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Crypto Crash: There is Light at the End of the Tunnel

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Bitcoin is soaring

It has been weeks of chaos and reverberating pains for investors and the cryptocurrency market. The much touted digital gold has been on a free fall since more than a week ago, triggered by the announcement of one its cheerleaders Elon Musk, to halt Tesla’s bitcoin transactions, and Chinese government’s decision to stop financial institutions in China from conducting cryptocurrency transactions.

These two decisions resulted in the crypto market’s crash that has seen the over $2 trillion valued market lose nearly half of its value.

But as the loss stirs emotions and concerns about the future of cryptocurrency, validating negative predictions by governments and many business leaders, Crypto experts believe it offers an ample opportunity of correction that will buoy further growth.

Meltem Demirors, chief strategy officer at CoinShares, a London-based company that offers digital asset investment strategies, told CNBC on Wednesday that the current correction in crypto is “healthy” and “normal” and that she remains a long-term crypto bull.

Bitcoin has plunged more than 40% in value, from its all-time peak of $64,829.14 in mid-April, going as low as $30,000, while Ethereum has dropped by a similar amount from its all-time high of $4,382.73 set earlier this month, to as low as less than $2,400.

Altcoins aren’t spared either, with each of them recording a full share of the plunge, the cryptocurrency market is having one of its worst moments in time.

There has been mass liquidation that got more than $8 billion wiped off in different future exchanges, and more than 800,000 individual accounts lost their complete funds.

Luke Lloyd, investment strategist at Strategic Wealth Partners, a self-described crypto bull, told Forbes that corrections like this play a large part in crypto markets because they are speculative assets based solely on supply and demand.

He added that once there are large gains on the table for a certain crypto, people “tend to take profits and cash out to go somewhere else — that’s what we are seeing with many cryptocurrencies right now that have had huge gains.”

But as panic strikes through the market, especially among the newbies, the coins are beginning to retrace their steps back to high. Musk said Tesla has no plan to sell its bitcoins, and he is not selling his Dogecoins either, fueling a rebound. Bitcoin is trading nearly $37,000 and Ether, less than $2,500 as of the time of writing.

Corporations are still buying bitcoins, augmenting investors’ push to buy the dip. More than one million addresses bought bitcoin between $32,300.26 and $43,781.97, according to On-Chain Data. That’s more than 68.5% of the total On-Chain volume on Thursday.

Data from ForexStock shows that 35 companies are still holding more than 200,000 bitcoins. Tesla holds more than 42,000 bitcoins, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust holds 653,274 bitcoins and 3,165,721 Ether. Microstrategy which holds about 111,000 bitcoins bought more during the market pullback.

The China ban was a major blow to bitcoin as it has been in the past. In 2017, China’s move to ban cryptocurrency resulted in about a 23% dip. But bitcoin bounced back quickly and recorded about 30% growth in the next one month. It means that China’s narrative has been part of bitcoin’s bull cycle story. Analysts believe it will not be different this time around.

Hitesh Malviya, founder of ItsBlockchain said there are going to be a lot of similarities between 2017 and now.

“On Daily Chart, we found a lot of similarities between the September 2017 drop, and yesterday’s pullback. Bitcoin is showing strong buying pressure on the lower time frame, if the current daily candle manages to close above $40,000 then I think bitcoin will quickly recover from the recent pullback, and BTC prices should retest to $48,000 area soon,” he said, adding that there is a decent chance for a possible V Shape recovery if it happens then we can find a bitcoin price above $100,000 in the next few months.

Another factor that is expected to fuel a bitcoin bounceback is Taproot, a soft fork that improves bitcoin’s scripts to increase privacy and improve upon other factors related to complex transactions. Taproot will bring major improvements to Bitcoin’s privacy. When combined with Schnorr signatures, it is also expected to boost efficiency when performing transactions.

While there have been many bitcoin corrections, Taproot is the most significant upgrade to its network since 2017. With its potential to improve bitcoin’s usability, Taproot is expected to widen bitcoin’s value and usability. The activation is expected to happen in November.

Another factor that may help to curtail bitcoin’s volatility is sustainable energy. Musk had cited it as a reason while his electric vehicle company would no longer use bitcoin. He said Thursday that top bitcoin miners should post audited data of the renewable energy they possibly use in order to ease concerns over the digital asset’s impact on the environment.

“I agree that this can be done over time, but recent extreme energy usage growth could not possibly have been done so fast with renewables. This question is easily resolved if the top 10 hashing orgs just post audited numbers of renewable energy vs not,” Musk said in a tweet responding to a tweet from Ark Invest’s director of research, Brett Winton, about bitcoin mining encouraging the adoption of renewables.

Ethereum says its blockchain – which powers the second most valuable cryptocurrency in the world, ETH, as well as much of the recent rise in NFTs – will be moving from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake, a less energy consuming and more environmental friendly mining system, “in the upcoming months”, according to a blog post from the foundation that runs it. The aim is to lower its mining energy and mitigate its impact on the environment. Many other cryptocurrencies are also working to switch to Proof-of-stake.

The move, if followed by other cryptocurrencies, will take the concentration of China, giving other countries a chance to increase their mining activities. Chinese mining pools control more than 60% of the Bitcoin network’s collective hashrate largely due to cheap electricity.

With proof-of-stake, many countries worried about the energy consumption of bitcoin mining and its environmental impact will likely tolerate mining activities, thereby minimizing the huge influence of China on the cryptocurrency market.

Although the growing influence of cryptocurrency is rattling many governments, pushing them to make abrupt rules hurting the market’s growth, the future doesn’t seem perpetually dark. Uptick in institutional investments, crypto bull ideas like NFT, adjustments and corrections in this dark period of the cryptocurrency market show that there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Nigeria Has Latent Opportunities in Technology And Building/Construction Materials

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The United States’ largest capitalized (public) companies are Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google* and Facebook. In Nigeria, you have Dangote Cement, followed by MTN Nigeria, Airtel, BUA Cement and Nestle Nigeria. Do you see something there? The US leaders are united by one gene – technology.  The Nigeria cohort does not have a clear pattern. 

Yet, if you remove MTN Nigeria, Airtel Africa and Nestle Nigeria (the trio have foreign linkages), one thing becomes evident: indigenously, cement seems to be it. Technically, in a developing economy, that is expected. But the problem is that no building parts supplier registers in the top 40 of the Nigerian Stock Exchange chart.

That is expected since, unlike cement, none of the core building and construction raw materials are produced or packaged in Nigeria at scale. Looking at this chart, a smart government can get insights for a policy.

Yes, cement cannot just power the two wholly indigenous companies when other building & construction materials firms do not make the top 40. Largely, people import those materials and buy cement locally. A policy designed for cement can work on steel, POP, ceiling sheets, etc to drive import substitution.  Yes, we can get Dangote Cement and Bua Cement for iron sheets, ceiling sheets, etc, since from the cements, it is evident that people are buying buying materials.

And the big message: the technology space in Nigeria remains at infancy. Huge opportunities would be captured ahead.

Tekedia Live on Satellite Broadband, SpaceX Starlink Opportunities [Video]

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Tekedia Institute has scheduled a Tekedia Live (a Zoom session) to discuss the emerging opportunities as the era of satellite broadband emerges. We are expecting this era to unleash the cambrian moment on digital entrepreneurial capitalism across Nigeria and broad Africa. CDMA telcos knocked out state telecom monopolies, and the CDMAs fell to GSM operators, the satellite era can provide a new basis of competition, changing the ordinance in the telecom market systems.

Yes, we do think that if SpaceX Starlink arrives in Nigeria and Africa, new opportunities will emerge. Also, there would be disruptions – and more. Join us as follows:

  • Topic: Satellite Broadband, SpaceX Starlink and Opportunities Ahead in Nigeria & Africa
  • Speakers: Prof Ndubuisi Ekekwe (Tekedia Institute), John Enoh (Beeptool Satellite, Texas), Joseph Ibeh (Northern Sky Research, Cambridge, USA)
  • Date: Saturday, May 22, 2021 at 7pm WAT
  • Zoom link – click here. Only the first 100 will be on Zoom; others watch on this link via YouTube Live https://www.tekedia.com/live/

Meanwhile, we invite you to register for Tekedia Mini-MBA (June – Sept 1, 20217) via any of the payment methods here – https://school.tekedia.com/course/mmba5/ . Our program is 100% online, self-paced and costs $140 or N50,000 with optional thrice weekly live sessions. We are adding new courses on AfCFTA, product development, global markets, China, Forex, etc. Join us.

Tekedia Institute offers an innovation management 12-week program, optimized for business execution and growth, with digital operational overlay. It runs 100% online. The theme is Innovation, Growth & Digital Execution – Techniques for Building Category-King Companies. All contents are self-paced, recorded and archived which means participants do not have to be at any scheduled time to consume contents.

It is a sector- and firm-agnostic management program comprising videos, flash cases, challenge assignments, labs, written materials, webinars, etc by a global faculty coordinated by Prof Ndubuisi Ekekwe.

U.S. Responds To China’s E-Yuan; E-Dollar On The Way, And BIG Risks to Bitcoin

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In April 2021, Tekedia wrote: “The United States government has been rattled by China’s push to develop a digital alternative to its currency yuan. Bloomberg reported that the Biden administration is stepping up scrutiny of China’s plans for a digital yuan, with some officials concerned the move could kick off a long-term bid to topple the dollar as the world’s dominant reserve currency, according to people familiar with the matter.” The step went further this week when China began to wean its personal, corporate and sovereign ecosystems of anything cryptocurrency, preparing the grounds for the ascension of e-yuan, a digital currency equivalent of Chinese currency.

But America is not going to just watch. Yes, the Biden Administration is opening the playbook. Interestingly, the Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, who did not say many nice things about crypto is the one to lead the charge: “Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell says the central bank will release research this summer that explores developing a digital currency of its own. The discussion paper would break down the Fed’s “current thinking on digital payments, with a particular focus on the benefits and risks associated,” then seek public comment”.

 Powell said the digital currency, which won’t be a cryptocurrency, would need to be efficient, safe to use and offer “broad benefits to American households and businesses.” Fed officials say they’re focused on getting it right, though China’s creation of a digital yuan has raised the stakes.

This is my call: I warned that if e-yuan continues to advance, cryptocurrency will continue to struggle because without China, the cryptocurrency world will lose a big part of itself. If the US decides a future will include digital US dollars, Bitcoin and cousins will have major competitors, and I expect the US dollars to win in America just as E-Yuan will win in China. The same will happen when digital Euro will emerge. 

So, to a large extent, as nations begin to move into cryptocurrency 2.0, the current generation of cryptos will struggle. That remains the biggest risk on cryptos as someone can make something which is better than what is currently available. And with that, adoption moves!

Finally, Bitcoin and its cousins have been heralded as being decentralized. Nothing like that. They are decentralized on technology stack but centralized on exchanges. Provided exchanges are regulated by nations since they are registered to operate with licenses, all Bitcoin accounts are under the control of governments (think Nigeria, China bans). The FBI has been seizing wallets through exchanges, and suddenly the decentralized myth looks like snake oil!

How To Win in Nigeria, Africa And 4 Features of Category-King Companies

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To win big in Nigeria, you must be among the  category-kings. Why? ICT is rapidly moving Nigeria towards knowledge-based economic structures and information societies, comprising networks of individuals, firms and states that are linked electronically and in interdependent relationships. This linkage has enabled new classes of companies to emerge, with better marginal costs, as they utilize factors of production more efficiently.

The acceleration of returns and the virtuoso circle of network effects are working across sectors. MTN is becoming more dominant. The FUGAZ banks have built moats for the second tier banks which remain frozen with limited mobility. Yes, even in cement, it is the same thing.

The most magical thing digital technology does is the removal of information asymmetry and that brings demand and supply into a more optimal equilibrium point. Within that state, markets become more efficient. Unfortunately, most times, the category-kings capture more value because everyone knows that they are better!

Depending on what you do, this could be a time to explore partnerships, join ventures and mergers. You must win on unit economics to thrive in Nigeria as natural moats, via scale, are becoming more dominant.

To become an enduring category-king in your business sector, you must possess these four characteristics. With these four features, the firms build moats to protect their castles.

  • Perceptively innovative: you are always innovating. You never rest, always pushing for better products, services and experiences. You outperform competitors with new solutions for unmet needs.
  • Evidently inspired: you inspire your users. You are modern, trustworthy and inspirational, you have a larger purpose, helping people live out their own values and beliefs.
  • Ruthlessly pragmatic: your customers depend on you and you have their backs, making life easier by delivering consistent experiences. You make good on your promises.
  • Customer obsessed: customers cannot imagine living without you. You know what matters to customers, finding new ways to meet their most important. needs.

Four Characteristics of Enduring Category-King Companies