Artificial intelligence could transform the global trading system, boosting the value of goods and services trade by nearly 40% by 2040, but without adequate safeguards, it also risks deepening inequality, the World Trade Organization (WTO) warned on Wednesday.

In its latest World Trade Report, the WTO projected that global trade could rise between 34% and 37% under various scenarios as AI reduces costs and enhances productivity. Global GDP, the report added, could expand by 12-13% in the same period, underlining AI’s disruptive potential for the world economy.

“AI could be a bright spot for trade in an increasingly complex trading environment,” said WTO Deputy Director General Johanna Hill, presenting the findings.

She acknowledged the turbulence facing the multilateral trading system, including this year’s wave of tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, but noted that AI was fundamentally reshaping how economies connect.

According to the report, businesses could achieve significant savings in logistics, regulatory compliance, and communications, while AI-driven translation tools would lower barriers for small producers and retailers seeking entry into international markets. The WTO estimated that such technologies could help raise export growth in low-income countries by as much as 11% — provided these nations invest in strengthening their digital infrastructure.

However, the organization cautioned that the gains from AI will not be automatic. Without targeted investments and inclusive policies, the report said, AI could exacerbate the divides between advanced and developing economies.

“The effects of the development and deployment of AI are raising concerns that many workers, and even entire economies, could be left behind,” the WTO warned.

Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, speaking at the launch event in Geneva, stressed the importance of proactive policymaking to mitigate the risks.

“AI could upend labor markets, transforming some jobs whilst displacing others. Managing these shifts demands investment in domestic policies to enhance education, skills, retraining and social safety nets,” she said.

To ensure the benefits of AI are distributed more equitably, the WTO recommended predictable trade policies under its rules framework, as well as lowering tariffs on raw materials critical to AI technologies, such as semiconductors.

Divergent Futures

The WTO report also opens the door to several possible futures for global trade as AI adoption accelerates.

In the first possible outcome, advanced economies integrate AI rapidly, streamlining supply chains and cutting costs while boosting exports. This could reinforce existing trade imbalances if developing nations cannot match the same pace, widening the gap between wealthy and poorer regions. Under this pathway, low-income countries risk losing competitiveness in sectors like textiles, agriculture, and light manufacturing, where AI-enabled logistics and compliance systems will favor countries with robust digital infrastructure.

In a more inclusive future, however, international cooperation and targeted investments help bridge the gap. If low-income nations succeed in building out digital infrastructure and skills training, AI-driven translation and communication tools could enable even micro and small businesses to plug into global supply chains. The WTO estimates that such a trajectory could lift exports in low-income economies by up to 11%, giving them a foothold in higher-value global markets.

There is also a risk scenario where fragmented AI policies and trade restrictions — such as tariffs on semiconductors or competing governance frameworks in the U.S., Europe, and China — slow the adoption of AI across borders. This would blunt the projected gains in global trade and GDP, while reinforcing geopolitical divides.

The findings place the WTO at the heart of an emerging debate on how artificial intelligence could reshape globalization itself. Proponents see the potential for AI to make cross-border commerce cheaper and faster, improving supply chain efficiency and enabling even small firms to compete globally. But labor groups and development economists warn that countries lacking strong digital infrastructure or retraining systems risk being left behind as AI accelerates change.

The WTO’s analysis makes clear that AI’s impact on trade and growth will be profound but uneven, leaving policy choices in the next decade as the deciding factor between shared prosperity and deepening global divides.

Waymo has deepened its push into the U.S. robo taxi market with a new partnership, this time teaming up with Lyft to launch in Nashville, Tennessee, next year.

The move marks the first commercial deal between the Alphabet-owned autonomous driving company and Lyft, signaling another major step in scaling driverless ride-hailing across the country.

The announcement sent Lyft shares surging 10% on Wednesday, as investors interpreted the deal as a strategic lifeline for the smaller ride-hailing player in its battle with Uber.

Under the agreement, Nashville riders will be able to hail a Waymo robotaxi through the dedicated Waymo One app, while Lyft will also integrate Waymo vehicles into its platform gradually. In exchange, Lyft will provide end-to-end fleet management services, covering vehicle readiness, maintenance, infrastructure, and depot operations in the city, according to a joint statement from both companies.

The collaboration extends Waymo’s already significant lead in the robotaxi sector. The company has established commercial operations in Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, and Atlanta, surpassing 10 million paid trips as of May. Its roadmap includes planned rollouts in Miami, Washington, D.C., Dallas, Denver, and now Nashville in 2025.

Lyft CEO David Risher framed the moment as “formative” for the autonomous mobility industry. Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street, Risher said: “What we see in markets where there are autonomous cars … we actually see those markets growing faster, faster than a lot of the other markets we operate in.”

The deal underscores how the rapid growth of the robotaxi market is stirring fierce competition in the United States. With the potential to reshape urban transport economics, ride-hailing giants are striking partnerships with autonomous vehicle makers in a bid to secure their share of the future.

Uber has been aggressive in positioning itself for the driverless era. Although it sold its self-driving unit in 2020, it has leaned on partnerships, teaming up with Aurora for long-haul trucking and working with Motional to test robotaxis in select markets. The company’s global scale gives it leverage, and with a market capitalization now above $200 billion—roughly 25 times larger than Lyft—it has the financial muscle to push its advantage.

Lyft, by contrast, has faced tighter margins and a smaller market presence, making the Waymo partnership a critical move. While it previously collaborated with Waymo in Phoenix in 2019 and recently launched a pilot with May Mobility in Atlanta, the Nashville rollout marks its most ambitious foray yet into commercial autonomy. Lyft is carving out a niche role in the ecosystem beyond simply matching riders and drivers by providing fleet management for Waymo vehicles.

Tesla, which has long promoted its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software as a stepping stone to autonomy, continues to run limited tests but has yet to field a true commercial robotaxi service. Analysts say its vertically integrated model—selling cars equipped with FSD directly to consumers—could allow it to bypass traditional ride-hailing if its technology proves reliable.

Amazon’s Zoox, meanwhile, is developing purpose-built autonomous vehicles designed specifically for shared rides, though its deployment remains in the testing phase. Smaller startups like Wayve, Nuro, and May Mobility are also competing, focusing on niche markets such as last-mile delivery or shuttle services.

Internationally, Waymo’s most formidable competitor is China’s Baidu, whose Apollo Go service has scaled rapidly. Baidu is also looking outward, announcing partnerships with Lyft to launch in Europe and with Uber to expand into Asia and the Middle East. This global chessboard highlights the urgency for U.S. players to expand quickly or risk losing ground to Chinese rivals.

For now, Waymo’s advantage lies in its proven scale and technology, but the race is far from settled. Each player is pursuing a different strategy: Uber with global reach and partnerships, Lyft with fleet operations and niche alliances, Tesla with a hardware-plus-software consumer model, and Zoox with specialized vehicles.

Analysts believe Nashville is not just another rollout city for Waymo and Lyft—it represents a testbed for how robotaxis will be integrated into mainstream ride-hailing at scale. As the competition intensifies, the winners will likely be those able to balance cutting-edge technology with sustainable business models and consumer trust.