Global financial markets opened the week on a cautious note as escalating military conflict in the Gulf pushed oil prices above $90 a barrel, reigniting inflation concerns and raising fresh questions about whether central banks will be forced to keep interest rates higher for longer.
At the same time, investors are bracing for a pivotal week of corporate earnings from technology giants that could determine whether the artificial intelligence-led stock market rally can regain momentum after a sharp selloff.
Equities weakened alongside government bonds, indicating growing investor caution as higher energy prices threatened to reverse the recent improvement in inflation data. The move comes after U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly declined last week, briefly boosting hopes that the Federal Reserve could delay further monetary tightening.
Instead, geopolitical developments have shifted the focus back to inflation risks.
Brent crude climbed 2.4% to $90.18 per barrel, its highest level in more than a month, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.1% to $84.18 after the United States launched a ninth consecutive day of military strikes against Iran, which responded by attacking targets across the region. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically important energy chokepoints, remained severely disrupted, with only a handful of vessels passing through on Sunday as Tehran claimed responsibility for striking two ships.
The renewed disruption has heightened fears over global energy supplies. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil consumption normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning any prolonged closure could have far-reaching consequences for inflation, economic growth, and financial markets.
“The longer the strait remains closed and the war escalates, the greater the risk that oil prices will have to rise to around $150 per barrel to bring demand down to match the hit to supply,” said Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy at AMP. “This is not our base case but it’s a high risk again.”
Higher oil revives inflation fears as AI earnings come under scrutiny
The rebound in crude prices has complicated the outlook for central banks just days after softer U.S. inflation figures had encouraged investors to expect a less aggressive Federal Reserve. Markets are now pricing in about 29 basis points of additional Fed tightening by year-end, while futures imply roughly a 60% probability of another interest-rate increase as early as September.
JPMorgan Chief Economist Bruce Kasman said the balance of risks has shifted toward an earlier tightening cycle than previously anticipated.
“Our forecast is for a more gradual turn toward a Fed hike in 2027, but the balance of risks is shifting in the direction of an earlier hike than expected,” he said, pointing to increasingly hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials.
The changing outlook pushed the yield on the benchmark 30-year U.S. Treasury back above the psychologically important 5% level, a threshold closely watched by investors because it raises borrowing costs across the economy while making fixed-income assets more attractive relative to equities.
Higher bond yields also present a particular challenge for technology companies whose valuations depend heavily on expectations of future earnings growth.
That pressure has become increasingly evident in semiconductor stocks, which have led global markets over the past two years on enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 10% last week, leaving it nearly 20% below its June record high as investors questioned whether AI-related valuations had become stretched after an extraordinary rally. Investor sentiment was further shaken on Friday after Chinese artificial intelligence company Moonshot unveiled its new Kimi K3 open-weight AI model, claiming performance approaching Anthropic’s flagship Fable model.
The announcement amplified concerns that increasingly capable open-source AI models from China could intensify competitive pressure on leading U.S. AI developers while reducing pricing power across the sector.
Against that backdrop, this week’s earnings season has taken on heightened importance.
Investors will closely scrutinize results from Alphabet, Tesla and Intel, looking not only for earnings growth but also for fresh evidence that massive investments in AI infrastructure continue to generate meaningful financial returns.
Despite recent volatility, Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian remains optimistic, forecasting overall S&P 500 earnings to exceed consensus expectations by roughly 5%, translating into approximately 28% year-on-year growth.
Technology companies are expected to account for more than half of total earnings growth, with semiconductor companies projected to deliver an extraordinary 130% increase in profits from a year earlier, highlighting the extent to which AI continues to dominate corporate earnings expectations.
Those forecasts helped stabilize U.S. equity futures despite broader market uncertainty. Nasdaq futures edged 0.2% higher, while S&P 500 futures were little changed. European markets remained subdued, with EURO STOXX 50, DAX, and FTSE futures all trading around flat to modestly lower levels.
Asian markets presented a mixed picture. Japan’s Nikkei was closed for a public holiday after suffering a 6.4% decline last week in a technology-led selloff. South Korea’s chip-heavy Kospi dropped another 4.1%, extending last week’s nearly 9% plunge as leveraged retail investors continued unwinding positions following the sharp correction in semiconductor shares. In contrast, Chinese blue-chip stocks advanced 1.4%, supported by optimism surrounding domestic technology companies and expectations of further policy support.
The combination of rising oil prices and elevated bond yields also poses fresh challenges for the European Central Bank, which meets later this week.
Although policymakers are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.25% following June’s increase, investors will focus on guidance regarding future policy. Markets are already pricing in almost a full ECB rate hike in September, with expectations that policy rates could reach 2.75% early next year if inflation pressures persist.
Currency markets remained relatively stable. The euro traded near $1.1442, while the U.S. dollar hovered around 162.36 yen, close to its strongest level in nearly four decades and keeping pressure on Japanese authorities, who have repeatedly warned they could intervene if speculative selling drives the yen materially weaker. Sterling held steady near $1.3462 as investors awaited Britain’s incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s appointment of a new Chancellor.
In commodity markets, the rise in government bond yields limited demand for non-yielding safe-haven assets. Spot gold slipped 0.1% to around $4,013 an ounce, giving back some recent gains as investors balanced geopolitical uncertainty against the prospect of higher global interest rates.
The week’s market direction is therefore likely to be determined by two competing forces. One, escalating tensions in the Middle East threaten to keep energy prices elevated, potentially delaying interest-rate cuts globally. Two, a critical wave of technology earnings is expected to test whether corporate fundamentals remain strong enough to justify lofty AI-related valuations after months of exceptional market gains.
Together, they are expected to shape investor sentiment across global markets in the weeks ahead.
