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Coinbase’s Q4 2025 Earnings Miss are Multifaceted, Spanning Short-Term Market Reactions

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

Coinbase Global (COIN) reported its Q4 2025 earnings (covering October-December 2025) after market close on February 12, 2026, and the results came in below Wall Street expectations amid a broader cryptocurrency market downturn.

Total revenue: $1.78 billion, missing analyst estimates of around $1.83–$1.85 billion; a miss of roughly 2.5–3.8% depending on the consensus source. Adjusted EPS: $0.66 per share, significantly below expectations of $0.86–$1.05, a larger miss on the earnings side, around 23–37%.

Transaction revenue: Fell to $982.7 million below $1 billion, down from prior periods due to weaker trading volumes and lower crypto prices. A GAAP net loss of approximately $667 million or -$2.49 per share, driven largely by unrealized losses on crypto holdings and investments, marking a swing from profitability in the year-ago quarter.

Subscription and services revenue provided some support at around $727 million, and the company highlighted operational strengths like doubled trading volume market share in 2025 overall, but the cyclical nature of crypto weighed heavily.

The earnings miss reflects a slowdown in crypto trading activity, with Bitcoin and other assets experiencing price declines into early 2026, reducing fee-based revenue despite solid user engagement in some areas.Regarding the stock (COIN): It dropped sharply on the news, closing down about 7.9% on February 12, 2026 from around $153 to $141.

Looking at the recent week roughly February 6–13, 2026, the stock has been under pressure overall, with notable declines in the days leading into and following earnings. From earlier February levels, it trended lower, aligning with a weekly decline on the order of 3% or more when factoring pre-earnings weakness and the post-earnings drop (though exact week-to-date figures vary by precise timeframe; the headline’s “falls 3% on the week” appears to capture the net performance amid volatility).

Shares showed some after-hours recovery in initial trading post-release but remain well below 2025 highs, reflecting investor concerns over the crypto “winter” cycle. Coinbase executives noted in their shareholder letter that crypto is inherently cyclical, and the current environment isn’t as dire fundamentally as sentiment suggests.

COIN shares closed down 7.9% on February 12 from around $153 to $141.09, with heavy volume reflecting investor disappointment over the revenue shortfall (3% miss on consensus) and especially the swing to a large GAAP net loss. Pre-market trading on February 13 showed some recovery attempts but the stock remains volatile and near recent lows.

The drop contributed to ongoing weekly weakness amid a softer crypto environment where Bitcoin hovers around $69K and other majors like ETH and SOL are also down modestly. This reinforces COIN’s high beta to crypto sentiment—earnings misses in downturns amplify downside more than beats do upside in rallies.

Several firms cut price targets post-release, Rosenblatt from $325 to $240, JPMorgan to ~$252–$290 range while maintaining overweight/buy ratings, citing limited near-term upside but viewing the dip as potentially overdone with regulatory tailwinds like the CLARITY Act possible in coming months.

Some see RSI oversold signals suggesting short-term bounce potential if crypto stabilizes. The miss drivers: Transaction revenue ~$983M fell due to lower trading volumes and crypto prices in late 2025.

Adjusted EPS ($0.66) missed by ~23–37%, while the GAAP net loss of ~$667M stemmed largely from non-cash items: ~$718M in unrealized losses on crypto holdings and investments and other charges. Revenue ($1.78B) was down ~5% QoQ and ~20–22% YoY, reflecting cyclical weakness despite diversification efforts.

Subscription and services revenue ~$727M held up better, supported by Coinbase One nearing 1M paid subscribers, up significantly, USDC-related income, staking, and institutional products like financing/derivatives. Full-year 2025 showed strength: trading volume doubled market share, total volume hit $5.2T, and the company met guidance in prior quarters.

Strong balance sheet: ~$11.3B in cash equivalents, $14B+ total resources, $1.7B in share repurchases offsetting dilution, and a new $2B authorization for opportunistic buybacks. Q1 2026 subscription/services projected at $550–$630M signaling continued cyclical headwinds but confidence in non-trading streams.

Brian Armstrong and Alesia Haas emphasized the “Everything Exchange” narrative working—record highs in products like Coinbase One, USDC balances, and derivatives/staking growth offsetting retail trading softness. This reduces reliance on volatile transaction fees, positioning Coinbase better for prolonged “crypto winter” phases compared to pure-play exchanges.

The results highlight crypto’s inherent boom-bust cycles—2025 was strong overall, but Q4 slowdown flipped profitability. Management views current sentiment as overly pessimistic relative to fundamentals, with early 2026 showing some volume rebounds. Prolonged weakness could pressure margins further.

Regulatory and political uncertainties persist, though positive developments could help. Institutional outflows and macro factors add near-term drag. Short-term, COIN remains a leveraged proxy for crypto recovery—down ~40% YTD amid broader market choppiness, but with potential for rebound on sentiment shifts or catalysts.

Long-term bulls see structural advantages outweighing cyclical pain, while bears worry about sustained deleveraging in a slow-growth environment. This miss underscores Coinbase’s vulnerability to crypto downturns but also its evolving moat through diversification and capital discipline.

The stock’s reaction feels sentiment-driven rather than a death knell—watch Bitcoin stability and Q1 guidance for the next leg.

 

 

Over $1T Gets Wiped from Equities as the S&P Falls More Than 1.5%

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

The S&P 500 closed down 1.57% dropping 108.71 points to 6,832.76, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.34% (669.42 points to 49,451.98) and the Nasdaq Composite sliding 2.03% (469.32 points to 22,597.15).

This move contributed to over $1 trillion in market capitalization being wiped out from equities in the session or broader recent selloff context, driven primarily by renewed fears over AI disruption. Investors rotated out of tech and software stocks amid concerns that advancing AI technologies from startups like Anthropic could cannibalize revenues of established players in software, services, and related sectors.

This has been described as a continuation of an “AI angst” or “SaaSpocalypse” theme that intensified earlier in February, with prior days already erasing massive value from Big Tech and software nearly $1 trillion from software stocks in earlier sessions.

The selloff was broad but tech-heavy, with notable drops in companies like Cisco (-12.3%), AppLovin (-19.7%), and others tied to AI capex or competitive threats. Broader factors included digestion of strong recent U.S. jobs data which reduced Fed rate cut expectations and anticipation of the January CPI inflation report released on February 13.

Gold and silver also fell sharply in tandem, despite their typical safe-haven status. This appears linked to the same dynamics: a stronger U.S. dollar from delayed rate cut bets, reduced safe-haven demand amid the equity rout, and a “liquidity flush” triggering leveraged position unwinds.

Silver plunged dramatically up to ~10% intraday on February 12, dropping below $76/oz from highs near $85, while gold fell over 2-3% below $5,000/oz from recent peaks above $5,100, settling around $4,955–$4,966.

Industrial metals like platinum and copper saw similar pressure. Markets were choppy heading into February 13 premarket (futures slightly down ~0.2–0.3%), with focus on the CPI data for further direction—economists expected cooling to ~2.5% y/y. This reflects ongoing volatility in early 2026, where AI “prove-it” skepticism, high valuations, and macro shifts have led to repeated sharp pullbacks after a strong late-2025 run.

The sharp equity selloff with the S&P 500 down over 1.5% and more than $1T in market cap erased—has spilled over into Bitcoin, which has shown high correlation with risk assets like tech stocks during this period rather than acting as a decoupled “digital gold.”

Bitcoin is currently trading around $69,000. It opened near $66,200–$66,300, hit highs around $67,100–$67,350, and lows dipping to $65,800–$65,900, reflecting a roughly 1–2% decline in the last 24 hours, continuing a multi-week downtrend.

This follows a close around $66,200–$66,900 yesterday, with intraday pressure aligning closely with the broader risk-off move in equities.Key impacts and context: Unlike traditional safe havens like gold, which fell but has shown periods of outperformance.

Bitcoin has behaved more like a growth/tech asset in this environment. It dropped sharply alongside Nasdaq/tech weakness amid AI disruption fears, delayed Fed rate cut expectations from strong jobs data, and macro uncertainty.

Correlations with equities remain elevated, while Bitcoin-gold correlation has weakened toward zero in recent months. BTC peaked above $126,000 in late 2025 but has shed nearly 48–50% since, entering a prolonged consolidation/correction phase. It’s on track for a fourth straight weekly decline, with sentiment indicators flirting with extreme fear levels.

On-chain signals show some long-term holder capitulation like realized profit/loss ratios dipping, miner deleveraging, and U.S. institutional outflows via Spot ETFs and Coinbase premium gaps staying negative for weeks.

The selloff isn’t isolated; altcoins and sentiment have weakened in tandem, with analysts like those at Standard Chartered warning of potential “final capitulation” toward lower levels before recovery. However, long-term views remain constructive— JPMorgan’s adjusted models point to $170,000–$266,000 targets based on reduced leverage and volatility dynamics.

Focus shifts (February 13) January CPI inflation report, which could influence Fed expectations and risk appetite. If equities stabilize or rebound, BTC could test resistance near $68,000–$70,000. A break below $65,000 might accelerate downside toward recent lows around $60,000–$61,000.

Institutional accumulation provides some underlying support, but short-term volatility remains high amid thin liquidity and forced unwinds. This reflects a classic risk-off rotation where Bitcoin has not decoupled as hoped, amplifying the equity wipeout’s effects rather than buffering them. The “prove-it” phase for crypto as a mature asset class continues amid these macro headwinds.

David Prinçay’s Attempted Home Invasion Underscores Rising Kidnappings in France 

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

David Prinçay, the CEO of Binance France, was targeted in an attempted home invasion referred to as a “home-jacking” in French reports.

According to reports from RTL and covered by crypto news outlets like Crypto Briefing, three hooded/masked men—described as an amateurish group—attempted to break into his apartment in Val-de-Marne around 7 a.m. They were armed and entered the apartment building, searching for his residence, but fled after finding he was not home.

The executive was unharmed, as he was away at the time. The suspects reportedly carried out or attempted a second home invasion later that morning in Vaucresson, before being arrested in Lyon. This incident occurs amid a broader rise in crypto-related crimes in France and globally, including home invasions, kidnappings, and extortion attempts targeting high-profile individuals or those perceived to hold significant cryptocurrency assets.

Authorities and industry figures have noted increasing risks as crypto adoption and visibility grow. Binance Co-CEO Yi He commented on social media that affected parties are safe and cooperating with law enforcement, though specific to this case, the CEO escaped harm due to his absence.

Prinçay was unharmed because he was not at home during the early morning attempt in Val-de-Marne. The three masked and armed suspects entered the building, mistakenly broke into the wrong apartment first, then accessed his residence, stole two mobile phones, and fled upon realizing he was absent. Binance Co-CEO Yi He publicly stated that affected Binance France employees and their families are safe and actively cooperating with law enforcement.

The group attempted a second home invasion later that morning in Vaucresson mistakenly targeting another resident, possibly another crypto figure. Police tracked them via surveillance, stolen phone signals, and vehicle pursuit, leading to their arrest in Lyon by the Brigade de Recherche et d’Intervention (BRI). The three suspects are in custody and under investigation.

This event underscores the escalating wave of “wrench attacks” in France: France has seen a sharp rise in such incidents, with reports indicating over 19-20 crypto-related violent attacks in recent periods, making it a leading hotspot in Europe, over 40% of global incidents in some analyses.

High-profile cases include involving family members of crypto entrepreneurs like Paymium’s Pierre Noizat or Ledger co-founders, armed robberies, and ransom demands, often linked to data leaks, public visibility of crypto wealth, or organized crime groups.

The amateurish nature of this attempt contrasts with more sophisticated prior cases but highlights how even perceived crypto affiliation makes individuals targets. The incident amplifies calls for better personal security among crypto holders, executives, and employees.

It serves as a reminder that as crypto adoption and asset values grow, so do real-world risks beyond digital threats. Binance France appears unaffected in terms of business continuity; the focus remains on cooperation with authorities rather than any internal fallout.

This fits into a pattern of increasing crypto-linked physical crimes in France and parts of Europe, prompting discussions on enhanced law enforcement, privacy measures and protective steps like anonymous living or security protocols for high-net-worth individuals in the sector.

While the direct consequences were limited, it reinforces the growing intersection of cryptocurrency visibility and physical criminal threats in France, urging greater caution in the community. No long-term personal or corporate updates on Prinçay have emerged yet, given the recency of the event.

Israel Arrests Individuals Using Classified Information to Bet on Polymarket

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

Israeli authorities have arrested multiple individuals and indicted two in connection with using classified military information to place bets on Polymarket, a prediction market platform, regarding Israeli military operations.

A joint investigation by the Shin Bet (domestic security agency), Israel Police, and the Defense Ministry’s security unit led to the arrests of several suspects, including military reservists. Two individuals—a military reservist and a civilian—were indicted in Tel Aviv on charges including serious security offenses, bribery, and obstruction of justice.

The suspects allegedly used non-public classified information to which reservists had access through their military roles to wager on outcomes related to military operations, such as strikes or events tied to the June 2025 12-day war with Iran.

Authorities described this as a “real security risk” to the military and state, marking what appears to be the first publicly known case of arrests linked to insider betting on a prediction market like Polymarket.

No details were released on the identities, exact ranks, or specific bets due to gag orders, but the case followed earlier media reports about suspicions of leaks used for accurate, profitable wagers on Israel-Iran military events.

This incident highlights emerging risks at the intersection of classified intelligence, blockchain-based prediction markets, and insider trading-like activity. Polymarket itself was not implicated in wrongdoing; the focus is on the alleged misuse of secret information by the bettors.

Discussions on X have linked this to a specific Polymarket user profile to “Rundeep” or “ricosuave666” that reportedly profited ~$150,000–$154,000 from a string of perfect predictions on related markets before going inactive, though official statements do not name individuals or confirm exact wallet ties.

The arrests of Israeli military reservists and a civilian for allegedly using classified information to place bets on Polymarket regarding military operations notably tied to the June 2025 Israel-Iran 12-day war carry significant implications across multiple dimensions.

National Security Risks for Israel

Israeli authorities, including the Shin Bet, IDF, and Defense Ministry, described these actions as a “real security risk” to operations and the state. Even without direct operational harm in this case, leaking or misusing classified details for personal gain could incentivize broader espionage or compromise sensitive intelligence.

The IDF labeled it a “grave ethical failure” and a “clear crossing of a red line,” signaling heightened internal scrutiny of personnel with access to secrets. This could lead to stricter protocols for reservists, enhanced monitoring of communications, or broader vetting to prevent future leaks.

This appears to be the first publicly documented instance worldwide where individuals faced criminal charges specifically for using non-public especially classified and government information to bet on a prediction platform like Polymarket. Previous suspicious cases raised eyebrows but didn’t result in arrests tied to state secrets.

Experts, including former regulators, noted this should alarm militaries globally about personnel monetizing secrets via decentralized or crypto-based markets. Prediction markets thrive on aggregating information for accurate probabilities, but insider advantages undermine trust and liquidity.

Allowing or failing to curb such activity could: Erode user confidence, as people avoid markets perceived as “rigged” by insiders.
Invite regulatory crackdowns, especially as platforms grow in political/geopolitical betting.
Platforms like Polymarket lack traditional KYC/surveillance tools that regulated ones use to detect patterns, freeze accounts, or refer cases to authorities.

Related scandals already prompted platforms to bolster integrity measures, but this case escalates concerns to national security levels. The charges (serious security offenses, bribery, obstruction of justice) treat this as akin to unauthorized disclosure of classified info for profit, not mere gambling.

It sets a precedent that profiting from state secrets via prediction markets can trigger severe prosecution, potentially deterring similar behavior elsewhere. In Israel, it reinforces that personal gain doesn’t excuse breaches of duty, even absent intent to harm security (a charge reportedly dropped in at least one case).

No direct wrongdoing by the platform; focus remains on users, but publicity could spur more scrutiny of on-chain wallets tied to accurate geopolitical bets. Could accelerate calls for better surveillance, or push regulators to classify certain markets as gambling and securities with insider-trading bans.

Public discourse on X highlights speculation linking the arrests to specific high-win accounts, amplifying debates on whether blockchain transparency helps catch insiders or exposes vulnerabilities.

While the incident involved relatively small sums ~$150k+, it exposes a dark intersection of classified intel, decentralized betting, and personal greed—potentially catalyzing tighter controls in both military and prediction-market worlds.

South Korea Launches Probe after Authorities Lose over 340 BTC

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

In January 2026, the Gwangju District Prosecutors’ Office launched an internal investigation and audit after discovering that 320 BTC valued at around $28-29 million USD at the time, or about 40-41 billion KRW had been lost/stolen from custody.

This occurred during an internal handover process in August 2025, with indications it may have involved a phishing attack or other compromise while managing seized criminal assets. Prosecutors stated they would pursue recovery and potential criminal liability if wrongdoing is found.

More recently, Seoul’s Gangnam Police Station confirmed the loss of 22 BTC worth approximately 2.1 billion KRW or ~$1.6 million USD from evidence storage. These coins were voluntarily submitted in a 2021 investigation later suspended, and the disappearance was uncovered during a nationwide audit and inspection of seized virtual asset handling procedures triggered by the earlier Gwangju case.

An internal probe is underway to determine how the unauthorized transfer occurred, including possible insider involvement. The physical cold wallet remains in possession, but the BTC was transferred out. Adding these up (320 BTC + 22 BTC = 342 BTC), this closely matches the “over 340 BTC” figure across multiple cases/institutions (prosecutors and police).

These incidents have prompted broader scrutiny of how South Korean authorities secure and manage confiscated cryptocurrencies from criminal investigations, amid concerns over storage practices, phishing risks, and potential internal lapses.

Note that this is separate from the high-profile February 2026 Bithumb exchange incident, where a staff error caused ~620,000 BTC worth ~$40-44 billion to be accidentally credited to users in a promotion gone wrong (a “fat-finger” input of BTC instead of KRW).

That led to its own regulatory probe by the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS), on-site inspections, and industry-wide reviews—but it involved an exchange, not government authorities losing seized assets. These government-related losses highlight ongoing challenges in handling digital assets as evidence in South Korea, even as the country advances crypto regulations and legalization efforts.

Authorities have emphasized thorough investigations and recovery attempts in statements. The combined value at the time of discovery was roughly $30-48 million USD depending on exact BTC price fluctuations around January-February 2026, with BTC hovering near $66,000-$70,000.

These were seized criminal assets intended for potential forfeiture to the national treasury or victim restitution after convictions. Their loss represents a direct hit to public funds and investigative outcomes. Recovery efforts are ongoing, but success is uncertain due to the nature of transfers post-phishing or unauthorized access.

In one instance, funds were traced but remained unmoved in a wallet, complicating legal claims. The Gwangju case (320 BTC) stemmed from a phishing attack during an internal handover or routine inspection in mid-2025, where staff likely accessed a fake site, leaking credentials or private keys from a hardware wallet/USB storage.

The Gangnam Police case (22 BTC) involved unauthorized transfers from a cold wallet (physical device intact but compromised digitally), uncovered only during a nationwide audit triggered by the prior incident. The 2021 case had been suspended, delaying detection.

These highlight systemic issues: reliance on basic hardware storage without advanced multi-signature, institutional-grade security, air-gapped procedures, or automated monitoring. Even state agencies fall to common threats like social engineering and credential compromise.

Incidents undermine confidence in law enforcement and prosecutors’ ability to securely manage seized digital assets, especially as crypto seizures increase following Supreme Court rulings. If authorities can’t safeguard confiscated crypto, questions arise about protecting citizens’ assets in regulated environments or during enforcement actions.

Broader scrutiny of evidence handling could complicate future criminal cases involving crypto, potentially affecting convictions or asset forfeiture. These events have prompted nationwide audits of seized virtual asset procedures by police and prosecutors, likely leading to mandated upgrades; better training, multi-factor protocols, third-party custody solutions, or institutional wallets.

They coincide with South Korea’s push toward fuller crypto legalization and integration, lifting bans on public company crypto investments, recognizing blockchain securities, and advancing spot ETFs/stablecoins. Ironically, while exchanges face probes; government mishandling adds pressure for uniform standards across public and private sectors.

Potential acceleration of the Digital Asset Basic Act or related laws, emphasizing IT security for state-held crypto, AML compliance, and institutional custody best practices. Reinforces the mantra “Not your keys, not your coins” — even for governments. Centralized custody introduces single points of failure.

Highlights phishing as a persistent threat, even against sophisticated entities, underscoring needs for education, hardware isolation, and behavioral safeguards. In a country with high crypto adoption, these lapses could fuel calls for self-custody advocacy or offshore shifts if domestic handling appears unreliable.

While not catastrophic in scale compared to private sector incidents, these cases serve as a wake-up call for institutional crypto management in South Korea. They expose gaps at a pivotal time when the nation is formalizing digital asset rules, likely driving reforms to prevent recurrence and restore credibility. Authorities have emphasized thorough probes, recovery attempts, and accountability.

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