The junta-led Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have disclosed a plan to establish a confederation that will deepen their ties following their exit from the regional West African bloc.
According to the statement issued by the Malian foreign ministry on Thursday, the three countries would form the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). The three neighboring countries in the Sahel region announced in January they would quit the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), despite a decision by the bloc urging them to rethink.
Reuters reported that during a meeting in the Burkinabe capital of Ouagadougou, the three ministers from the respective countries affirmed their collective dedication to promptly withdrawing from ECOWAS.
They “reaffirmed their commitment to advancing resolutely in the process of implementing the AES and creating the Tri-State Confederation,” the Malian foreign ministry said in an online post. The group has not revealed details on how the proposed confederation would operate or on how closely they plan to align political, economic, and security interests.
One of the mishaps in the three countries is their struggle to contain an epidemic battle with Islamist insurgents that has destabilized the subregion. In November 2023, their finance ministers said they would weigh the option of establishing a monetary union, and top officials from all three countries have, to varying degrees, voiced support for abandoning West Africa’s CFA franc common currency.
The juntas have all severed long-standing military ties with former colonial ruler France, dealing a blow to France’s influence in the Sahel and complicating international efforts to fight the militants linked to al Qaeda and Islamic State.
Nigerian leader and ECOWAS Chairman, President Bola Tinubu has had to face challenges of restoring democratic governments in the three countries, as his efforts were met with opposition. He sent a delegation at different times including former military leader, Abdulsalam Abubakar, and Benin Republic President Patrice Talon, to Niger which experienced the recent military takeover.
On 26 July 2023, a coup d’état occurred in Niger when the country’s presidential guard detained President Mohamed Bazoum, and Presidential Guard commander General Abdourahamane Tchiani proclaimed himself the leader of a new military junta, shortly after confirming the coup a success.
Before Niger’s coup d’état took place, Burkina Faso, on 30 September 2022, had its military takeover when the Interim President Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba was removed over his alleged inability to contain the country’s Islamist insurgency. Damiba had come to power in a coup d’état eight months earlier before Captain Ibrahim Traoré took over as interim leader.
In 2021, the Malian coup d’état began on the night of 24 May when the Malian Army led by Vice President Assimi Goïta captured President Bah N’daw, Prime Minister Moctar Ouane and Minister of Defence Souleymane Doucouré. Goita has remained in power since then.
The implications abound
The potential implications of a new confederation in West Africa are multifold. Firstly, it could lead to a consolidation of power among the junta-led governments, potentially entrenching authoritarian regimes in the region. This could further exacerbate issues of governance, human rights abuses, and political instability.
Secondly, the confederation could disrupt existing regional dynamics, particularly within ECOWAS, and strain diplomatic relations between member states. Thirdly, the withdrawal of these countries from ECOWAS and the establishment of a new confederation could weaken regional efforts towards economic integration, security cooperation, and development initiatives.
Lastly, the confederation may face challenges in gaining international recognition and legitimacy, particularly if it is perceived as undermining democratic norms and principles. Overall, the establishment of a new confederation in West Africa has the potential to reshape regional politics and security dynamics, with significant implications for stability and governance in the Sahel region.
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