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Finance Minister Confesses; Nigeria “Will Go into Recession”

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Finance Minister, Nigeria

In a defying acknowledgement on Thursday, the Finance Minister, Mrs. Zainab Ahmed told journalists that Nigeria’s economy will definitely fall into recession. She made the statement based on Nigeria’s Bureau of Statistics (NBS)’ assessment that the economy will go into recession at an average of -4.4 percent.

Mrs. Ahmed who addressed the press after the National Executive Council (NEC) meeting said there is hope though that the impact could be reduced through stimulus packages.

“The National Bureau of Statistics has made an assessment. So, it is the NBS assessment that Nigeria will go into recession measuring at an average of -4.4%. But with the work that the Economic Accessibility Committee is doing bringing stimulus packages, we believe that we can reduce the impact of that recession.

“And if we applied all that have been proposed and we are able to implement it, we may end up with a recession that is -0.4 percent. In any case, we will go into recession, but what we are trying to do is to make sure that it is shallow so that we will quickly come out of it come 2021,” she said.

In late 2019, the Nigerian government was struggling to maintain stable growth after it recovered from a severe recession that threatened its budget funding and sent the country on a borrowing spree. As Nigeria set on the path of recovery early this year, the COVID-19 pandemic came with a sweeping force that collapsed the gains derived from the little surge in crude oil price.

The oil based GDP plummeted following the global crash of crude oil as the coronavirus crisis shut commercial activities around the world.

Nigeria depends on crude oil for 90 percent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The remaining 10 percent comes from businesses that were shut down in a bid to contain the spread of coronavirus pandemic. So, it’s been an economy on standstill, whilst there’s a lot of financial responsibility to shoulder.

As other nations around the world inject billions of dollars in stimulus packages into their economies to save it from recession or total crumble, Nigeria was hoping to borrow. The Excess Crude Account (ECA) has been depleted before the global health crisis, leaving Nigeria broke with borrowing as the only choice to upset the deficiencies emanating from the health crisis.

Though the Central Bank has rolled out a couple of stimulus packages like the Credit Targeted Facility, it is not enough to alleviate the impact of the scourge on businesses. Many businesses like (aviation) are still on lockdown and interstate activities remain restricted, aggravating the country’s economic turmoil.

With the only hope of sustainability lying in the ability of other countries around the world opening their economies to spur demand for oil, Nigeria appears to be standing on a cliff.

To make things worse, the number of coronavirus cases is increasing in Nigeria and the rest of the world, creating economic and health battles the country is not fit to wage. The partial reopening of the economy is deemed premature by health professionals, but the government seemed to have been forced to choose it as a lesser evil.

“This is a very difficult time because the challenges we have now are double. There is health challenge, there is an economic challenge,” said Mrs. Ahmed. “Even as are addressing the current health challenge, we still have to look at how we can support the economy so that the economy does not fall into a depression.”

Government’s continuous promises to support the economy would have offered hope of sustainability if not that there is no fund to implement efficient stimulus packages.

Former vice president Atiku Abubakar, alongside others has advocated cutting the cost of governance as one of the ways Nigeria can get out of her COVID-19 ordeal. He advised that the presidential fleet should be sold while others have urged the lawmakers to slash their bonuses which are regarded as the most expensive in the world. But the federal appears unwilling to tread that path.

The borrowed $3.4 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is apparently insignificant to the size of the economic and health challenge facing Nigeria right now. The federal government is counting on COVID-19 donations and special funds to implement the amended budget, and provide the needed stimulus packages to boost the economy. With the rebound of the oil market uncertain, Nigeria will not only go into recession, it may go into depression.

How to Find and Buy the Correct Battery for Your Laptop

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Laptops are very advanced nowadays. They are a lot more powerful than smartphones, tablets and desktop computers. There are many advantages of having and using a laptop and today almost anyone has one. Laptops are portable machines so you can use them everywhere you go. But because they are portable, they require a good battery to enable them to operate longer. Batteries are vulnerable and drain fast. They have their expiration dates and working hours, so as soon as they hit them it is time for you to search for a new battery. If you start to notice that your laptop is not operating at its best and the performance is significantly reduced, you should consider getting a new battery. Remember that not all replacement batteries are good for your laptop. Inserting a wrong battery can do more harm than help to your computer. 

Choosing a Proper Replacement Battery

  • The first thing you should do is to find the exact model and brand of your laptop. When you know the exact model and brand, start searching for the proper battery. Only look for those batteries that are made for the brand you are using. You can easily find the model name of your laptop at the back of it or inside the compartment where the battery is stored. Unplug and shut down the computer first and then look for the model number of your laptop computer. 
  • Online you can find many great things regarding technology. For example, at https://www.soluno.com/ you can find some pretty useful information regarding phone systems. Online you can also search for the exact battery model number of your computer. In case you cannot see it or find it on your laptop, just go on the Internet and find the information about that. All you have to do is just enter the brand name of your computer and the name of the model, and you will be presented with results regarding suitable batteries. This is the best and fastest way of finding the required information. 
  • Check other important information and verify certain things before purchasing the replacement battery. Take a closer look at the information and photos of batteries that are sold online. Compare if they are completely identical to the original battery in your laptop. If you notice something is off then you should probably avoid buying it online as it might not be good for your laptop.

These were some pointers for you to pay attention to when you are searching for the correct battery for your laptop computer. This advice should help you find the correct battery in the fastest time possible. It is advisable to buy batteries from reputable sellers and not from random sellers online. It does not matter if you buy it online or in a physical store as long as the seller is a reputable seller of laptop batteries. Hopefully, you will find the information useful and soon get a suitable battery for your laptop

Learn to INNOVATE with me

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Learn to INNOVATE with me – and please bring your village along. It is an excursion into the mechanics of market systems. It would be career-shaping. Same level as in my 3rd year in secondary school, when I raised my hand and told my teacher, “I enjoyed this integrated science class on electricity. I will go into science in SSI and later study electrical engineering in the university”. You will remember great moments because you came along. COME here.

The New Challenge in Nigeria’s Electricity Distribution

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The controversy surrounding the Nigerian power sector continues to take turns. On Tuesday, the Senate asked the Federal Government to review the privatization policy of the power sector. The upper house of the national assembly said the current arrangement of the power sector needs to be redesigned as it lacks efficiency and the structure that would provide constant power supply to Nigeria.

The senate president said that if things continue the way they are, Nigerians will not be able to enjoy stable power supply in 10 years.

The motion which was moved by Senator Gabriel Suswam was largely backed by members of the red chamber. The power sector recovery plan has been a subject of discussion in the national assembly that its end seems far from near.

Lawan said the Discos have shown incapability to supply Nigerians with constant electricity, and therefore should not be allowed to continue to run the electricity business in their current capacity.

“We gave power to them, (GenCos and DisCos) and they still come to the public to ask for funds. I think it’s time for Nigeria to consider reversing the privatization of the power sector or they should just cancel the entire privatization process completely. If we leave it, we may not have power in another 10 years.

“The privatization of the power sector has so far, not been successful. We expected efficiency and effectiveness in the power supply. The DisCos have no capacity to supply us power. The GenCos have challenges too. It is not a good commentary that we should continue to give them money. They’re private businesses. We need to review this privatization.

“Our committee needs to investigate trillions spent. That’s a lot of money. Try to find out what has happened so far. Government needs to look at this whole thing. There is lack of capital, lack of investment. We feel very bad because we have no electricity and the country is suffering,” Lawan said.

This is the second time in the year that the senate is calling for review of the privatization policy of DisCos. In February, the senate president said the underperformance of the power sector can no longer be tolerated as it keeps deteriorating on the daily. He said the distribution policy of the power sector should be reviewed if not the entire sector.

The major reason for this call by the senate was found in the statement of the power Minister, Sale Mamman, in February. He said that the distribution companies can only transmit a fraction of generated power, which leaves many of the end-users in darkness.

Mamman said that out of the 13,000 megawatts capacity of power, the DisCos can only distribute about 4,500, and only 3,000 megawatts get to consumers. In view of the situation, he backed the call to review the entire process that brought in the present companies. “Companies that are incapable of running the distributors should give way to whoever that is ready to come and invest he said,” he said.

But in reaction, the Nigeria Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) warned the lawmakers against revisiting the privatization policy. The acting Chairman, Dr. Anthony Akah, said the Nigerian government may not have the funds to buy back the utilities and may be acting in contravention of the agreement binding the owners of the distribution companies and the federal government, and it will send a bad signal to investors.

Akah, however, acknowledged that the DisCos have fallen short of the electricity transmission level they signed to deliver. He said they are working to up their game.

“The Commission has identified that the remittance by the electricity distribution companies’ level is too and it is totally unacceptable to us. The Commission would soon introduce regulatory mechanism to redress this remittance abnormality,” he said.

It’s been three months now and the story remains the same. Nigeria has invested over N1 trillion in the power sector with little to show for it. Electricity distribution can only reach about 60% of Nigerian households, and it is not constant.

Before now, the problem had largely centered on power generation. But as power generation increases, it shifts to distribution. The inability of the distribution companies to transmit electricity according to the generation capacity of the GenCos has introduced a new challenge to the power sector.

On Tuesday, the Minister of Power announced that the director of Transition Company of Nigeria (TCN), Usman Mohammed has been sacked. The development followed a series of controversies that have trailed the Company, undermining the power sector reform goals.

Unfortunately, the story sounds the same from the past despite huge resources that have been channeled to the power sector, and there appears to be a little hope for stable power supply for now.

How Design Can Create A Better Nigeria

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I usually don’t like to comment or talk about political issues, neither do I like to give strategies based on hindsight, because let’s face it, hindsight is nowhere near as valuable as foresight, but the recent coronavirus pandemic, and the manner in which it was handled in Nigeria has birthed a simple conclusion; Nigeria needs Design.

The beauty of Design is less in the product (even though they are beautiful), but in the process itself. Design is a holistic approach to problem solving that involves empathy (understanding the users, stakeholders, and all those who will in one way or the other interact with the solutions you create), problem definition (Finding out what the problem really is), ideation (Engaging a multidisciplinary team, or in this case giving all relevant stakeholders a seat on the table), prototyping (creating a low cost and easy to create version of your solution), testing (Running time bound trials with the prototype created), and finally iteration (learning from the results obtained from those trials, finding areas that don’t properly align with the users or stakeholders, fixing them, and reiterating them to birth better solutions to problems).

The idea behind democracy is simple; we can’t have 200 million people sitting in a chamber in Abuja and giving their opinions on national matters and issues that concern them, so we gather those 200 million people, and instead of stuffing them into an overcrowded chamber, we give them voting cards and tell them to choose 469 people from their various constituencies that they believe can adequately represent them. We give those representatives 4 years to prove their worth, if they don’t deliver, we kick them out and put someone else, if they do deliver, we give them another 4 years, and it goes on and on like that.

The real idea behind democracy is simply this; everyone should have a say on issues that concern them.

The Coronavirus pandemic outbreak in Nigeria was not handled in a ‘Democratic’ manner.

The purpose of this article is not to castigate or praise any political party, allegiance or ideology, but to outline what the ‘Present’ Government can do to mitigate the economic damage that has been meted out to a good number of Nigerians because of a copy and paste approach to handling the coronavirus pandemic called ‘Lockdown’.

How Design can Save the Day.

So let’s rewind the clock and paint a picture of what a design driven approach to the coronavirus pandemic would have looked like.

Empathy

The Government gathers their top advisers to a strategy meeting. The premise is simple; there is a seemingly incurable virus on the horizon that has killed thousands of people globally, and we have recorded our first case. Someone lays down all the hard data; the death rate is around 2%, meaning this disease is not a fatal disease. It can be transferred through fluids from coughs and sneezes, but it isn’t Airborne. 2–14 days incubation period, some people could however appear to be asymptotic (showing no symptoms). Who are the most vulnerable? The elderly.

What are the options on the table? What have other nations facing this pandemic done? Some have introduced a concept called “A Lockdown.” where all economic activities in the country, or affected States are ground to a halt, or partial halt, to avoid movement and spreading the virus. How do those nations support their citizens? They are able to afford to feed people daily, and provide the basic amenities required to keep people alive and living well. Can we execute that? With the facts on ground, No sir. Why? Sir we lack the data to be able to properly distribute food items to people consistently and avoid those items getting into the wrong hands, corruption is also a major challenge, as those tasked with sharing those resources might as well keep them for themselves or chose to sell them to make a quick buck, and finally, I am nor sure we have the financial wherewithal to support such an agenda since oil prices have gone down, and we do not know how long this pandemic will last.

Problem Definition.

The problem then becomes; “How Might We curtail the spread of the coronavirus, while keeping any adverse economic effects at a minimum”.

Ideation

A team of stakeholders from various fields are gathered to brainstorm a solution to the problem outlined above. Experts from Academia, Medicine, Economics, Politics, traditional heads, religious leaders, business leaders, Trade unions and groups are gathered to brainstorm a solution. Concessions are made; public gatherings above a certain amount that cannot be properly controlled are banned, all schooling and academic activity are on hold, Markets are shifted to smaller clusters were social distancing procedures can be properly enforced. Mandatory laws are passed that prohibit moving around in public places without a face mask and hand gloves. The Government supplies hand gloves and face masks to Lower income households that can’t afford them.

Companies that can afford to embrace remote ways of working are encouraged to do so, transport services are given passenger carrying limits. New media services are inaugurated to curb the spread of fake news, rumors, and conspiracy theories.

Prototype

This solution is tested over a 2 weeks time bound trial to observe the results.

Testing.

On trial, it is observed that although people are satisfied with this solution, businesses that may be affected by the pandemic may need some form of financial bailouts to avoid going bankrupt and flooding the labor market which would have an adverse effect on the economy.

Iteration

A reiteration occurs to make sure bailouts are placed on the table to allow businesses directly affected by the pandemic to be able to keep their respective jobs.

This is a design driven approach that could have been embraced to curb and reduce the resultant adverse effect on the economy that a lockdown would have caused, and also to try and arrest the spread of the virus.

What to do now.

Enough hindsight, now to move with foresight, what strategies can the government employ to soften and put an end to the economic side effects of the lockdown procedure?

Design is also the answer.

The problem the Nigerian Government is presently facing when it comes to handling the long-term economic repercussions of the lockdown and the pandemic itself is what we designers call ‘Wicked Problems’. Wicked problems are problems that are complex and require more than a linear process to resolve.

One of the ways to solve a wicked problem, is to engage systems thinking.

System thinking is an approach to problem solving that is based on breaking up problems into systems to gain a holistic view of the situation, knowing fully well that a tweak in any part of a system, will invariably instigate a change in another.

The truth is, the root cause of poverty is a lack of proper and quality education. That means a tweak in the quality of education will invariably affect poverty levels. This is no magic button, this is a long-term strategy.

The Federal Government has to use this opportunity to invest in its human resources. The vast majority of Nigerians are either uneducated, or poorly educated. The school system is based on delivering the ‘Minimum required Quality’, this is why people graduate from institutions of higher learning, and have no valuable skills to add value with.

The Government needs to invest in quality skills acquisition. Not the conventional ‘teaching people to make beads and bake cake’, but teaching the skills of the future. With oil prices dwindling, and the world gradually beginning to embrace clean energy, the coronavirus pandemic has given Nigeria an opportunity to do what it should have done a long time ago, we need to teach the skills of the future, we need to up skill our populace.

How to do so.

  • Instead of importing people, or giving “.PhD holders.” These privileges, it is better we tap into the tech ecosystem already resident In Nigeria, and give opportunity to the young men and women all over Nigeria who are active members in the Nigerian tech space to facilitate this transformation.
  • Create a system whereby those interested would be allowed to volunteer to teach valuable technology skills part-time in under served communities that are willing to learn.
  • Those involved should be given some kind of compensation for their time.
  • The Government should promote the program as a rallying call to ignite the patriotism of Nigerians to come together to fight a common cause.

If the Government can support this initiative, and really see it as a top priority, the up skilling of the general populace, to prepare Nigeria to be competitive and relevant in a world where technology is the new norm, we then may be able to use this coronavirus pandemic to our advantage, and birth the beginning of a new Nigeria.