As I have written here many times, I use many unconventional ways to pick indicators on where things are in Nigeria. To model the strength of the export of our physical goods, I ask friends to send me images of ships as they arrive and depart the harbours, from Marina Street’s highrise buildings in Lagos. Right now, most ships arrive fully loaded but depart partly loaded or empty.

Also, I do ask contacts in aviation to send me how many planes are parked at night in our major airports. Those give me indications on supply chain and the strength of economic activities. Again, the total number of operating planes in Nigeria has dropped from this time last year.

Last year, I added a new element: ask people to examine traffic in their village’s popular junctions on Christmas and New Year days. Yes, compared with last year’s traffic, were those junctions busier, etc. The consensus I am getting from most I have sampled is clear: in most parts of southern Nigeria, people did not visit home and many popular rural junctions did not experience as much traffic as last year’s. In other words, most people did not travel to rural areas during this Christmas break.  Whenever that happens, it means there is economic stress. Yes, no money to travel! (The high cost of transportation due to the removal of the fuel subsidy could also be a huge factor.)

Let me ask you: if you visited home during the holidays,  is this consistent with your observation? Did you see more people and vehicular traffic in the village? 

Good People, from Oriendu Market Junction to Ababa Imenyi Junction, in Abia State, to other junctions, traffics dropped significantly.

Nigeria cannot afford to disconnect rural Nigeria from urban Nigeria. We must make sure that the connection remains. But as it stands, it does seem like Nigeria recorded a massive economic degradation within the  last 12 months due to changes in forex policy and fuel prices.

This is not suprising: supply chain is commerce and when that is broken, everything fades. With the cost of transportation high due to fuel re-pricing, Nigeria dislocated the equlibrium.  I do not support the removal of fuel subsidy because every country on earth subsidies something; Nigeria has the capacity to fuel production with common-sense subsidy of energy. My only solution has been simple: remove the corruption in Nigeria’s fuel subsidy which makes it look bad. 

Yes, it was similar to my position on border closure where I noted that  you do not close your land borders because your Customs officers are ineffective; a better solution would have been to fire those men and women, and get new people to do their jobs.

I do hope we do not forget rural Nigeria as transportation cost can widen the “distance”, considering that the collapse of the postal service has already taken most of those rural areas out of our national economic maps.

I use many unconventional ways to pick indicators on where things are in Nigeria. To model the strength of the export of our physical goods, I ask friends to send me images of ships as they arrive and depart the harbours, from Marina Street’s highrise buildings in Lagos. Right… pic.twitter.com/V5Dfqz3Iqt

— Ndubuisi Ekekwe (@ndekekwe) January 4, 2024

The Punch published a brilliant new year editorial titled “2024: Reset Nigeria and avert the storm”, and partly wrote: “The PUNCH strongly recommends that while not neglecting others, Tinubu should attach utmost priority and give his full attention to four areas namely; the economy, security, corruption, and restructuring, the last being the most crucial for Nigeria’s survival

[….]

“Until like the defunct regions, the states become self-sustaining, productive units each with autonomous economic plans with sector-specific, job-creating targets and robust taxation and investment policies, poverty, unemployment, hunger, and insecurity will linger.

“They must be unshackled to participate fully in mining, power, railways, and ports; the template of only one government (the centre) with implementable comprehensive economic plans negates the federalism principle. It is the aggregate of the production of the central and sub-national governments that drive the economies of the United States, India, Brazil, Malaysia, Australia, and other federal countries.”

Yes, restructuring is very fundamental and the benefits are self-evident. Yet, I noted in 2017 that it may not be the magic strike to save Nigeria: “Why restructuring looks good on paper, there is nothing that says it will work. Most of the former governors are in courts fighting corruption cases. In short, restructuring will simply make it easier for them to have more to steal. In Nigeria, I am yet to see any evidence that more money will lead to more economic development. When the Paris Club money was released, some governors just got bigger cars. Their teachers were on strike, they did not care. One governor used the money to buy a mansion in excess of N500 million for a traditional ruler. Are these same governors the people that will run the post-restructured states?

“Technically, the only consolation for most people will be that their tribal men are the ones stealing their commonwealth, instead of someone from another tribe. That is the only consolation: the money belongs here and the son of the soil is the one stealing it, so be it. Except that, mere restructuring has marginal benefits.”

Nonetheless, I do support restructuring because it has a clear path to push Nigeria to evolve into a merit-based pragmatic society where honest leaders will run the show. For that to work, you will restructure with state police, state electoral systems, state banking charters, state CAC (corporate affairs commission), etc. If not, nothing will change.

The Punch published a brilliant new year editorial titled "2024: Reset Nigeria and avert the storm", and partly wrote: "The PUNCH strongly recommends that while not neglecting others, Tinubu should attach utmost priority and give his full attention to four areas namely; the… pic.twitter.com/IW30rzbySn

— Ndubuisi Ekekwe (@ndekekwe) January 4, 2024

Beyond Restructuring, How To Make Nigeria Great