Senator: I like reading your articles on LinkedIn. And I have a simple question for you: “what can be done to transform Nigeria from your view?”

My Response: (We later had a conversation and I am going to summarize what I told the Senator.) I do believe that nations rise when they implement these critical pillars for transformation and development. From my studies of economies and looking over 2,000 years of gross world product, these pillars are vital:

Merit-based system – no nation has advanced better than its ability to inspire, motivate and reward via merit. Without a nationally transparent merit-based system, Nigeria cannot progress.

Pragmatic Innovation – focus on what works, over the purity of scoring political goals. The implication is that we have to seek and execute the best ideas irrespective of where they may be coming. I gave an example of how the same team of Central Bank leaders who kept our exchange rate stable for years, within 2012 to 2015, blew it up later. Yes, we must allow data to work and follow the best ideas.

Honest Leadership – the citizens are smarter and can only take cues from their leaders. People willingly pay taxes when taxes work in their lives, they say. If we preach one thing and do another thing, you lose the citizens.

Integrate Rural and Urban Nigeria – we need to have a functioning postal service, to bridge the huge gap between rural and urban Nigeria. I explained how years ago, secondary school kids used to have American and European pen pals, relying 100% on NIPOST. A reliable postal service will unlock massive latent opportunities across Nigeria, from agro to arts to entertainment, in this globalizing world.

Put Rural Wealth in Nigeria’s Balance Sheet /Property Rights – those lands (subject to the land use act), houses, etc should be digitized and recorded so that even those in rural Nigeria can enter the formal economy. It is unfortunate that a man with 100 hectares is considered poor because he has no papers to share with banks, to access credits to train his kids and support his family. Simply, Nigeria must advance its property rights governance, not just in land and physical properties but also intellectual properties.

Senator: I like reading your articles on LinkedIn. And I have a simple question for you: “what can be done to transform Nigeria from your view?”

My Response: (We later had a conversation and I am going to summarize what I told the Senator.) From my studies of economies and… pic.twitter.com/yhkIi3coUX

— Ndubuisi Ekekwe (@ndekekwe) November 24, 2023

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Going to the archives. The African Union, reading a policy brief I wrote as part of my doctoral degree in banking and finance and later repurposed for the World Bank, invited me to attend the African Union Congress, in 2009. On confirming the invitation, I wrote the lead paper for AU, and then wrote this article in 2009, and many media organizations across Africa published it. 

This was my conclusion: “All the continent has to do is to approach the adoption of the single currency cautiously. The African Union must work to strengthen the regional economic communities (REC) for better currency unions and financial integrations.  This will involve transforming them, I suggest, into Knowledge Economic Communities (KEC) where knowledge will become the main factor of production with coherent trade shocks among member states. This means more funding for science education, better information networks and transportation systems, revamped innovation and entrepreneurial environment and vibrant democratic institutions. Afterwards, these KECs will converge to a single African economy of one currency to be managed by a continent-wide supranational central bank. A knowledge economy Africa with our vast resources will transform every aspect of modern commerce and industry and move millions out of poverty.”

In my lead paper, I argued that a single currency will cause trade shocks in Africa due to the heterogeneous nature of our economies, making it nearly impossible for a supranational bank to architect policies which will work for all the 50+ economies effectively. I cited the CFA franc zone and how a single currency did not improve citizens’ welfare, and drawing from that concluded that while a single African currency seems exciting, transforming economies to become more homogenous via knowledge systems will serve Africa better, at the moment.  That paper remains on African Union website.

Finding solutions that will overcome the foreseen problems of the single currency shock is better than not discouraging its implementation! Pursue the implementation with solutions to the shocks concurrently!

— Kel Anya (@Kel_Anya) November 24, 2023

My Response: If you have a single currency in ECOWAS, count it that anything Nigeria does will affect all the countries because the GDP of Nigeria is huge compared to all of them. In other words, when Nigeria acts, those countries will be affected even though they may not be a part. The reason Euro works is clear: their economies are homogeneous in nature. Nigeria’s oil-dependent oil will make the ECOWAS region an oil-dependent region, causing problems from Gambia to the Benin Republic.  Yes, the suprational bank of ‘ECOWAS ECO” will largely focus on Nigeria because of the impact. 

With that, it is nearly impossible to “pursue the implementation with solutions to the shocks concurrently!” without causing welfare losses. Sure, if you do suggest some solutions, those could be modeled to see the impacts. But from my angle, except transforming the economies with time, nothing much could be done.

Towards Knowledge Economic Communities in Africa

By Ndubuisi Ekekwe

About half a century ago, African leaders established the Organization of African Unity partly to promote socio-economic structures aimed at improving the welfare of the citizens and general integration of the continent. But owing to decades of political tensions and weak economic infrastructures, the goals have not materialized.

The success of the single European currency, Euro, which has become very central to many recent transformations in Europe by offering more efficient means of transacting businesses and using the human and institutional capabilities of the continent to foster more prosperity has shown the power of an integrated monetary system in a globalizing world. As the world moves towards knowledge-based economic structures and data societies, which comprise networks of individuals, firms and nations that are linked electronically and in mutually dependent global relationships, the power of a single African currency has become very important.  A single African currency, if realized, would radically redefine Africa’s social, political and economic landscapes and position the continent on a solid footing to tackle the enormous challenges of the 21st century.

This plan is poised to offer an African market with no internal frontiers in which the free movement of goods, persons, services and capital is ensured. A single currency stands for an Africa of unity, integration and strength. However, there is a possibility of potential failure of a single currency if implemented haphazardly with enormous consequences to not only Africa’s image but also the member states’ economies and, ultimately, the citizens.

Irrespective of the challenges and opportunities, a single currency will not just solve Africa’s problems overnight and it would be a mistake to hedge all the future developments of this continent on this venture.

As the new chairman of the African Union, Libyan Muammar al-Gaddafi, goes to work towards realizing the United States of Africa (by the way, I prefer, Union of African States), it is important that we evaluate this project beyond politics and solidarity. While it is possible to be carried away by the success of the Euro, it is imperative that African leaders understand that the EU has been cooperating for decades and it took many years to realize the single currency after the Treaty of Rome. Signed by six nations  (France, Germany, Belgium, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands) on 25 March 1957, the Treaty created the European Economic Community (EEC) that provided the foundations for European unity based on the common values of peace, freedom, equality, the rule of law and democracy. Today, the EEC is the world’s largest free trade area.

An African equivalent of the Treaty of Rome is the Abuja Treaty signed on June 3, 1991. That Treaty created the African Economic Community (AEC). AEC provides the platforms for the larger African market for negotiating favorable trading terms bilaterally and globally, boosting investment and economic diversifications. A larger market will support economies of scale, better market access and production efficiency through competition.

In addition, economically integrated Africa could provide a stable exchange rate, increase cross-border trade with efficient banking clearing and payment systems. There will be more potential for improved consumer welfare, stronger political and security ties in the continent. It promises to offer better fiscal and monetary cooperation among states with long-term macroeconomic stability.

Nonetheless, despite these potential benefits, the problems of poor transport and communication structures in Africa continue to limit more intra-regional and intra-continental trades among members. The incessant political tensions across the regions continue to affect the creation and expansion of trade. From South Africa to Nigeria, African nations continue to trade heavily with their ex-colonial rulers over African Union partners. As a result, many African products get to member states via Europe. For many of the fiscally undisciplined nations, a loss of national autonomy on macroeconomic policy could be challenging. Losing autonomy on currency devaluation and revaluation, fiscal and monetary policies on interest and exchange rates will present major worries across African capitals.

How this integration will play out is still not clear. Take for example, Francophone Africa is considered an ‘undertrader’ despite the CFA franc zone having one of the most extensive monetary unions in the world. Projected data in case of doubling of trade (from integration) suggests that some of the five regional economic communities will have net welfare gains, while others will have losses. Yet, while the feasibility and desirability of a united African currency union could be debatable, the structure and dynamics of the globalizing world makes economic integration a necessity if the continent must survive global competition.

All the continent has to do is to approach the adoption of the single currency cautiously. The African Union must work to strengthen the regional economic communities (REC) for better currency unions and financial integrations.  This will involve transforming them, I suggest, into Knowledge Economic Communities (KEC) where knowledge will become the main factor of production with coherent trade shocks among member states. This means more funding for science education, better information networks and transportation systems, revamped innovation and entrepreneurial environment and vibrant democratic institutions. Afterwards, these KECs will converge to a single African economy of one currency to be managed by a continent-wide supranational central bank. A knowledge economy Africa with our vast resources will transform every aspect of modern commerce and industry and move millions out of poverty.

Ndubuisi Ekekwe, a doctoral student at the Johns Hopkins University, United States, is attending an African Union Congress in March 2009