I know that Naira is now well above N1000/$ in the black market. Lack of policy clarity is the reason the Naira is still struggling. You may not believe this but it is the fact, as I have written here: Nigeria went into massive de-industrialization at the onset of the poorly implemented border closure. That policy decimated industrial output in Nigeria by more than 20%.

Many small producers in Lagos, Aba which produce for Benin Republic, Cameroon, etc collapsed as a result of that poison-pill-like policy. When we closed the borders, many closed their shops! Yes, when we closed the borders, many closed their shops! (A Nigeria’s former minister noted how this has played in the last few years)

Nigeria’s Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu, has openly acknowledged that the country is grappling with a severe financial crisis.

He stated that the government is presently just managing to pay salaries while dealing with a slow economic growth rate, a rapidly increasing population, surging unemployment, and high inflation.

But in the next few weeks and months, Nigerian Naira will likely get help. I expect oil prices to rise more, and if that happens with higher production output, Nigeria’s external reserves will improve. Typically, when that happens, Naira strengthens, ceteris paribus.

That postulation is anchored on one thing: if Israel moves on with a ground invasion in Gaza, other players could join the conflict. As that happens, the oil market will be rattled, with nations like Nigeria benefiting since anything which affects the  Strait of Hormuz will trigger oil crises around nations.

Yet, the question remains: the Naira may appreciate under that turbulence, but what will make it have a sustained strength? That is where re-industrializing Nigeria matters, even at the light manufacturing level, understanding that industries today include the old type and the modern type (startups and digital firms).

Former Minister of Finance and Trade, Industry and Investment, Mr Olusegun Aganga has stated that Nigeria has been de-industrializing for the past 8 years since 2015. ..In his words,

“The best year for the industry was between 2011 and 2014. That was when there was active collaboration between MAN and the government.

The numbers will tell you that Nigeria has been de-industrialising since 2015, not improving”  

“The numbers will also tell you that when government promotes and supports industrialisation, the industry responds positively, and we all benefit as a country” 

[…]

“The lack of electricity alone adds about 20% to 30% of the production cost and of course, the recent increase in fuel subsidy has further increased the cost of production.”

“The problem has persisted due to the poor implementation of various infrastructure development plans” 

[…]

“Apart from a very low manufacturing base, the major problem of Nigeria’s export of non-oil commodities is standards.

The summary: be careful as you play the Naira because one bomb could re-align imbalances which will help the Naira to appreciate in value. And it does not have to depend on what the Central Bank of Nigeria is doing or not doing. We just need to have a working bank account in America with the oil flowing in the Niger Delta.

Comment on Feed

Comment: I think I’m one of those who see Nigeria as a very difficult economy to predict given the forces at play. The Nigerian economy for some strange reasons have some other artificial factors which may prevent it from obeying the natural laws of demand and supply .

An increase in global oil price and more production output from our fields may still not revive the economy. Nigeria is a strange turf .

My Response: “An increase in global oil price and more production output from our fields may still not revive the economy.” – check data, Naira has always appreciated whenever oil goes north. What happens is that Nigeria has money in the American banks to fight for Naira. It has nothing to do with our efforts in Nigeria.

Comment 2: Nigeria is yet to start building from strength, thus the many reactionary policies, including economic policies. Without an ‘intelligent and proactive’ long term economic development plan that will outlive and outlast any one administration, I am afraid, we are not going anywhere, yet. The continued devaluation of the Naira, in my opinion, is a response to our inability to create and exchange economic value locally and abroad. And, should we maintain this trajectory, it may only get worse.

We are importing our consumption and exporting all our production (and with the increasing japa epidemic – our human capital too), to the extent that most of the resources powering the most vibrant SMEs in the country are foreign.

For as long as local factors of production do not contribute to producing for our consumption and export, we just dey play!

We HOPE too much. If personal economic growth does not respond to hope, but value exchange, how much more a National economy?

Nigeria is Broke, the Government is Just Managing to Pay Salaries – Budget Minister

Let us soldier in peace as Nigeria and France get closer on and in the waters of the Gulf of Guinea. “What would you like to be when you grow up?, a senior would ask in the village square.  “A soldier”, we would respond under the Akpurachi tree in Ugwunta Ovim. Why not? Everyone grew under the sirens of governors, and we extrapolated that the best path to a career success was a military one.

It remained like that until Admiral Ndubuisi Kanu came to the village school and reshaped our thinking. He dropped words, and said “you must be educated”, and then put efforts to channel our mindsets to do well in schools.(He kept checking, going round the village to see progress).  General Ike Nwachukwu was also pushing everything to make it clear that the future generation of Ovim was not tethered to military service. Sure, nothing wrong with serving, but every person could not and must not join the military!

Sure, we have got many military people here, and one who became Nigeria’s Army chief (General Ihejirika), his father’s parlour was where we used to gather to study Mathematics. People, it was all military and the admiration was natural.  And as Nigeria does whatever it has to do with France, I just have one request as we respect their decisions: let us end the drill as planned. Yes, no extension to Niger Republic.

Take time to read speeches by Nnamdi Azikiwe and Obafemi Awolowo before and after the Biafra war. You will notice that their tones changed from “We’re” to “We will”. Before the war, they were confident, but after the war, they came to think deeper into the future, unsure. As Zik mounted podiums as Nigeria’s first president, he muttered words that “Nigeria is leading”. Post-war, he updated that “Nigeria will lead”.  Across all indicators, they were not sure of the future.

Till today, Nigeria has not recovered, because We’re is now a loop of We Will. We do not want that in West Africa and this military exercise should come and end, no extensions to Niger Republic!

FRENCH NAVY SHIP MISTRAL PAYS A PORT CALL IN LAGOS, TO PARTICIPATE IN EXERCISE GRAND AFRICAN NEMO AND EXERCISE CROCODILE LIFT SCHEDULED FOR 9-15 OCTOBER 2023. FRENCH DEFENCE ATTACHE TO NIGERIA, COLONEL GUILLAUME DUJON ALSO PAID A COURTESY VISIT TO HEADQUARTERS WESTERN NAVAL COMMAND, APAPA, LAGOS.

When you see a law enforcement agent in the USA make an arrest; they always voice out the following long phrase religiously in this particular order; 

“You have the right to remain silent. Anything you say can and will be used against you in a court of law. You have the right to an attorney. If you cannot afford an attorney, one will be provided for you. Do you understand the rights I have just read to you? With these rights in mind, do you wish to speak to me”?

They are not reciting this long phrase because they enjoy saying it, or singing it as a poem; they are merely reciting it because they are obligated by law; the Fifth Amendment and judicial precedents to say this to an arrested suspect; if they do not say it, they will be in breach of the law and whatever evidence or statement they obtained from the suspect will be discountenanced.

These rights are made available to a suspect under the Nigerian constitution in section 35 of the constitution of the federal republic of Nigeria.

Those words recited are called the Miranda rights or the Miranda warning and it was named after a notorious criminal by the name “Miranda”. 

Miranda, a suspect, was arrested at his home and taken in custody to a police station where he was identified by the complaining witness as the person who committed the crime. He was accused of kidnapping and rape and he was then interrogated by two police officers for two straight hours, which resulted in him signing a statement, written confession. At trial, the oral and written confessions obtained from him were presented to the jury. Miranda was found guilty of kidnapping and rape and was sentenced to 20-30 years imprisonment on each count.

On appeal, the court held that a suspect must be advised of their rights before being questioned by police, including their right to an attorney even if they cannot afford one as established in Gideon v. Wainwright, 1963. If they were not advised of these rights, any evidence or statement obtained from the suspect would be inadmissible. 

Miranda v. Arizona, 384 U.S. 436 (1966), subsequently became the landmark case providing the ultimate ruling of the Supreme Court which the court ruled that by the provisions of the Fifth Amendment, prosecutors are restricted from using a person’s statement made in response to interrogation in police custody as evidence at the trial unless they can show that the suspect was informed of his right to consult an attorney before and during the questioning and the fight against self incrimination and that the suspect understood those rights but also voluntarily waved them.

These Miranda warnings as established in Miranda v Arizona are five altogether, and a law enforcement agent is expected to recite all to the suspect at his arrest or at his interrogation;

1. You have the right to remain silent. 
2. Anything you say can and will be used against you in a court of law. 
3. You have the right to an attorney. 
4. If you cannot afford an attorney, one will be provided for you. 
5. Do you understand the rights I have just read to you? With these rights in mind, do you wish to speak to me”

If these warnings were not said by the law enforcement agent that made the arrest or by the interrogator before or during the interrogation; whatever statement or evidence obtained from the suspect will be inadmissible in court and will be therefore be discountenanced on the ground that those evidences and statement were obtained from the suspect through coercion, duress or use of force.