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Home Blog Page 379

Ken Griffin’s Warning on the “Debasement Trade” On Concerns of Erosion of USD Value

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Ken Griffin, founder and CEO of the hedge fund giant Citadel, highlighted a significant shift in investor behavior during a Bloomberg interview.

He described how individuals and institutions are increasingly allocating capital to gold, silver, and Bitcoin as part of what’s being called the “debasement trade”—a strategy to hedge against the erosion of the U.S. dollar’s value due to inflation, excessive money printing, and rising sovereign debt risks.

This trend, Griffin noted, reflects broader efforts to “de-dollarize” portfolios and mitigate exposure to U.S. fiscal uncertainties, including an ongoing government shutdown and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Griffin attributed the move to several interconnected factors: The U.S. dollar has declined about 10% year-to-date in 2025, its worst performance in decades, amid inflation running above the Fed’s 2% target and forecasts suggesting it will persist into 2026.

He likened the U.S. economy to being on a “sugar high” from recession-level stimulus measures, fueling asset inflation across markets like stocks, gold, and crypto—despite no actual recession.

With U.S. debt levels soaring and political gridlock (e.g., the shutdown), investors are seeking “non-sovereign” assets that aren’t tied to government promises.

Griffin called this dynamic “really concerning,” as it signals eroding global confidence in the dollar as the ultimate safe haven. This strategy has propelled gold, silver, and Bitcoin to new heights in 2025, with unusual correlations emerging between them and even traditional equities like the S&P 500.

Investors are increasingly viewing gold as a safer store of value than the dollar, with portfolios being “de-risked” against U.S. government debt and fiscal policies. Griffin noted that this includes a surge in crypto assets like Bitcoin, whose “unbelievable” appreciation underscores the trend.

He likened the U.S. economy to being on a “sugar high,” propped up by recession-like stimulus measures amid persistent inflation currently above the Fed’s 2% target and projected at 2-3% next year. Despite booming equities driven by AI and high-performance computing, underlying risks like a weakening dollar are being masked.

Griffin warned that this could erode global confidence in the U.S. as a financial hub, potentially accelerating moves by countries to settle trade in local currencies or digital assets. He also expressed concerns over policies like higher H-1B visa fees, which might deter international talent in STEM fields from coming to the U.S.

Gold and Bitcoin, in particular, have never before been the top two performing asset classes year-to-date, underscoring the novelty of this trade. Analysts like Yan Lee from Bitget describe them as “dual debasement trades,” emphasizing their scarcity and independence from central banks.

Wall Street echoes this: Goldman Sachs recently forecasted even higher gold prices, and ETF inflows into Bitcoin have accelerated, with firms like MicroStrategy pausing buys after amassing $79B in holdings.

While Griffin views this as a red flag for U.S. economic health, it validates Bitcoin’s maturation as a mainstream hedge—once dismissed by traditional finance, now grouped with gold and silver.

If the government shutdown drags on Polymarket odds favor it extending past October 15, or if inflation data disappoints, these assets could rally further, tightening their correlation and pressuring the dollar more.

For investors, it’s a reminder that in times of fiat uncertainty, “hard money” alternatives—physical or digital—are gaining traction as portfolio diversifiers.

BNB Flips XRP in Market Capitalization and Closing In On USDT

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BNB the native token of the Binance ecosystem has flipped XRP in market capitalization and is now neck-and-neck with USDT, positioning itself as a top contender for the #3 spot behind Bitcoin and Ethereum.

This comes amid a blistering rally that’s pushed BNB to new all-time highs (ATHs), fueled by ecosystem growth on BNB Chain, token burns, and broader market momentum.

BNB’s cap has exploded from around $150B earlier this month to over $172B–$180B, driven by a ~50% monthly price surge. Slight variances exist due to real-time fluctuations and exchange differences—BNB briefly hit $180B today, overtaking XRP outright but trailing USDT by a razor-thin margin under $1B gap.

A full flip of USDT could happen with another 1–2% pump, given BNB’s volatility. The Rally to New ATHsPrice Action: BNB smashed its previous ATH set in late 2024 at ~$800–$900 and peaked at nearly $1,300 today, marking a 45–50% YTD gain. It’s up 28% in the last week alone, outpacing most alts.

BNB Chain (formerly BSC) led with $4.14B in 24h DEX volume and $2.48M in fees, thanks to DeFi activity on PancakeSwap and other dApps. Binance’s quarterly burns reducing circulating supply and short liquidations amplified the squeeze.

Broader crypto rally post-U.S. regulatory clarity, plus rotation from ETH/SOL into “exchange tokens” like BNB. Analysts eye $1,300+ as the next target if momentum holds, with some calling for $1,500 by year-end on continued adoption.

Some iinvestors called it “manipulation, not organic growth,” citing Binance’s control over 64% of supply and a $40B cap jump vs. just 5% total market growth. BNB surpassing Spotify $151B cap and nearing Pfizer, signaling its “global finance” flex.

While the flip is a massive win for Binance and CZ’s vision, USDT’s stablecoin status makes it a tougher nut to crack long-term—its cap is tied to fiat reserves, not price pumps.

XRP holders are grumbling one post quipped it’s “on life support”, but Ripple’s institutional focus could spark a rebound. For BNB, watch for regulatory heat on centralized exchanges; a pullback to $1,100 could test supports if BTC cools.

BNB’s climb to a $172B–$180B market cap, overtaking XRP and briefly USDT, signals a pivotal shift in crypto’s hierarchy. This isn’t just a price pump—it reflects changing investor priorities, competitive dynamics, and structural trends.

BNB’s surge underscores a preference for platform utility over stablecoin safety (USDT) or payment-focused assets (XRP). BNB Chain’s 18.8M daily transactions and $4.14B DEX volume highlight its role as a DeFi and dApp hub, pulling capital from stables as investors chase yield in a risk-on market.

This could redefine the “safe haven” meta, with utility tokens like BNB and SOL gaining over USDT’s $177B reserve-tied cap. BNB’s rally strengthens Binance’s grip as a centralized-decentralized hybrid.

Its validator growth more decentralized than 2024 and AI-driven liquidity tools position BNB Chain as a global financial OS, potentially challenging Ethereum’s $564B dominance if scaling continues. Some call this a “corporate nation” play, with BNB as a “digital GDP” proxy.

USDT’s flip signals declining trust in fiat-pegged assets amid regulatory noise like MiCA in Europe. If BNB holds #3, it could sap liquidity from USDT/DAI, forcing Tether to innovate or risk irrelevance in speculative flows.

XRP’s $178B cap and $2.45 price lag BNB’s momentum, despite Ripple’s institutional wins. BNB’s retail-driven pump 50% YTD vs. XRP’s 27% steals speculative thunder, with X posts noting XRP’s “life support” vibe. Ripple must lean on ETF hopes or BRICS adoption to counter, but its 0.5% daily gain vs. BNB’s 6–8% shows a short-term rout.

BNB’s rise could ignite a tiered altseason, boosting BSC-native tokens by 10–20% as inflows follow. However, SOL ($126B) and ADA face pressure to match BNB’s utility narrative. If BNB hits $1,500 (18% upside), its $200B+ cap could pull $50B from smaller alts, per historical rotation patterns.

BNB’s flip validates exchange tokens as growth assets, potentially sparking mini-rallies. But Binance’s 64% BNB supply control raises manipulation flags, as one X skeptic noted, risking volatility if trust wanes.

BNB’s burns 139M supply, -2% quarterly contrast USDT’s reserve growth and XRP’s fixed 100B supply. This scarcity, paired with BNB Chain’s low fees $0.001/tx, could cement BNB as a BRICS-friendly asset, challenging SWIFT in emerging markets. Analysts project a $700–$1,000 floor by 2026 if adoption scales.

BNB’s centralized roots invite scrutiny—U.S. and EU regulators may target Binance post-2024 clarity, capping upside. XRP’s SEC wins give it a regulatory edge, potentially flipping BNB back if retail flows cool.

BNB Chain’s Greenfield data storage and AI integrations position it as a Web3 backbone, rivaling ETH’s smart contract lead. If validator decentralization hits 50% by 2026, BNB could become a “neutral” global utility.

BNB’s 45% YTD gain makes it a portfolio anchor for momentum traders, with $3B OI signaling strong longs. However, its 0.59 correlation with BTC ties it to macro dips—$1,100 is a key support if BTC drops to $60K. XRP holders may pivot to BNB for short-term alpha.

BNB’s flip of XRP and USDT marks a turning point: Utility tokens are king in a risk-on market, but regulatory and centralization risks loom. BNB Chain’s DeFi and AI bets could make it a $200B+ asset, but XRP’s institutional moat and USDT’s fiat anchor won’t fade quietly.

For investors, BNB’s momentum screams opportunity, but diversification and stop-losses are critical—$1,300 is a ceiling to watch. Long-term, BNB’s global finance play could reshape crypto’s hierarchy, assuming Binance navigates the regulatory maze.

Three Fundamental Eras of World Economic History and the African Future

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Across the arc of human progress, I have divided the world economic history into three fundamental eras: the Invention Society, the Innovation Society, and the Accelerated Society. The Invention Society was when humankind discovered the building blocks of science— gravity, electromagnetism, and calculus—yet lacked the ability to commercialize them. The Innovation Society took those inventions and converted them into products—light bulbs, automobiles, vaccines, and transistors. But now, we are in the Accelerated Society: a civilization where ideas scale instantly through digital fabrics, where code replaces factories, and where intelligence—human or artificial—becomes the new oil.

For Africa, this transition offers the greatest promise in its history. The continent largely missed the full benefits of the industrial and early innovation ages. But in the Accelerated Society, the marginal cost of intelligence is near zero. The same AI algorithm that powers a Silicon Valley startup can also power a logistics company in Lagos or a healthcare agent in Nairobi. The barriers of geography, infrastructure, and even scale have been flattened. What remains is ambition, execution, and knowledge accumulation—three factors that now define competitiveness.

Startups in the Era of Acceleration

Future African startups will not merely copy Western models; they will reframe problems around the continent’s unique realities. A fintech in Lagos will not just digitize payments but reimagine credit scoring for people without formal data footprints. A logistics startup in Kampala will use predictive AI to organize informal transport routes. The startups that win will be those that combine deep local insight with universal intelligence systems.

The Accelerated Society demands that African founders become systems builders, not just app creators. They must design ecosystems—data, APIs, and algorithms—that make AI the engine of inclusion. Just as the Industrial Revolution rewarded those who owned steam and steel, the Accelerated Society will reward those who own intelligence pipelines: the datasets, domain expertise, and adaptive AI models built from Africa’s context.

AI as Africa’s Development Shortcut

Artificial Intelligence represents Africa’s most potent development shortcut. In the past, building national capacity required decades of industrial policy. Today, an AI-trained system can offer near-human diagnostic support to a rural doctor in Sokoto or recommend precision fertilizers to a farmer in Eldoret. This is the power of exponential systems: they compress time, democratize capability, and compound learning.

But to extract this dividend, Africa must build local AI capacity. That means universities that teach prompt engineering, startups that train models on African languages, and governments that deploy AI to predict floods, manage traffic, and optimize public finance. The AI age is not just about technology; it is about institutional redesign, where data becomes a national asset, and intelligence becomes a public utility.

The Future: From Adoption to Creation

In the coming decade, the defining African startups will not be those that merely use AI but those that create AI tuned to local nuances—voice agents that understand Pidgin and Swahili, credit models trained on market transaction data, and educational tutors that teach mathematics through local examples. These are not dreams; they are blueprints for AI-enabled prosperity.

My message is simple: while the West leads in invention and Asia perfects innovation, Africa’s chance lies in acceleration. By leaping over industrial bottlenecks and harnessing AI as the great equalizer, the continent can transform from consumer to creator, from imitator to innovator. The future startup in Africa will not just chase profit; it will code development itself.

AMD’s Multi-Billion-Dollar Chip and Equity Deal with OpenAI Includes Supply Of 6GW Of Compute Capacity

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OpenAI’s landmark deal with AMD marks one of the most significant GPU supply and equity partnerships in the artificial intelligence industry to date.

The deal, which is projected to generate tens of billions of dollars in revenue for AMD, underscores the fierce race among AI firms to secure the computing power required to sustain large-scale model training and deployment.

Under the partnership, AMD will provide multiple generations of its Instinct graphics processing units (GPUs), beginning with the Instinct MI450 series, which the company says will outperform Nvidia’s forthcoming Rubin CPX chips. The first gigawatt of capacity will be deployed in the second half of 2026, when the MI450 enters production.

AMD said the agreement extends beyond a traditional supply contract, describing it as a “strategic alignment” that integrates OpenAI’s software and hardware optimization feedback into AMD’s GPU design process. The collaboration is expected to shape AMD’s AI roadmap through 2030, with OpenAI serving as both a customer and a development partner.

The six-gigawatt supply commitment — enough to power about 4.5 million homes — marks one of the largest single orders in AMD’s history. AMD’s current Instinct MI355X and MI300X GPUs are already used in certain OpenAI workloads and are recognized for their performance in large language model (LLM) inference, thanks to their expanded memory bandwidth and capacity.

As part of the deal, OpenAI will also receive the right to purchase up to 160 million AMD shares — roughly a 10% equity stake — tied to performance milestones and chip deployment schedules. The first tranche will vest when OpenAI receives the first gigawatt of compute capacity, with subsequent tranches tied to additional purchases up to the full 6 GW.

OpenAI’s ownership stake will further depend on AMD’s stock performance, with the final tranche vesting once the stock hits $600 per share. AMD’s shares closed Friday at $164.67 but surged nearly 35% to $222.24 by Monday after news of the partnership broke — signaling strong investor confidence in AMD’s growing relevance in the AI compute space.

Dr. Lisa Su, AMD’s chair and CEO, described the partnership as transformative. “We are thrilled to partner with OpenAI to deliver AI compute at massive scale,” Su said. “This partnership brings the best of AMD and OpenAI together to create a true win-win enabling the world’s most ambitious AI buildout and advancing the entire AI ecosystem.”

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman echoed the sentiment, calling the deal “a major step in building the compute capacity to realize AI’s full potential.” Altman has made chip diversification a central part of OpenAI’s long-term strategy, seeking to avoid dependency on Nvidia, whose GPUs remain the backbone of most AI systems globally.

The AMD deal follows a wave of agreements OpenAI has announced in recent weeks as it races to secure AI compute infrastructure for its expanding “Stargate” network — a global buildout of supercomputing data centers with planned capacity exceeding seven gigawatts.

Last month, Nvidia agreed to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI and supply at least 10 gigawatts of AI compute capacity. Around the same time, OpenAI and Broadcom signed a $10 billion deal to co-develop and manufacture custom AI accelerators. The company also inked partnerships with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to supply DRAM memory chips and support data center construction in South Korea.

Analysts say the AMD-OpenAI partnership signals a new phase in the global chip race, as OpenAI diversifies suppliers and AMD positions itself as a credible challenger to Nvidia’s near-monopoly in AI GPUs. The collaboration could also reshape competitive dynamics in AI infrastructure, especially as OpenAI pushes forward with projects designed to power the next generation of artificial general intelligence (AGI).

With this deal, AMD moves squarely into the center of the global AI buildout — one that could redefine its market standing and challenge Nvidia’s dominance over the most lucrative sector in modern computing.

Morgan Stanley’s Latest Stance on Bitcoin and Crypto Allocations

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Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee (GIC), announced in their October 2025 special report titled “Asset Allocation Considerations for Cryptocurrencies.”

This guidance marks a significant step toward mainstream institutional adoption of digital assets, building on the firm’s earlier approval of Bitcoin ETFs in 2024.

Bitcoin as “Digital Gold” The GIC explicitly describes Bitcoin as a scarce asset akin to digital gold, emphasizing its fixed supply cap of 21 million coins as a key factor for long-term value preservation.

This positions BTC within the “real assets” category, similar to commodities like physical gold, which acts as an inflation hedge and store of value. Analysts note Bitcoin’s maturing profile: It has delivered outsized returns ~80% year-over-year price growth as of October 2025 while showing declining volatility compared to its early days.

However, they caution that correlations with traditional assets like equities can spike during economic stress, potentially amplifying portfolio risks. This analogy isn’t new to the industry—Bitcoin has long been dubbed “digital gold” by proponents—but Morgan Stanley’s endorsement lends heavyweight credibility, especially as BTC hit a new all-time high of $125,000 amid tightening exchange supplies.

Flexible Crypto Allocations for Advisors

Morgan Stanley is empowering its 16,000 financial advisors, who manage over $2 trillion in client wealth, to flexibly incorporate cryptocurrency into multi-asset portfolios. This isn’t a blanket mandate but targeted guidance to meet growing client demand, particularly from younger investors.

The GIC’s official model portfolios won’t include explicit crypto lines yet, but advisors can now allocate based on client risk profiles. The report stresses quarterly or at least annual rebalancing to cap exposure and align with risk targets, preventing crypto’s price swings from dominating portfolios.

Allocations would primarily use regulated vehicles like spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs from BlackRock or Fidelity, with potential expansion via ETRADE’s upcoming crypto trading platform in early 2026.

This move could channel up to $80 billion into crypto markets if even a fraction of that $2 trillion follows the upper-end guidance— a conservative estimate, but transformative for liquidity and price stability.

Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley called it “huge,” signaling the “mainstream era” for crypto in wealth management. It’s a clear sign that Wall Street’s caution is giving way to calculated inclusion, though the GIC’s “speculative but legitimate” framing underscores ongoing volatility risks.

By comparing Bitcoin to “digital gold” and integrating it into a “real assets” framework, Morgan Stanley—a titan managing over $2 trillion—lends significant credibility to cryptocurrencies. This could encourage other wealth management giants to deepen their crypto offerings, accelerating institutional acceptance.

With 16,000 advisors now able to allocate up to 4% of certain portfolios to crypto via regulated vehicles like Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, even a conservative uptake could drive $20–80 billion into the market 1–4% of $2T.

This influx would bolster liquidity, reduce volatility, and support price appreciation, as seen with Bitcoin’s recent surge to $125,000. Rival firms may feel pressure to match or exceed Morgan Stanley’s move to retain clients, especially younger, crypto-savvy investors.

Increased institutional demand, combined with Bitcoin’s tightening exchange supplies at six-year lows, could fuel further price rallies. However, the GIC’s emphasis on rebalancing suggests advisors will sell into strength, potentially capping runaway volatility.

The report’s data shows Bitcoin’s correlation with equities can spike during market stress like the 0.6–0.8 correlation in past downturns. While crypto offers diversification in stable markets, its behavior as a risk-on asset during crises could amplify portfolio losses if not carefully managed.

While the focus is on Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, growing comfort with crypto could indirectly boost interest in other digital assets, especially as ETRADE’s crypto trading platform set for 2026 expands access.

Morgan Stanley’s move addresses rising demand, particularly from millennials and Gen Z, who view crypto as a core investment. This could reshape advisor training and portfolio strategies, prioritizing digital asset expertise.

The conservative allocation caps 0–4% and rebalancing mandates reflect caution, signaling that firms will prioritize risk-adjusted returns over speculative bets. This could set a template for disciplined crypto integration across the industry.

Advisors and firms stand to gain from fees on crypto ETFs and trading platforms, diversifying revenue streams as traditional asset classes face margin compression. Morgan Stanley’s reliance on regulated vehicles like spot ETFs suggests alignment with SEC oversight, reducing fears of regulatory crackdowns.

This could embolden policymakers to clarify crypto regulations, fostering market stability. The move incentivizes custodians, exchanges, and ETF pproviders such as BlackRock, Fidelity to scale infrastructure, improving security and accessibility for retail and institutional investors.

U.S.-based institutional adoption may pressure international firms and jurisdictions to follow, especially in crypto-friendly regions like Singapore or Switzerland.

Framing Bitcoin as “digital gold” in a prestigious firm’s report could shift public perception, moving crypto from a speculative fringe asset to a legitimate store of value, especially amid inflation concerns.

The GIC notes Bitcoin’s occasional alignment with equities, which could undermine its diversification benefits during market downturns. Widespread advisor adoption may be gradual, as many remain skeptical or lack crypto expertise, potentially limiting near-term impact.

Analyts caution about overhyping, noting the conservative allocation caps and the need for investor education. Morgan Stanley’s guidance is a pivotal moment, signaling crypto’s transition from niche to normalized in wealth management. It could drive significant capital inflows, enhance market stability, and reshape portfolio strategies, but success hinges on disciplined risk management and regulatory clarity.