispute over right of recruitment into the Nigerian Police Force, emerged recently despite a clear Supreme Court ruling affirming the PSC’s authority to handle recruitment, highlighting a systemic issue that continues to plague the institution.

The saga began with former President Muhammadu Buhari’s approval in 2019 for the recruitment of 10,000 constables annually for six years. This decision sparked a protracted legal battle between the PSC and the NPF, centering on who held the legitimate power to conduct the recruitment. After four years of intense litigation, the Supreme Court finally ruled in favor of the PSC on July 11, 2023.

Allegations of Irregularities

However, the victory was short-lived. The Inspector General of Police (IG), Kayode Egbetokun, recently rejected the list of successful candidates submitted by the PSC, citing severe irregularities and corruption. The police high command, in a statement by the Force Public Relations Officer, ACP Olumuyiwa Adejobi, highlighted disturbing findings: names of individuals who had not applied, candidates who failed essential tests, and those disqualified for medical reasons were all allegedly included in the final list.

“Several names of persons purported to be names of successful candidates are those who did not even apply and therefore did not take part in the recruitment exercise,” he said.

“Most worrisome is the allegation of financial dealings and corrupt practices leading to the outcome where unqualified and untrainable individuals have been shortlisted.

“The reaction of the IGP was without prejudice to the power of the commission to recruit for the police as ruled by the Supreme Court but this power does not include the power to recruit unqualified and untrained individuals for the police,” Adejobi stated.

Adejobi revealed that the police have dissociated themselves from the published list. He argued that the police, rather than the PSC, suffer the consequences of recruiting unqualified individuals.

“The same people who recruited anyhow for the police today will turn round to accuse the police tomorrow of inefficiency when their recruits start messing up,” he added.

PSC’s Strong Rebuttal

The PSC, through its Joint Union, quickly disputed these claims, labeling them as diversionary and baseless. They insisted that the recruitment process adhered strictly to due process and was transparent, aligning with the results of the JAMB Computer-Based Test (CBT).

The union’s statement, signed by Ogundeji Remi and Adoyi Adoyi, accused the police of undermining the commission’s authority and pointed to historical instances of the police manipulating recruitment processes for their own ends.

“The claim that the Recruitment Board was crippled and was not allowed to function, was no doubt a fallacy as the Board severally met before the release of the list of successful candidates. The same Board met and endorsed the list released on June 4, 2024, at their usual meeting point, PSC Corporate Headquarters, with the DIG, Training, Mr. Frank Mba, and other police representatives in attendance.

“Meanwhile, it is also worthy of note that the Police had shortlisted and concluded the exercise without the knowledge of the Board and PSC. They had the effrontery to submit the list to the Commission. They wanted a meeting of the Board where they had planned to force the list on the Board but unfortunately, their plans collapsed.

“For example, this takes us back to 2019 when the then IGP hijacked the list of candidates for the smooth ongoing recruitment exercise from the Commission in the guise of having the list to prepare the training colleges for training purposes and ended up smuggling hundreds of names of persons who neither applied nor participated in the screening process.

“A case in study is Nasarawa State with 13 Local Government Areas that are supposed to have had 253 successful candidates but ended up having 528 after the NPF had sneaked 275 candidates in excess. That culminated in the Commission instituting a legal action against the NPF over our mandate,” the statement explained.

In light of these allegations, the PSC has demanded a forensic audit of the JAMB CBT results, asserting their commitment to transparency. They maintain that the recruitment list is open for scrutiny and challenge any allegations of financial misconduct. The union’s statement also disclosed that the PSC has always involved relevant bodies, including the NPF, in the recruitment process to ensure fairness and credibility.

Enduring Corruption and Calls for Reform

The controversy over recruitment is emblematic of broader issues within the police system, which have fueled loud calls for comprehensive reforms. The deadly EndSARS protests in 2020 were a significant manifestation of public outcry against police brutality and systemic corruption, demanding accountability and transparency in the force.

Many believe this latest conflict is ironically disappointing as it serves once again, as a stark reminder of the deep-rooted corruption in the Nigeria Police Force.

With both the IG Egbetokun, and the PSC calling for a thorough review and audit of the recruitment process to ensure and ascertain that only qualified and competent individuals are enlisted, it is difficult to know who to believe, particularly, given the institution’s antecedents.

A Summer of Potential Transformations on Spot Ether ETFs

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The cryptocurrency market is abuzz with anticipation as Gary Gensler, the Chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), has indicated that approvals for Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could materialize “sometime this summer.” This development marks a significant moment for digital asset securities and could herald a new era of investment opportunities.

The introduction of Ethereum ETFs is poised to open up new avenues for investment and potentially drive further adoption of cryptocurrencies. As the financial ecosystem continues to evolve, Ethereum ETFs stand as a testament to the growing acceptance of digital assets in the realm of mainstream investment.

Ethereum, the blockchain platform known for its versatile smart contracts and as the backbone of numerous decentralized applications, has been at the forefront of the crypto industry’s innovation. The approval of Ethereum ETFs would not only validate the asset’s growing legitimacy but also provide a more accessible avenue for institutional and retail investors to gain exposure to Ethereum without the complexities of direct cryptocurrency ownership.

The SEC’s stance on Ethereum ETFs has been a topic of keen interest, with the regulatory body previously granting initial rounds of applications. The final registration requirements, known as S-1 filings, are now reportedly being handled at the staff level. Once these filings are approved, the ETFs can be listed, allowing for the trading of funds that hold actual Ether, akin to the earlier establishment of Bitcoin spot ETFs that hold BTC.

Here are some of the key advantages:

Accessibility: Ethereum ETFs provide an accessible entry point for individuals and institutions looking to invest in Ethereum without the need for direct purchase or management of the digital currency.

Regulatory Compliance: Operating within a regulated framework, Ethereum ETFs offer a sense of security for investors who are cautious about the often-unregulated nature of the crypto market.

Simplified Investment Process: By investing in an ETF, individuals bypass the complexities associated with cryptocurrency exchanges, wallets, and private key management.

Diversification: Ethereum ETFs allow investors to diversify their portfolios by adding cryptocurrency exposure in a regulated and familiar ETF structure.

The potential approval of Ethereum ETFs is not just a regulatory milestone; it’s a reflection of the evolving landscape of financial instruments. It signifies a bridging of the gap between traditional finance and the burgeoning world of digital assets. For investors, this could mean enhanced liquidity, price discovery, and risk management opportunities.

However, the journey towards the approval of Ethereum ETFs is not without its complexities. The SEC’s approach to digital assets has been cautious, emphasizing investor protection and proper disclosures. Gensler’s recent comments suggest a meticulous review process, ensuring that the ETFs meet the stringent standards required for such financial products.

As the summer progresses, the market awaits with bated breath for further announcements from the SEC. The approval of Ethereum ETFs could potentially catalyze a wave of mainstream adoption and integration of cryptocurrencies into diversified investment portfolios. It represents a step forward in the recognition of cryptocurrencies as a legitimate asset class, one that could reshape the investment landscape for years to come.