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Nigeria’s Inflation Rate Climbs to 27.33% in October, As the Cost of Goods & Services Soars

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Nigeria’s inflation rate surged to 27.33% in October, marking an increase from the previous month’s rate of 26.72%, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Wednesday.

The month-on-month analysis revealed a rise of 0.61 percentage points from September 2023.

On a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 6.24 percentage points higher than in October 2022, where the rate stood at 21.09%. This reflects a significant acceleration in inflationary pressures over the past year, underlining economic challenges.

This upward movement in the headline inflation rate reflects the challenges faced by the Nigerian economy, with the soaring cost of living tied largely to food inflation. However, the data indicates that various economic factors, including policy changes and external influences, have influenced the inflation trajectory.

The food inflation rate for October 2023 quickened to 31.52% on a year-on-year basis, indicating a 7.80 percentage point increase compared to the rate recorded in October 2022 (23.72%). Factors contributing to this surge include the removal of subsidies on petrol and other government policies, impacting the prices of goods and services.

“The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending October 2023 over the previous twelve-month average was 26.33 percent, which was a 6.50 percent points increase from the average annual rate of change recorded in October 2022 (19.83 per cent),” the NBS noted.

The depreciation of the naira, by over 50% in both official and parallel FX markets, following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to collapse all forex windows into the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window, has added to inflationary pressures.

Also, President Bola Tinubu’s announcement in May regarding the removal of the petrol subsidy has contributed to the current economic hardships faced by many Nigerians, with an attendant increase in the prices of essential goods and services.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) responded to the high inflation by raising its benchmark lending rate to 18.75% in July. The bank asserted that this rate hike had made a substantial difference in moderating the inflation rate. However, concerns remain about the impact of inflation on the cost of living and economic stability.

In response to the increasing food prices, President Tinubu declared a State of Emergency on food insecurity in July, emphasizing the inclusion of food and water availability and affordability within the purview of the National Security Council.

The agency indicated that the main contributors to the rise in the headline index at the divisional level were food and non-alcoholic beverages (14.16%), housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuel (4.57%), clothing and footwear (2.09%), and transport (1.78%).

Other notable contributors include furnishings, household equipment, and maintenance (1.37%), education (1.08%), health (0.82%), miscellaneous goods and services (0.45%), restaurant and hotels (0.33%), alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and kola (0.30%), recreation and culture (0.19%), and communication (0.19%).

The report highlighted that on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in October 2023 was 1.73%, which was 0.37% lower than the rate recorded in September 2023 (2.10%). This indicates that the rate of increase in the average price level in October 2023 was less than the rate in September 2023.

Furthermore, the percentage change in the average Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the twelve months ending October 2023 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 23.44%, showing a 5.57% increase compared to the 17.86% recorded in October 2022, according to the report.

Experts have recommended to the central bank the option of lowering interest rates as a strategy to alleviate inflationary pressures. Despite these suggestions, there is an anticipation that the interest rate may undergo another upward review. It’s worth noting that previous increases in interest rates have not succeeded in effectively curbing the persistent rise in inflation.

Improving Food Preservation in Nigeria

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Spices in markets

Nigeria is a country with a large population and a rich agricultural potential. However, it faces many challenges in preserving and processing its food products, especially fruits and vegetables, which are highly perishable and prone to post-harvest losses. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Nigeria loses about 40% of its annual food production due to poor post-harvest management.

One of the indicators of economic development and living standards is the ownership of household appliances, such as refrigerators. Refrigerators are essential for preserving food, reducing food waste, and improving food safety and quality. However, not all countries have the same level of access to refrigeration, and there are significant disparities across regions and income levels.

According to the World Bank, in 2019, only 38% of households in India owned a refrigerator, compared to 99% in China and 98% in Brazil. India’s refrigerator ownership rate was also lower than some of its African counterparts, such as Nigeria (22%) and Ghana (37%). These figures reflect the challenges that many developing countries face in providing reliable and affordable electricity, as well as the low purchasing power of a large segment of their population.

There are several factors that affect the demand and supply of refrigerators in these countries. On the demand side, some of the barriers include the high cost of refrigerators, the lack of awareness of their benefits, the cultural preferences for fresh food, and the limited availability of credit and financing options. On the supply side, some of the challenges include the lack of domestic production capacity, the high import tariffs and taxes, the poor quality and durability of refrigerators, and the inadequate after-sales service and maintenance.

To increase the refrigerator ownership rate in these countries, there is a need for concerted efforts from various stakeholders, such as governments, manufacturers, retailers, consumers, and civil society. Some of the possible interventions include:

Subsidizing the cost of refrigerators for low-income households or providing them with vouchers or cash transfers to purchase them. Promoting energy efficiency standards and labels for refrigerators to reduce their energy consumption and environmental impact. Educating consumers about the benefits of refrigeration for food preservation and health outcomes. Encouraging local production and assembly of refrigerators to create jobs and reduce dependence on imports.

Improving the quality and reliability of refrigerators by enforcing quality control measures and warranties. Expanding the distribution network and service centers for refrigerators to increase their availability and accessibility. Developing innovative business models and financing schemes for refrigerators, such as pay-as-you-go systems or leasing arrangements.

Refrigerators are more than just appliances; they are enablers of economic development and social well-being. By increasing their ownership rate in developing countries, we can help millions of people improve their living standards and achieve their aspirations.

Some of the factors that contribute to this problem are:

Lack of adequate infrastructure, such as cold chains, storage facilities, processing plants, and transportation networks. Lack of access to modern technologies, such as industrial dryers, sorting machines, packaging materials, and preservation methods. Lack of knowledge and skills among farmers and processors on how to handle, process, and store food products safely and hygienically. Lack of market linkages and incentives for farmers and processors to invest in quality improvement and value addition.

To address these challenges, Nigeria needs to adopt a holistic approach that involves the following strategies:

Promoting indigenous food preservation and processing methods, such as sun drying, fermentation, germination, and soaking, which are low-cost, environmentally friendly, and culturally acceptable. Creating food processing opportunities for entrepreneurs, especially women and youth, who can use locally available resources and equipment to produce value-added products, such as dried fruits, jams, juices, sauces, snacks, etc.

Providing training and extension services to farmers and processors on best practices for post-harvest handling, processing, and storage of food products. Improving access to finance and technology for farmers and processors to enable them to acquire modern equipment and materials for food preservation and processing. Strengthening market linkages and policies for farmers and processors to enhance their competitiveness and profitability in the domestic and export markets.

By implementing these strategies, Nigeria can reduce its food losses, increase its food security, create employment opportunities, generate income, and improve the quality of life for its people.

Economic Woes Cast Shadows on Tinubu’s Early Presidency, Amid Public Outcry and Loan-Seeking Approach

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Barely five months since President Bola Tinubu assumed office, the Nigerian economy has maintained an accelerated downward trajectory – resulting in public outcry. Inflation has risen to 27.33%, triggered by some of the president’s economic reforms, including the fuel subsidy removal and the floating of the FX market.

The backdrop of the soaring cost of living, against the meager earnings of about $30 monthly minimum wage in Nigeria, is increasingly fueling the public outcry. Coming from eight years of what many have described as the worst leadership in Nigeria, under former President Muhammadu Buhari, the Nigerian people can’t wait for economic relief under the new government.

Alas, the Tinibu administration, under intense pressure to ameliorate people’s suffering, is beginning to cry out.

On Monday evening, in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, Tinubu said that his administration inherited serious liabilities from the previous government but assured that he would not make any excuses.

This is as the President has advanced negotiations concerning a multi-billion dollar infrastructure finance facility from the Islamic Development Bank to fund a multi-sectoral portfolio of infrastructure projects at the federal and sub-national levels in Nigeria.

President Tinubu in a statement issued by his Special Adviser on Media and Publicity, Chief Ajuri Ngelale said: “We have serious deficits in port infrastructure, power infrastructure, and agro-allied facilities that will enable sustainable food security in our country. These deficits present an unrivalled opportunity for savvy investors in a market that is by far the largest on the continent.

“We inherited serious liabilities, but also assets from our predecessors. We do not make any excuses.”

The president’s declaration found reinforcement in the remarks of the National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu. Speaking at the Chief of Defence Intelligence Annual Conference 2023 in Abuja, where he addressed leaders under the theme “Leveraging Defence Diplomacy and Effective Regional Collaboration for Enhanced National Security,” Ribadu asserted that the current administration inherited an economically challenged and depleted financial situation.

In his speech, Ribadu did not mince words, stating, “Yes, we’re facing budgetary constraints. It is okay for me to tell you. Fine, it is important for you to know that we inherited a difficult situation, literally a bankrupt country, no money, to a point where we can say that all the money we’re getting now, we’re paying back what was taken. It is serious!”

At the same time, the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) confessed that the financial regulator does not have the “magic wand” to change the nation’s current economic dynamics.

“The CBN does not have a magic wand that can be waved at the current economic challenges,” he said.

While several economists have admitted that Tinubu’s administration inherited a deplorable economic situation from Buhari, they have expressed concern that the growing outcry from the present government signals cluelessness.

Although Tinubu said he was not making excuses by voicing out the poor state of the economy, the Nigerian masses bearing the brunt are seeing the complaints as a sign that his administration lacks the wits it takes to revive the economy.

One focal point of criticism is the administration’s reliance on loans to mitigate revenue shortfalls – which is largely tied to the crisis in the oil sector – the nation’s major means of revenue generation. Another notable factor is the extravagant utilization of borrowed funds. In a recent revelation, the 2023 Supplementary Budget was identified for its opulent expenditures earmarked for public officeholders. This includes allocations running into multibillion naira for activities such as building renovations, the acquisition of luxury cars, and even the purchase of a yacht.

The president’s trip to Saudi Arabia involves seeking financial assistance from the kingdom and lenders. The presidency announced that Tinubu secured Saudi’s commitment to provide funding to boost Nigeria’s ailing foreign exchange market, and he also entered advanced negotiations with the Islamic Development Bank for a multi-billion dollar infrastructure finance facility.

These are in addition to other multibillion-dollar loans secured since Tinubu assumed office. Critics argue that he is mirroring the approach of his predecessor, who embarked on a borrowing spree that skyrocketed Nigeria’s public debt stock to N87 trillion, without tangible results to justify such borrowing.

As the economic challenges persist, Tinubu’s administration’s responses determine its readiness to navigate the delicate balance between addressing inherited issues and demonstrating effective leadership to steer the country toward recovery.

The Death of Unipolarity and the Emergence of Multipolarity in World Order

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There is no such thing as an island of power; power is typically attained by possessing a great deal of knowledge along with additional resources like labour, capital, and raw materials for the aim of discovering and seizing chances for bigger gains. Prior to modernization, countries all over the world engaged in trade and cultural exchanges with the aim of capturing value that could not be created due to the previously mentioned lack of resources and knowledge. 

Then, historical analyses show that prior to participating in cross-socioeconomic and political activities, political leaders hardly ever emphasized the newly adopted approaches—unipolar, bipolar, and multipolar. But over time, the concepts of true friendship in geopolitics have been steadily undermined by modernization and the many ideologies of political leaders, which frequently influence international policies and initiatives of states. The three strategies, also referred to as geopolitical systems, govern more than only the interactions between political leaders. The systems are also essential to the planning and implementation of cross-border commercial partnerships. 

According to a number of sources, the world saw bipolarity during the Cold War era, with the US and the USSR as the two superpowers; however, unipolarity resulted from the conclusion of the Cold War, with the US emerging as the only superpower in the world in the 1990s and 2000s. In certain cases, geopolitical experts think that the 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall marked a unipolar moment.

Twelve years later, in 2001, economist Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs invented the term BRIC to refer to a group of emerging markets—Brazil, Russia, India, and China—that are expanding quickly and have the potential to challenge the G-7 industrialized economies’ economic hegemony. The group’s first official summit took place in 2009, and South Africa joined in 2010 to form BRICS.

The Growth of Multipolarity: The Case of BRICS

Ever since South Africa was admitted as the fifth member, individuals and groups from a variety of sectors have continued to be interested in the concept of a multipolar world. The decision by some of the established members to welcome new members from the Global South’s fast expanding economies has made the multipolar world debate more appealing. People outside of the geopolitical arena are likely to profit from the new geopolitical system, whether it be BRIC, BRICS, or BRICS+. This is especially true for the population of the nations who are marginalized or undervalued by those that continue to adhere to the previous geopolitical systems. 

Commentators feel that multilateralism will become even more powerful as political and commercial sectors continue to look for solutions to the various global issues that plague the world, given the aggressive transformation of the BRIC countries. This is based on the idea that a multipolar system defends the rights of smaller countries to exist as equal partners in the global economy and to possess true economic growth, rather than viewing them as the underdogs. 

With the approval of the new members, our analyst adds that more nations are emerging as centers of multipolar geopolitical structure as the world aspires for mutual cooperation, collaboration and benefits. These will bring about a more sustainable industrial revolution as well as industrialization, innovation, and digitization. 

Strengthening Multipolarity

One nation merits recognition even as discussions about the new system rage on. Russia has continuously distinguished itself in the midst of many storms by establishing and spearheading diverse discourses on how nations ought to respect one another as the world looks for answers to shared issues. Russia has consistently used summits and a variety of national and international fora to have thought-provoking talks in order to successfully push narratives across the system.

Over the past five years, political and business leaders from Russia have explained to other countries and their business leaders that ideological, political, and cultural differences should not be the reason for isolating any nation. This has been done both inside and outside of Russia’s borders. Over the years, Moscow and St. Petersburg have served as discussion hubs for the system with a collaborative focus on co-value creation and capture. Great political and economic leaders have congregated on platforms offered by the two cities to discuss issues ranging from health to education, technology to agriculture and security, and the future of the multipolar system in geopolitics. 

The topic of Russian language propagation in the multilateral platform’s member states was covered at one of the platforms; in particular, the necessity of advancing Russian linguistic and cultural diplomacy in Argentina, Algeria, Morocco, China, and India was highlighted.

The intervention of Émile Perfect SIMB, a well-known industrialist in the finance and crypto-currencies sector, owner of the SIMB GROUP and also President of the African Organization of Russophony, was noted. “It is important for us Africans to learn the Russian language, because it represents an opportunity for development, it allows African students to acquire specialized and qualified skills, we work to build a relationship of equals and mutual benefits with Moscow, even in university education, Russian citizens can study the languages of our continent, and vice versa African students can learn the language of Pushkin,” notes the famous exponent of the African financial environment.

It was emphasized: “any type of relationship between states can be developed through cultural diplomacy, knowledge of the language, the history of the civilization, specific particularities, in a climate of good neighborhood, because it is precisely the diplomacy of the first contact, such as culture, which generates trust, which is then transformed into business, commercial and financial opportunities.”

Welcome Remy Security to Tekedia Capital

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Tekedia Capital is excited to welcome US-based Remy Security into our community. The startup uses artificial intelligence (AI) to help security teams conduct design reviews quickly and effectively, reducing the cost and effort of proactively securing products.

By leveraging large language models (LLMs) to analyze design documents, Remy makes it easy for security teams to prioritize and review engineering designs that carry the biggest business risks, helping companies create products faster  without sacrificing security. More so, its foundational technology has applications in compliance, legal and financial reviews.

To learn more about RemySec, go here .

For more on Tekedia Capital, go here.