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Iran’s Parliament Speaker Publicly Advised Traders How to Respond to Trump’s Market-moving Posts

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Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf publicly advised traders on how to respond to President Donald Trump’s market-moving social media posts.

Robert Armstrong describe a perceived pattern in Donald Trump’s policy style, especially during tariff negotiations. Trump makes bold threats, markets sell off in panic, then he delays, pauses, or walks back the threats, allowing stocks to rebound.

However traders dubbed the strategy as TACO trade: buy the dip on the sell-off, expecting the reversal and recovery. This pattern reportedly worked repeatedly in 2025 with tariffs and some foreign policy signals, creating a repeatable cycle that some investors bet on.

In the current Iran context involving threats over the Strait of Hormuz, energy infrastructure, and oil flows, Donald Trump has used similar rhetoric—escalating then extending deadlines or citing productive talks—which initially sparked short-lived rallies; one reported $1.7 trillion equity pop before partial reversal.

Iran has denied direct negotiations, calling some announcements fake news or psychological warfare. Ghalibaf posted on X essentially calling Donald Trump’s pre-market “Truth” or announcements a reverse indicator for energy markets.

His advice boiled down to: Treat them as setups for profit-taking by the other side—do the opposite of the initial move (fade the pump or the dump). He framed it as manipulation via timed social media posts affecting oil and broader markets.

This came amid: President Donald Trump’s announcements and delays on potential strikes against Iranian energy assets. Volatility in oil prices and equities tied to fears over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil.

Suspicions including large pre-announcement futures trades of front-running or market timing around Trump’s posts. Some analysts noted the classic TACO dynamic appeared to be faltering here because real military conflict introduces fog of war risks that markets can’t simply TACO out of unilaterally.

Escalation could persist if Iran doesn’t play along, potentially sustaining higher oil prices or broader economic pressure. Threats around Iranian infrastructure or the Strait have driven wild swings in crude prices. Ghalibaf’s post targeted energy moves specifically.

Equities and bonds: Short-term rallies on de-escalation signals have faded at times; some economists like Steve Hanke pointed to bond vigilantes reacting to combined tariff + conflict pressures. Wall Street has grown accustomed to the TACO playbook from the tariff era, but geopolitical and military standoffs differ from trade talks.

Critics argue it assumes Trump controls the tempo and the other party will de-escalate—risky when it takes two to TACO. Ghalibaf’s intervention is notable as unusual public trading advice from a senior Iranian official amid active tensions—more political messaging than neutral analysis, aimed at undermining perceptions of U.S. credibility or highlighting alleged market manipulation.

In short, the headline captures the intersection of high-stakes geopolitics, social media-driven market volatility, and traders hunting for edges in an unpredictable environment. The TACO thesis has been profitable in some past episodes but faces real limits when military outcomes aren’t easily reversed by a tweet.

Markets remain sensitive to any new signals from either side on talks, deadlines, or Hormuz access.

Euro Zone Inflation Spikes to 2.5% in March as Iran War Energy Shock Derails Disinflation

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Euro zone inflation surged to 2.5% in March, the highest reading in more than a year, as the energy fallout from the month-old U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran abruptly reversed two years of steady disinflation and pushed the headline rate well clear of the European Central Bank’s 2% target.

Preliminary figures from Eurostat on Tuesday showed the jump from 1.9% in February, driven almost entirely by energy prices that flipped from a deflationary drag of minus 3.1% to a 4.9% annual increase. Services inflation eased slightly to 3.2% from 3.4%, while food, alcohol, and tobacco slipped to 2.4% from 2.5%. The core rate, excluding volatile food and energy, held at 2.3%, suggesting the immediate pressure remains concentrated in the energy component — for now.

Iran’s near-total shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz since late February has sent global oil and gas prices soaring. The narrow waterway carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s seaborne crude and LNG. Europe, still rebuilding its energy architecture after severing most Russian pipeline supplies, is feeling the pinch more acutely than most.

U.S. liquefied natural gas, already Europe’s dominant supplier at nearly 58% of imports last year, has seen volumes triple since 2021, yet the continent is now locked in fierce bidding wars for every available cargo.

The war has hit at a particularly vulnerable moment. Economic sentiment, consumer confidence, hiring intentions, and private-sector output have all deteriorated sharply since the strikes began. Many European capitals quietly regard the conflict as an American-led war of choice rather than a collective necessity, adding a layer of political resentment to the economic strain.

ECB President Christine Lagarde made clear last week that policymakers are watching the regional data closely and will not hesitate to raise interest rates if the energy-driven surge threatens to become entrenched, even if it proves short-lived.

The bank has already torn up its earlier forecasts. It now sees headline inflation averaging 2.6% for 2026, a full 0.7 percentage point higher than December’s projection, while growth is expected to limp along at just 0.9%. The March print carries echoes of the 2022 energy crisis, when Russian supply cuts drove inflation into double digits and forced the ECB into its most aggressive tightening cycle in decades. This time, the shock is narrower but arrives when the euro zone has far less fiscal and monetary room to maneuver.

Gas storage levels are lower than in recent winters, leaving less cushion against prolonged high prices. Analysts at HSBC warn European gas could run 40% above earlier expectations through 2026 and stay elevated into 2027.

Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at Scope Markets, called the data a stark warning for other Western economies.

“The rapid rise in euro zone inflation points towards a second wave of price pressures that are only just beginning to take hold,” he said. “Energy has switched roles from being a key driver of disinflation to the key driver of above-target inflation. For central bankers, the task ahead is to figure out whether this is something they can look beyond or a driver of higher rates to come.”

The situation has introduced an acute dilemma for the ECB. Lagarde and her colleagues have repeatedly stressed a data-dependent approach, but the bank now faces the classic stagflationary bind: rising prices alongside weakening growth and fragile confidence. A rate hike could anchor inflation expectations, but risks tipping the economy into a deeper slowdown. Doing nothing invites second-round effects — wage demands, higher transport and production costs feeding into services and goods.

Country-level details will arrive with the full release later this month, but flash estimates already show the energy hit is uneven. Germany, still heavily reliant on imported gas, is likely to see sharper pressure than France, which benefits from its large nuclear fleet. Southern and eastern members, more exposed to imported LNG and heating oil, could face the steepest household bill increases.

For households and businesses across the bloc, the numbers translate into higher fuel, heating, and freight costs at a moment when many were only beginning to recover from the post-pandemic squeeze. The broader risk is that sustained energy inflation begins to erode the real incomes that have finally started to stabilize after years of erosion.

Tuesday’s data delivers a blunt message to Frankfurt and to capitals from Lisbon to Tallinn: the disinflation journey that looked well on track has hit an abrupt and expensive detour. How long that detour lasts will depend less on monetary policy than on whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens and whether the Iran conflict finds any off-ramp.

President Donald Trump said Tuesday that U.S. allies impacted by the U.S.-Israel vs Iran war are on their own.

“All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT,” he wrote on Truth Social.

What Is a Barbell Strategy for Angel Investors?

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More than 360,000 angel investors operate in the US alone, and they’re looking for fresh opportunities every day across the startup ecosystem. While the allure of the next unicorn drives the initial check, the reality of venture capital is a game of extreme attrition where most seed-stage bets eventually go to zero.

Experienced investors in 2026 are increasingly moving away from the “middle of the road” diversified portfolio. Instead, they are adopting a barbell strategy to protect their wealth while maintaining the upside that only early-stage equity can provide.

The Mechanics of the Barbell Approach

The barbell strategy is an investment philosophy that avoids the “moderate” risk category entirely. Instead of a balanced portfolio filled with blue-chip stocks or mid-cap funds that might grow at a steady but slow pace, the barbell focuses on two polar opposites.

On the one hand, you place extremely high-risk, high-reward assets such as angel investments or pre-seed tech startups, such as those driven by AI. On the opposite end, you anchor the portfolio with ultra-safe, liquid assets that preserve capital regardless of market volatility.

This method allows an investor to be aggressive where it counts. By securing the majority of your net worth in defensive “sleeves,” you gain the psychological and financial freedom to let your startups fail without ruining your lifestyle.

In a higher-for-longer interest rate environment, the cost of capital remains a persistent weight on mid-tier companies. This makes the barbell more attractive because it ignores the vulnerable middle where companies are too large to be nimble but too small to be “too big to fail.”

Building the Safe Sleeve with Bullion and Cash

The foundation of a successful barbell is the defensive side, and most modern practitioners suggest that 80% to 90% of the total portfolio should reside here. This sleeve is not designed to beat the market; it is designed to survive it. Common components include T-bills, high-yield cash-like funds, and physical commodities that carry no counterparty risk.

As market uncertainty persists into the mid-2020s, many sophisticated angels are looking at U.S. silver bullion options to serve as a liquid, physical hedge. Because silver maintains massive industrial utility in the AI and green energy sectors, it offers a floor that speculative software companies simply cannot provide. This physical anchor ensures that even if a venture capital winter freezes the tech market, the investor still holds tangible value.

Modern defensive sleeves generally focus on three core pillars:

  • Short-term government debt provides consistent yield with zero default risk
  • Physical precious metals offer a hedge against currency debasement and systemic banking failures
  • Liquid cash reserves allow for immediate deployment when a distressed startup opportunity arises

By keeping these safe assets entirely separate from the venture capital pool, you ensure that a “down round” at a portfolio company doesn’t result in a personal liquidity crisis.

Why the Balanced Portfolio Fails Angels

The traditional 60/40 balanced portfolio is often the enemy of the angel investor. When you invest in a balanced fund, you are exposed to market-wide correlations. If the S&P 500 drops, your “balanced” assets likely drop with it, and for an angel investor, this is a double-sided trap because startup exits (M&A and IPOs) also dry up during market downturns.

Traditional balanced portfolios failed to protect capital during the last major inflationary spike. The barbell solves this by ensuring the “safe” end of the bar is genuinely non-correlated. While your startup equity might be illiquid for a decade, your T-bills and silver eagles can be liquidated in a matter of days if cash is needed.

Concentrating risk at the extremes forces a level of discipline that moderate investing lacks. It requires you to be very picky about the startups you back because you aren’t spreading “filler” across the middle. You only want the bets that have the potential to return 50x or 100x your capital, so if a deal doesn’t have that “moonshot” potential, it doesn’t belong on the high-risk end of your barbell.

Rebalancing Rules for 2026

A barbell is not a “set it and forget it” structure. It requires active rebalancing to maintain the weight between the two ends. When a startup has a massive exit, the influx of capital will naturally tilt the barbell heavily toward the high-risk side. The temptation is to reinvest all that “found money” back into more startups, but the barbell rule dictates that the majority of those gains must be moved back to the safe sleeve.

This discipline prevents the “gambler’s ruin” scenario where an investor has one big win followed by five big losses that wipe out the original gains. By consistently harvesting wins and moving them into T-bills or bullion, you lock in a higher floor for your personal wealth.

Julius Baer notes that the 2026 investment landscape favors those who can pivot between short-term liquidity and long-term growth. The barbell is the ultimate pivoting tool. It allows you to participate in the “next big thing” without the fear that a tech bubble burst will leave you with nothing.

Managing High-Interest Volatility

The current economic climate of “higher-for-longer” interest rates has changed the math for angel investing. In 2021, when money was cheap, almost any startup could find a bridge loan to survive. In 2026, debt is expensive, which makes the high-risk side of the barbell even riskier, as startups have a much shorter runway and less access to emergency credit.

This reality makes the “safe sleeve” more important than ever. When the defensive side of your portfolio is generating 5% or 6% in risk-free yield, it creates a “hurdle rate” for your angel deals.

If a startup doesn’t have the potential to vastly outperform the yield you’re getting from simple T-bills, the risk simply isn’t worth it. The barbell strategy provides a clear framework for saying “no” to mediocre deals.

By adopting this structure, you transform from a speculator into a strategic capital allocator. You are no longer just hoping for a lucky break in the tech market. Instead, you are building a fortress of wealth capable of weathering any economic storm while still keeping the door open to generational wealth creation through venture capital.

For more insights on startups, investment opportunities, and all manner of cutting-edge topics, stick around on our site and  read our other posts.

5 Safe Ways to Diversify Your Portfolio

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Everywhere you look online, you’ll find someone writing a guide designed to tell you that a specific market or asset class is the best way to diversify, so we’re going to do something different. Rather than trying to sell you on one particular option, we’re going to focus on safe, actionable steps that you can take for every potential investment opportunity. 

By covering the fundamentals in this way, we’ll be equipping you with a framework that you can then use to assess the wealth of opportunities that are out there. Some will be of interest, some will raise red flags, and some you may be unsure of, but we will help you safely navigate the process. 

Invest in tangible assets with proof of ownership  

Moving away from stocks, shares, and bonds can mean opening the door to a world of tangible assets such as collectibles, precious metals, and raw materials. The key point here is that you need proof that you own the asset and written confirmation that you are actually investing in what is being advertised. Cask whisky is a good example of a tangible asset that has a mature market, and in this case, you would need a Delivery Order as proof of ownership. Having this vital piece of documentation will give you a much higher level of protection than not having it.  

Never invest in an asset without the input of an expert 

“Cask whisky is an exciting and unique asset, but as with everything, it’s important to go with your eyes fully open,” says Alphie Valentine, Co-founder of Hackstons, established whisky specialists who provide opportunities for both investment and consumption. The point here is that the right expert will be able to guide you through common practices, advise on past performance, and provide information on the latest investment opportunities. It may seem like you can do it all yourself online, but experts can talk you through the fine details you will never find online. 

Invest in something you love, but always maintain perspective  

Investing in an area that you are keen to learn more about and have a passion for is an underrated way to keep yourself safe. You will have to invest in a pragmatic way so that you’re not led by your emotions and enthusiasm, but having an interest in the underlying asset will inspire you to want to learn everything there is to know about it. While there is no such thing as a guaranteed return in any market, the more you know about the asset, the more capable you will be of making an informed decision. 

Perform a simple sanity check before making an investment 

Sanity checks sound like nothing more than common sense, but we want to highlight the need for them as they’re so easy to overlook. Before you take up a new position, think about how you heard about the opportunity, who told you about it, and whether or not it sounds too good to be true. Are you being sold something, or are you doing your own research and forming an opinion that you feel you can justify? By stepping back and looking at the whole picture, you will be able to protect yourself from scams and confidence tricks that are designed to get you swept up in the moment by offering something that sounds too good to ignore. 

Only work with experts who are fully open and transparent  

We’ve covered the importance of expertise, but we need to highlight the importance of how the expertise is delivered. For example, Hackstons recently won Newcomer of the Year and has a physical location you can go to when you want to talk to experts and start to learn about the industry. You can start putting faces to names, look at some of the products, and feel more comfortable with the people you are dealing with. By contrast, if all you have is an email address or a phone number, do you really feel as confident? Find someone who knows the industry and who will simplify it for you, and you will be able to better assess the nature of the opportunity. 

Final thoughts 

Now that we’ve guided you through the fundamentals, you’re ready to go out there and consider your options. Take your time, revisit this guide as often as you need to, and make sure that you never feel like you have to rush for fear of missing out. By moving at your own pace and performing all of the necessary due diligence, you’ll be able to make smart, informed decisions that are in your best interests. 

Eric Balchunas Compares Bitcoin’s Current Adoption Stage with Facebook Growth History 

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Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas recently drew a parallel between Bitcoin’s current adoption stage and a key growth phase in Facebook’s history.

In a post on X formerly Twitter, Balchunas noted: Bitcoin right now feels like when your parents joined Facebook. On one hand, it’s not as ‘cool’ anymore because of the Boomers, but on the other hand, Facebook’s user base grew from like 1 billion to 3 billion people since the coolness factor went away. This comparison has been widely reported in crypto media over the past couple of days.

Balchunas points to the spot Bitcoin ETFs approved in early 2024 as the catalyst making Bitcoin more accessible to mainstream and older investors. This institutional and retail broadening via regulated products like BlackRock’s IBIT which reportedly attracted around 1 million buyers in its first year signals maturation.

While it may reduce the edgy, countercultural appeal that attracted early crypto enthusiasts, it could drive much larger overall adoption—similar to how Facebook expanded dramatically after losing some of its youthful exclusivity. Facebook did indeed see massive growth: It hit roughly 1 billion monthly active users around 2012 and continued expanding to over 3 billion in later years as it became a utility for broader demographics, families, and older users.

The uncool shift didn’t halt growth; it coincided with mainstream normalization. Facebook’s growth was largely organic and network-driven. Bitcoin’s recent inflows are heavily institutional and capital-driven through ETFs, where authorized participants buy BTC to back shares.

On-chain metrics like unique active addresses haven’t shown the same explosive organic user surge as social media in its prime. Facebook’s user base grew rapidly in multiple phases from millions to hundreds of millions pre-1B, then further. Balchunas is specifically highlighting the post-1B mainstream/parents joining era as a bullish parallel for Bitcoin now.

Many early Bitcoin advocates value its decentralized, anti-establishment roots. Greater institutional involvement; ETFs, corporate treasuries, potential regulatory clarity can bring legitimacy and liquidity but also introduces more traditional finance dynamics, centralization risks, and potential for correlated market behavior. Bitcoin has followed S-curve adoption patterns seen in technologies like the internet.

Early phases were dominated by cypherpunks, tech enthusiasts, and high-risk retail; recent ETF-driven inflows and growing corporate interest mark a shift toward broader participation. Metrics like ETF flows, wallet growth among certain cohorts, and hash rate and security continue to show underlying strength, though price remains volatile and influenced by macro factors (interest rates, risk sentiment, geopolitics).

This Boomer phase idea is optimistic framing from a prominent ETF watcher, but it’s not a guarantee of tripled users or market cap and price. Adoption doesn’t always translate linearly to price, especially with Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply—value accrual depends on demand relative to scarcity, not just headcount. In short, Balchunas sees the loss of exclusivity as a feature, not a bug, for long-term scale.

It’s a thoughtful analogy that resonates with how many technologies go from niche to ubiquitous, but as with all such comparisons, the differences in tech, economics, and incentives matter. Bitcoin’s path will depend on continued utility as digital gold and store of value, real-world use cases, and global macro conditions rather than pure social virality.