Canada’s main stock index climbed to a fresh record on Monday, powered by a rally in mining shares as investors grew more optimistic that diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran could eventually ease one of the biggest geopolitical threats hanging over global markets.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.7% to 34,778.98 points in morning trading, extending gains after breaking above its previous March peak last week.
The advance reflected a broad recovery in investor risk appetite after President Donald Trump said over the weekend that a peace agreement with Iran had been “largely negotiated,” potentially paving the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments.
Although Washington and Tehran later downplayed expectations for an immediate breakthrough, markets interpreted the diplomatic signals as reducing the probability of a prolonged disruption to global energy supplies and inflation.
“There have been repeated false hopes of a resolution, but this is how markets trade,” said Brian Madden.
“Even a non-zero chance the conflict ends is enough to push stocks higher and oil lower, though we’re not 100% convinced this is the real deal,” Madden added.
The strongest gains on the Toronto market came from materials stocks, which surged 3.1% as gold prices climbed on the back of a weaker US dollar and easing concerns that the Federal Reserve would need to keep interest rates elevated for longer.
Mining companies with exposure to precious metals led the benchmark higher. Aya Gold & Silver, Hudbay Minerals, and Americas Gold and Silver all rose more than 5%, benefiting from renewed flows into gold-linked assets.
The move reinforced the growing divergence inside commodity markets. While gold gained as investors reassessed the inflation outlook, energy stocks weakened sharply as crude prices fell.
The TSX energy sector dropped 2.1%, the only major segment in negative territory, after US oil prices slid nearly 6% toward $91 a barrel amid expectations that reduced tensions in the Gulf could stabilize supply routes through Hormuz.
The Strait remains central to market sentiment because roughly one-fifth of global oil trade passes through the narrow waterway. Any indication that shipping flows could normalize tends to quickly pressure oil prices lower while lifting equities more broadly.
The latest rally also reflects how resilient Canadian equities have remained despite months of geopolitical volatility and concerns over slowing global growth. The TSX has been supported by a combination of strong commodity-linked earnings, relatively stable domestic economic conditions, and continued strength in the country’s banking sector.
Financial stocks, which carry the heaviest weighting on the Canadian benchmark, have been among the market’s strongest performers this month. The sector has risen roughly 5.5% in May ahead of quarterly earnings reports expected later this week from major lenders, including Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, and Bank of Montreal.
Investors will be closely watching those results for signs of how higher borrowing costs, elevated consumer debt, and geopolitical uncertainty are affecting loan growth and credit quality across Canada’s financial system.
Markets are also turning attention toward trade policy as officials from Canada, the United States, and Mexico begin the first formal negotiations tied to the review of the continental free trade agreement in Mexico.
The talks are expected to test the durability of North American economic integration at a time when governments are increasingly prioritizing supply-chain security, industrial policy, and domestic manufacturing capacity.
For Canadian markets, the convergence of easing geopolitical fears, lower oil prices, and resilient corporate earnings has created a more supportive backdrop for equities, even as investors remain cautious about whether diplomacy between Washington and Tehran can produce a lasting settlement.
Analysts said the latest rally underscores how sensitive global markets remain to developments in the Middle East, with even tentative signs of de-escalation capable of reshaping expectations around inflation, interest rates, and commodity prices within hours.






