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Elon Musk-Owned Social Networking Platform X Valuation Drops to $19 Billion

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Elon Musk-owned social networking platform formerly known as Twitter, has recorded a drop in valuation to $19 billion, from the $44 billion he paid for it last year.

The recent drop in X valuation shows a 55 percent drop in value from when Musk purchased the company last year in October. X’s recent valuation of $19 billion is however higher than the projected $16.9 billion that Fidelity which has a stake in the company valued in August.

Recent documentation about the platform’s stock awards disclosed that X would be providing the equity for $45 per share with employees able to accumulate restricted stock units over time. According to the company, employees who were issued shares under the previous management would still receive cash payments totaling $54.20 for those shares.

In March this year, Musk told employees that he believed the company was worth $20 billion which he described as an “inverse start-up”.

Recall that when Musk purchased the platform for $44 billion last year, he acknowledged that he had overpaid for it, which included $33.5 billion in equity and a share price of $54.20.

During an interview with media personality Tucker Carlson in April this year, Musk admitted that the purchase of X was not currently financially smart.

Since his takeover, Musk has implemented many changes on the platform, from laying off workers to the introduction of a verified subscription feature, amongst several others.

X lost 50 of its top 100 advertisers since Musk took over. Half of its top 100 advertisers appear to no longer be advertising on the website, in the wake of Musk’s decision to “revamp” the site.

As of Nov. 21, the brands accounted for almost “$2 billion in spending on the platform since 2020, and over $750 million in advertising in 2022 alone,” adding to a general downward shift in advertising dollars.

Also, Musk’s erratic decisions have led the company to reportedly witness a 60% drop in sales.

However, despite the drop in advertisements on the platform, Musk remains optimistic about the company’s growth strategy with his plans to transform it into an “everything app”.

In a meeting organized on the first anniversary of the acquisition of the platform, Musk said, “We’re rapidly transforming the company from sort of what it was, Twitter 1.0, to the everything app with an all-inclusive feature app where you can do anything you want on our system”.

Musk envisions X as an all-encompassing financial platform that covers every aspect of users’ financial lives, from money and securities to eliminating the need for traditional bank accounts.

He also spoke about including new features to the microblogging site including dating service. With the introduction of so many features on the platform, several analysts are optimistic that the platform will see a surge in its revenue.

According to Bloomberg, Musk explained that online platforms such as YouTube, LinkedIn, and Cision PR Newswire are seen as potential competitors of the X as it Decelerates towards becoming an all-in-one app.

One year after Elon Musk bought Twitter, the company now known as X is valued at $19 billion, or less than half the $44 billion purchase price. Multiple outlets are reporting on the new valuation, citing internal emails offering employees equity at $45 a share via restricted stock units. The valuation was “determined by the Board of Directors” — in other words, Musk himself, who has not appointed a board, notes The Verge. X has had a tumultuous year: Many advertisers left due to relaxed moderation under Musk, and in July he said the company was “still negative cash flow” because of it. In a disclosure Monday, Fidelity wrote down the value of its X shares even more, by 65%. (LinkedIn)

The New Naira FX Rules Must Consider Variables Like Ports Because They Matter

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Naira USD

Waiting for the new rules to do the magic: “The government aims to expand the official market to include all legitimate transactions while cracking down on the illicit parallel market for foreign currency. The government sees a “fair price” for the dollar at N650 to N750. Currently, the official exchange rate is around N800 per dollar.”

Nigeria is planning to introduce new foreign exchange rules to reduce the gap between the official and parallel market rates for the naira, according to Bloomberg.

As part of the move, the government hopes to close the more than 45% gap by year-end, according to Taiwo Oyedele, chair of the presidential committee on fiscal policy and tax reforms. This means clearing a backlog of dollar demand, bolstering the naira forward market, and setting transparent rules for the official market’s operation.

‘…according to the sector operators, the cost of exporting 100 tons of cargo in Nigeria is $35,000, compared to $4,000 in Ghana…. “Today, the leading ports for West Africa are in Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, and Benin Republic. All these countries have modernised their port management systems, leaving Nigeria far behind’ – Akinwunmi Adesina, African Development Bank President/ AriseTV.

The Port of Lome is the busiest  port in West Africa now because most Nigerian importers prefer it over the decades-old ones in Nigeria; Togo has a population of about 9.3 million people, to Nigeria’s 220 million.  So, as we work on the new rules, we have to pay attention to things which continue to hurt the Naira.

Yes, Nigeria has run down most anchors of industrialization and export services to the ground , and that is why this Naira FX fight should not be left for the central bankers. Simply, we have lost grounds on many dimensions of regional comparative advantages, making things exceedingly tough for businesses to export and improve Nigeria’s balance of trade and payment. Left or right, we must reverse those steps in order to advance the economy, and then help the Naira to compete globally in the league of currencies.

Nigeria to Introduce New Rules Before December to Close FX Gaps

Nigeria to Introduce New Rules Before December to Close FX Gaps

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Nigeria is planning to introduce new foreign exchange rules to reduce the gap between the official and parallel market rates for the naira, according to Bloomberg.

As part of the move, the government hopes to close the more than 45% gap by year-end, according to Taiwo Oyedele, chair of the presidential committee on fiscal policy and tax reforms. This means clearing a backlog of dollar demand, bolstering the naira forward market, and setting transparent rules for the official market’s operation.

“We think all of that will happen before December, and maybe in a matter of a couple of weeks we will begin to see the results, such that before the end of the calendar year, naira should find its true value, not the one that is being done currently in the parallel market,” Bloomberg quoted Oyedele to have said.

The government aims to expand the official market to include all legitimate transactions while cracking down on the illicit parallel market for foreign currency. The government sees a “fair price” for the dollar at N650 to N750. Currently, the official exchange rate is around N800 per dollar.

Ongoing Efforts to Stabilize the Naira

Since Nigeria floated its FX market in mid-June, allowing the naira to trade more freely against the dollar, there has been a significant gap between the official and parallel-market rates, leading to issues of liquidity and the attractiveness of the parallel market’s premium.

Oyedele said the divergence between the official and parallel-market rates “means you are sucking liquidity and supply from the official market to the parallel market, because everyone wants the premium.”

The government has undertaken efforts to reverse this flow of dollars from the official FX window to the parallel market, with measures such as executive orders for dollar-denominated instruments and bonds. In addition, the central bank aims to bring more clarity to how the forex market operates.

The government has also made efforts to boost FX liquidity in the official market, aiming to force prices down in the parallel market. Part of the efforts was disclosed by finance minister, Wale Edun, at a summit in Abuja last week, that Nigeria expects to receive $10 billion of inflows in the coming weeks that will help ease liquidity and clear the backlog of overdue forward contracts weighing on the naira.

Also, President Bola Tinubu has signed two executive orders intending to stabilize Nigeria’s currency and attract investments. One order enables the issuance of dollar-denominated instruments for Nigerians holding dollars locally, while the second facilitates the issuance of dollar-denominated bonds for Nigerians abroad and foreign investors.

These measures are intended to reverse the flow of dollars from the official FX window to the parallel market, providing alternative channels for currency usage and investment. The executive orders are in the process of being officially announced.

However, these efforts have been juxtaposed by prevaricating management decisions of the central bank in striking a balance between a more flexible exchange rate system and maintaining stability in the currency. For instance, while the central bank initially indicated in June that the naira’s exchange rate would be determined by supply and demand, it later appeared to reintroduce controls to stabilize the currency following a 40% devaluation.

Naira Performance

However, the naira has appreciated in the market in recent days, a performance attributed to news that the government is working to secure a $10 billion loan to boost dollar liquidity.

But despite recent appreciation on the parallel market, the naira still faces a significant gap between the official and parallel rates. On the parallel market, the naira closed at N110/$ on Monday, compared to N1230/$ the previous Friday. In contrast, the official Investor & Exporter (I&E) window (newly renamed Nigerian automated foreign exchange market, NAFEM) closed at N993.82/$, weaker than the N789.94/$ the previous Friday.

Tekedia Investment and Portfolio Management program Begins on Nov 6; Register Now

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The next edition of Tekedia Investment and Portfolio Management program will begin on Nov 6. This program is designed to provide learners with hands-on experience in performing investment research, investing capital, and managing a portfolio. The program runs for 8 weeks and it is completely virtual. Besides some pre-recorded courseware developed by eminent capital market experts, the program includes live Zoom sessions (the first 4 weeks).

In the academic component, the program prepares learners to master the institutional structure, and fundamental concepts of asset valuation, in financial markets, using analytical tools to study the valuation of different types of securities. Fundamentally, learners are equipped to understand investment theory, portfolio development and management.

It is divided into 3 core components – Investment Fundamental and Tools; Laboratories, Research & Investment Capture; and Lessons Learned.  The next edition begins Nov 6, 2023.

Cost: $400 or N180,000 naira per participant. Register here 

Understanding Forex Market Analysis: Technical vs Fundamental

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The foreign exchange (forex) market is the largest and most liquid market in the world, with over $5 trillion traded daily. Successfully trading currencies requires a solid understanding of forex market analysis. There are two main approaches to analysing the forex market – technical analysis and fundamental analysis. Knowing the key differences between these two methods is crucial for new forex traders. In this article, we will explore both approaches and how they can be used together to make informed trading decisions.

An Introduction to Forex Trading

The forex market consists of trading pairs of currencies, like EUR/USD or GBP/JPY. The first currency listed is called the base currency, and the second is called the quote or counter currency. When you buy or sell a currency pair, you are speculating on whether the base currency will rise or fall against the quote currency.

Forex trading is conducted on margin, meaning you only have to put down a small percentage of the total trade value. Trading on margin allows for greater potential profits but also greater potential losses. Leverage should be used judiciously by beginning traders.

Technical Analysis – Reading the Charts

Technical analysis involves analysing charts and market data to identify trading opportunities. Some of the key tools used in technical analysis include:

Price action – Analysing historical price movements on a chart to find patterns. Common patterns include trends, breakouts, and reversals.

Indicators – Mathematical formulas that use price and volume data to calculate metrics like moving averages, relative strength, and volatility. These indicate overbought/oversold levels, momentum shifts, and trend strength.

Support and resistance levels – Price levels where buying or selling pressure prevents further price movement in one direction. These act as floor and ceiling levels where trends often reverse.

Technical analysts rely on the premise that current price movements can help predict future moves. Charts and indicators make it easier to identify trading opportunities and determine entry/exit points.

Fundamental Analysis – Understanding the Factors

Fundamental analysis involves evaluating the underlying factors that affect currency values. This includes:

Economic data – Key reports like GDP, employment, manufacturing, interest rates, and inflation that indicate the health of a nation’s economy. Strong economic data tends to boost a currency.

News and events – Major news stories, political events, and international relations that impact currency valuations.

Relative economic strengths – Comparing the relative strength of countries’ economic and financial data to predict currency movements. A weaker economy typically means a weaker currency.

Interest rate differentials – The difference between interest rates in two countries affects their currency valuation and traders’ carry trade strategies.

Fundamental analysts study these factors to gauge current sentiment and predict future valuation trends. For example, if the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the US Dollar would theoretically strengthen against other currencies.

Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis

Many forex traders use a combination of both technical and fundamental analysis. This gives a more holistic view of the market. The two approaches complement each other well.

Technical analysis helps traders identify opportune entry and exit levels for trades, while fundamental analysis provides the logic for why a currency movement is occurring. For example, a price chart may reveal a head and shoulders pattern signalling a potential reversal. Fundamental analysis can then be used to confirm if economic events support a reversal.

Executing Forex Trades

There are two main ways to trade forex:

  • Spot trading – Trading currency pairs directly at the current market price. Settlement of spot trades happens on a T+2 basis.
  • CFD trading – Trading a contract for difference (CFD) derivative that mirrors the value of the underlying currency pair. CFDs allow you to trade CFD on margin and take short as well as long positions.

Once you have identified a potential trading opportunity via analysis, you can execute a trade accordingly. With CFDs, you can trade with leverage to maximise your exposure with a small initial deposit. However, leverage also amplifies potential losses, so risk management is key.

Developing an Analytical Trading Plan

An effective trading plan requires incorporating both technical and fundamental analysis into your decision-making process. Here are some tips for developing a robust trading plan:

  • Identify key technical levels and indicators to watch
  • Keep up with fundamental drivers like economic data and news
  • Find trading opportunities where technicals and fundamentals align
  • Use technical entry and exit points along with fundamental logic
  • Employ proper risk management strategies
  • Maintain trading discipline according to your plan and rules

Continuously hone your analysis skills through practice, reviews and market observation. Stay adaptable in applying analysis to fit evolving market conditions.

The Benefits of Market Analysis in Forex

Implementing a structured approach to market analysis offers several benefits for forex traders:

  • Finds higher probability trading opportunities
  • Provides objective entry and exit points
  • Gives a logical basis for trades
  • Helps manage trading risks
  • Significantly improves trading success and profits

Combining technical and fundamental analysis provides a potent one-two punch for trading success. Learn to expertly apply both, and you will boost your trading potential in the exciting foreign exchange market. With proper analysis and risk management, you can successfully trade CFDs and potentially profit from the forex opportunities.